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Main » 2016 » May » 3 » Forex forecast for today 05/03/2016: The dollar will be strengthened before the NFP!
Forex forecast for today 05/03/2016: The dollar will be strengthened before the NFP!

Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 03/05/2016

The publication of strong data business activity in Germany and the Eurozone has become the driver of the next rise of the single European currency in trading on Monday. Indicators were really quite positive: Germany Index reached 51.8 points in April compared with the previous month to 50.7 points;Eurozone April index was 51.7 points, while the previous month - 51.6. Against this backdrop, demand for the euro resumed its growth and instigated the "bulls" on new purchases of the single European currency.



In turn, the US dollar in yesterday's trading was under pressure. The sharp decline in ISM manufacturing index (50.8 against 51.8 the previous value) and weak data in business activity in the industrial sector, not by reaching the forecast showed that in the US the March recovery was not sustainable. This has further strengthened the negative market sentiment for the dollar, as more and more investors are beginning to consider the preservation of the current interest rate and the "soft" Federal Reserve monetary policy unchanged as the most probable event in 2016. Against this backdrop, the dollar actively selling and trading at the end of a pair of course, the first time in eight months, broke through a key resistance level of 1.15, and fixing a new maximum price level 1.1532.



The euro dollar forecast for today: assuming the completion of the upward movement of the pair  euro / dollar  at the current price levels and a reversal of the course the single European currency to reduce to the following target levels: 1.1515, 1.15, 1.1465, and 1.1437.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The appreciation of the British pound in recent weeks reflected a positive shift in public opinion surveys on the UK's membership of the EU. Increasing the number of supporters to stay in the EU and reducing the fear of negative option allowed "bulls" on the pound regain lost earlier position. At yesterday's auction buyers optimism and confidence that "Brekzit" will not pass again became upward momentum driver pair. After a sluggish Asian session quote currency broke out of the narrow range and formed on the rise next 4-month high at around 1.4695.

However, concern about the referendum results still remains. About 20% of respondents still have not decided on their preferences, so to speak about predetermination of choice is clearly premature. In this regard, the "bulls" prefer not to stay in purchases, fixing profits in the short-term transactions each day before the announcement of the poll results. In yesterday's trading profit also started immediately after reaching a new high. However, the correction was negligible and at the end of trading recorded a pair of closing at the level of 1.4660.

Pound Dollar forecast for today assume the completion of the corrective pullback in the pair key resistance level of 1.47, and then turn the British currency to decline to target levels 1.4647, 1.4562 and 1.46.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold today

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.


In morning trading on Monday, gold futures resumed growth against the backdrop of the continuing weakening of the US currency. Quotes of the metal has the 6th consecutive session making new highs. Bidding took place on a rather "thin" market and in terms of reduced liquidity, as regional markets in China and the UK were closed on the occasion of May Day. Against this background, an attempt to "bull" to break above the important psychological level of $ 1,300 an ounce failed.

Having tested daily high at around $ 1303.55, the players started to take profits and close the deal on the purchase of metal. Risks gold correction is now quite large, given the rapid and continuous growth of the metal value. This, apparently, and was reflected in the dynamics of trading, demonstrated in the US session on the achieved price correction in the middle of the day maximum.

As a result, the price of gold fell slightly (by $ 2.98) and at the end of trading on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» fixed closing level 1289.69 $ per troy ounce.

As of this morning a significant near-term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight turn $ 1294 per ounce.

The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes: $ 1300, $ 1304 and $ 1308 per ounce.

Immediate support for the gold price has settled at the level of $ 1287 per ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1283, $ 1280, $ 1277 and $ 1273 per troy ounce.

In our forecast for Tuesday we expect the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Prediction silver rate today 05/03/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.


Silver on Monday trading influenced by the same factors duplicated the price dynamics of gold. Reaching to the rise of a new 15-month high of $ 18 per ounce, the metal quotes turned on correction. By the end of the metal has lost a part of their weekly progress and finished trading at a price level 17.53 $ per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of daytime turning $ 17.65 per ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 18, $ 18.18 and $ 18.47 per ounce.

Immediate support for the silver is located at the price level of $ 17.77 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 17.40, $ 17.15 and $ 16.65 per ounce.

In our forecast on silver also we expect the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar on Tuesday in the center of market attention will be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be maintained at the same level - 2%.  
Considerable interest will cause the publication of the April index of business activity for the production sector in China and the UK.  
Australia will publish today the federal budget for 2016 and will report at the March changes in the volume of building permits issued .  
in Switzerland, will be released quarterly index of consumer sentiment.  
The euro zone will present the March producer price index.  
and the US will be published ISM manufacturing index in New York and the May index of economic optimism.  
Today, the performances by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, as well as representatives of the Fed and the ECB - Loretta Mester, John Williams and Benoit Ker.  
In Japan, the Day of the Constitution. Markets are closed, the statistics will not be published.



Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.



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