Forecast exchange market October 5, 2015 EUR / US D
Last week, the main event was the release of the forex data on the labor market in the US in September. Weak performance report disappointed market participants.Nonfarm payrolls in September amounted to 142 thousand., While the negative side was the revision of the figure for August. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at 25.09 dollars an hour. In this regard, traders staged a sell-grenbeka against all major currencies. The euro paired with American EUR / USD closed the day at 1.1212, the sterling exchange rate with bucks the GBP / USD 1.5176, and the dollar in tandem with the Japanese yen USD / JPY at 119.90.
The main events of forex, which should pay attention:
11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the services sector in September (the previous value of 55.6, forecast 56.4).
12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Retail Sales for September (the previous value of 0.4% m / m forecast -0.1% m / m).
17.00 MSK. USA: A composite index for the ISM non-production sphere in September (the previous value of 59, the forecast 58.0).
The euro exchange rate against the dollar EUR / USD forecast today 05/10/2015
On Friday, the weak labor market data in the US for September disappointed market participants. Non-Farm index fell to its lowest level since March of this year, while the average salary compared to August did not change and remained at the same level of $ 25.09 / hour. These measures reduce inflation expectations, it jeopardizes US Fed rate hike before the end of the year. It is natural at this report and the reaction of the bond market - the yield on 10-year bonds for a few hours fell by 15 bp, which caused a sell-off of greenbacks. Today, the euro is formed moderately positive background.
Firstly, the yield differential of US and German government bonds the US and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of States.
Secondly, a weak report on private sector employment points to a negative output of the release business climate for services from the ISM, which also negatively affect the course of American.
Forex recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD): Today, traders on the euro in tandem with the purchase of greenbacks worth discovering Buy's depreciation of the euro to 1.1190 / 1.1155 and 1.1245 at Target.
Levels euro dollar today: support levels 1.1155 - 1.1096 and resistance levels: 1.1216-1.1269.
The pound to dollar GBP / USD forecast today 05/10/2015
In currency markets Fores, now corrective gains the pound against the dollar may continue. PMI indicators of industrial and construction sector in September show a positive trend with the improvement of the labor market. Reducing unemployment and income growth contributes to economic growth in Britain. In this regard, today you can probably wait for a moderately positive data on the PMI for the services sector, which will support the currency in England. In favor of sterling and the situation in the credit markets: a negative yield spread of 10-year-old British and American government bonds at the end of last week fell by 8.6 bp Oil on Monday could show a moderate increase in prices amid a sharp reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes has reported last week the closure of 29 rigs. Rising oil prices will put pressure on the greenback, as energy costs are denominated in US dollars.
Forex recommendations on the pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD): Today during the day traders should open a Buy position at reducing the pound to the .5150 / 1.5125 and goals at the level of 1.5200.
The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5169 - 1.5101 and resistance levels: 1.5206- 1.5271.
The dollar against the yen USD / JPY forecast for today 05/10/2015
The Japanese yen was unable to gain a foothold below the 119 figure despite the negative report on the state of the labor market - the dollar yen pair has strong buyers who are buying all strong drawdown is not the first time that the rate is pushing USDJPY up. However, the weak employment data led to a significant peak yields of short-term Treasury bonds, signaling that the end of the year the Fed will not raise rates. Inflation expectations in the US economy down, but this year, the rise in real wages, which had a positive impact on economic growth. Against this background, the US economy is still too early to write off. Now the euro is the dollar interest rate differential will determine the course of trade, and this figure is now clearly in favor of the yen. It must be said that the strengthening of the currency Japan will again deter buyers who are buying to increase in the 119 figure.
Forex recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY): Today, for trading in the market traders should open Sell position in the growth of the dollar, the yen to 120.15 / 120.45 and take profit at 119.40.
Support and resistance levels the dollar yen pair today: support levels: 119.29 - 118.98 and resistance levels: 120.09 - 120.36.