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Main » 2016 » September » 4 » Forex forecast for today 05.09.2016: GBP / USD gains after NFP, EUR / USD - lateral trade!
Forex forecast for today 05.09.2016: GBP / USD gains after NFP, EUR / USD - lateral trade!



Forex weather on September 5, 2016, EUR / USD


The main event today Forex:
11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index of the PMI for the services sector in August (the previous value of 47.4, forecast 49.1). 
US - bank holiday


Forex forecast the currency pair EUR USD EUR / USD 5 September 2016


Given a pair of euro dollar mixed pattern formed today. Negative disappointing Non Farm Data forex market participants, and investors are losing interest to the dollar



First, the dollar has fascinated traders, now comes the disappointment. Employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 151 thousand., While the consensus forecast of 180 thousand. A year earlier figure of 150 thousand. During the summer employment increased by 697 thousand., Which is 6.4% more than in 2015. But this background, it would seem that the dynamics of a moderately positive and not worry about anything. But in the eight months of this year, employment growth rate was reduced by 17%. This is primarily due to the strong fall in employment growth in the key sector of the US economy: the growth in the services sector declined by 22.3% in annual terms. The worst feeling is still the manufacturing sector, where employment from the beginning of the year decreased by 39 thousand. In this regard, in the short term is likely demand for the euro. However, investors may use the euro to fund carry trade operations, as was the case on Friday, it will put pressure on the euro exchange rate. 

 Euro Dollar recommendations for today: the Euro Players are paired with greenbacks today worth waiting lateral trade in the foreign exchange market in a range of e  1.1100 -1.1216



Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD today 09/05/2016


Investors on the British currency in the pair with the US dollar today, the first trading day of the week is to open long positions. And there are two reasons:


First , Markit data on business activity manufacturing and construction sectors of the United Kingdom have shown pozitivv August, against this background that today, players can look forward to a positive output of the report the same indicator for the services sector. Data output slightly better than expected median support customers pound for opening long positions. 

Second , the credit markets is increasing the profitability of British 10-year government bonds to German and American, it increases the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion. NFP in the United States did not meet expectations of market participants: the key figures out worse than the consensus forecast, which put an end to the September increase in the US Fed Funds rate. Now investors do not expect a change in monetary policy in Amerikke earlier on 14 December. Briton last two months of trading in flat trading 1.2796 -1.3479 and taking into account the US negative macroeconomic statistics, the chances of testing the upper limit of the defined range increased. 


Pound Dollar recommendations for today : traders for the sterling to the dollar today worth buying Forex pair GBP / USD Buy on the reduction of quotations to 1.3270 / 1.3240 and take profit at the level of 1.3330.




Forex rate forecast pair USD JPY USD / JPY today 09/05/2016


The USD / JPY pair the situation is quite confusing. There are reasons for the growth and decline of quotations ..


What is positive for the pair USD / JPY The? . Investors on Friday increased "appetite for risk", this tradition is positive and supports the course of pair USD / JPY, as traders actively carry out operations via the carry trade yen. In the US stock market on Friday, the leader of growth was the index high-tech Nasdaq, and on the background correction of oil have shown the highest growth of the energy sector paper. VIX fear index on the day immediately fell by 11.1%, to the level of 11.98, it is at least the last two weeks.

What is negative for the dollar yen pair?   It refers negatives resliz weak labor market in the United States and in this regard, investors disappointment regarding the imminent FOMC monetary policy changes. This year, investors are waiting for the two press conference the head of the Fed (21 September and 14 December), and it is expected that at some of these days, the controller will raise the rate that would support the US currency. In the last two weeks the market was tuned to a positive outcome - expectations of a rate hike in September grew every day. However, Non-Farm and data on average earnings for August came out worse than expected median, which does not allow to count on rates of change in the current month. Janet Yellen spoke directly with colleagues what employment report September 2 will be decisive in the matter of monetary policy changes. Nelsya discounted and reduced the differential in yield of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds: reduced rate the last three trading days in a row, which usually causes a decrease in quotations of the pair. 


Dollar Yen recommendations for today : forex traders today in trading on the pair USD / JPU worth waiting for the flat in the range 03.00 -104.40








Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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