Forex weather on May 3, 2018
Events traders today:
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for services in April (the previous value of 51.7, forecast 53.3).
17:00 MSK. US: ISM composite index for the non-production sphere in April (the previous value of 58.8, forecast 58.1).
The euro \ usd forex EUR / USD forecast for today 05/03/2018
At yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve to leave interest rate unchanged and stated that the rate increase will be "gradual". Journalists immediately began to claim that the Fed's comments disappointed investors who expected a fourfold increase in rates this year. In our opinion there are no factors that would point to a fourfold increase in rates. FOMC fears quickly to raise rates, as this may cause a recession in the economy. US central bank leadership is well aware of and in connection with this, the last two years very carefully raises interest rates. Increase by "a little" and always say that the current economic growth is not enough for faster rate hikes. And they are right, because the unemployment rate U6 form is 8%. Eventually,
EUR / USD today recommendation: Buy 1,1980 / 1,1950 and take profit 1,2033.
Pound \ dollar forex forecast pair GBP / USD today 05/03/2018
GBP / USD - now two reasons to open long positions.
First, the growth yield on 10-year British securities in the credit market in the US and German bonds, it will support quotes the Briton. Based on the dynamics of the futures market in Chicago - the US Federal Reserve this year twice (June and September) increase the recorded rate. Dollar is a neutral factor, as the market has long expected it. In this regard, the strengthening of the American currency cycle is nearing its logical conclusion in the next two weeks, players forex Toit likely to expect to wait for the correction of greenbacks.
The second on the commodities market, the demand for metals and energy, it is negative for the dollar, due to the inverse correlation of commodities and the dollar index USDX.
GBP / USD today recommendation: Buy 1,3590 / 1,3560 and take profit 1,3655.
Forex rate forecast for the dollar yen pair USD / JPY today 05/03/2018
USD / JPY today a mixed background. On the one hand, it is possible depreciation against the backdrop of negativity on the credit market, where the yield differential of US and Japanese 10-letnihbumag shows a decline. USD / JPY pair went up to 110.00 psychological level and we can expect profit-taking on long positions. On the other hand, the decrease in the index of "fear" VIX S & P500 indicates the growing interest of investors to "risky assets", which in turn can cheer bulls to build long positions. It's hard to understand which of the two factors will have a greater impact on the course of trading?
USD / JPY today recommended: flat 109,17-110,10.
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