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Main » 2016 » May » 2 » Forex forecast for today 05/02/2016: The Fed continues to keep the dollar under pressure! Euro again among the leaders!
Forex forecast for today 05/02/2016: The Fed continues to keep the dollar under pressure! Euro again among the leaders!

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 05/02/2016

At the auction on Friday, the euro continued to strengthen against the US currency. "Bulls" confidently stormed to new heights, ignoring the negative economic statistics from the euro area, according to which the turnover of retail trade in Germany, the leading economy in the region plummeted to the level of (minus) 1.1%, despite the fact that the market is expected to increase to (plus) 0.3%.





Positive market sentiment against the euro further intensified after the speech of ECB chief economist Peter Preta. He said that negative interest rates can be applied only in the case when the economic situation in the region deteriorates seriously, although he had previously claimed that the lower limit of interest rates has not yet been reached. The market took these words as a confirmation that the ECB has no plans to loosen monetary policy.

As a result, the pair exchange rate against the backdrop of increased demand for euro exceeded the maximum of the previous day's 1.1368 and tested on the rise the price level 1.1414.Posledovavshaya then publication of strong data Eurozone GDP that showed in the 1st quarter of this year, growth in GDP to 0.6% (the forecast of 0.3% ), as well as the reduction of unemployment in the region - all of this was an additional incentive for investors to buy euros. At the same time, market participants 'left behind' negative again European, showed a regular decrease in the inflation data on consumer price inflation minus 0.2% compared with the previous level of 0%. As a result, the pair reached the rate of new half-yearly highs by the end of the day and gave the closing weekly trading session at around 1.1450.

The forecast of the euro / dollar today: the anticipated completion of the upward movement pair  euro / dollar  in the price zone 1.1465 ÷ 1.15, then the resumption depreciation of the single European currency to the following target levels: 1.1437, 1.1420, 1.14. 1.1385.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 05/02/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

On Friday, the Forex Briton held in a narrow sideways range bound 1.4663 and 1.4575. The sharp weakening of the dollar across the spectrum of the currency market and the positive economic statistics the UK, reflecting the growth in mortgage and consumer lending and an increase in loans to private individuals, provided support to the British currency and allowed the "bulls" on the pound maintain its position in the area 4-month highs .

However, to continue with the upward trend, taking advantage of favorable market mood, it failed. The sharp decline of the pound against the single European currency pair kept course in the current price range, and below the previous day's close. Such dynamics shows some easing of the upward momentum in the price movement of the British currency.

Pound Dollar Forecast for today: assuming the completion of corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.4670 ÷ 1.47, and then turn the British currency to decline towards the key support level - 1.46. If we can push this level, then the pair will continue to decline in the following objectives: 1.4562, 1.4525, 1.45.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/05/2016

XAU / USD, 4 hours. 


Gold prices rose again in trading on Friday as weakness of the dollar against the backdrop of another soft accompanying statement to the Fed decision, increased the demand for "defensive" assets. In addition, rising prices for raw materials and energy also supported precious metals, because they are in direct correlation with gold. As a result, the value of the metal on Friday updated its 15-month high and at the end of trading on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» increased by $ 31.13, reaching a level of $ 1296.52 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near significant resistance for gold held by the previous local maximum of $ 1296.52 per ounce.

The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes: $ 1300, $ 1304 and $ 1308 per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at the level of daylight turn $ 1285 per ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1280, $ 1277 and $ 1273 per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today : expect the completion of the previous correction in the metal price zone $ 1296 ÷ 1308 $ per ounce, and then turn and renewal to reduce the cost of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.


Silver at auction on Friday also kept an upward trend, following the trend in the commodities market and the gold market. Quotes of the metal for the past two weeks kept above the yearly highs, and at auction on Friday received also an additional impetus to growth, after the Bank of Japan's decision to refrain from easing monetary policy has led to the strengthening of the yen and a sharp weakening of the dollar.

As a result, the price of silver has risen in July to the highest bidder on Friday at 29 cents, and at the close of the New York Stock Exchange "Somex" fixed level of $ 17.82 per ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through the previous local maximum of $ 17.95 per ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 18.17, $ 18.47 and $ 19 per ounce.

Immediate support for silver settled at $ 17.77 a reversal day per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 17.52, $ 17.40 and $ 17.10 per ounce.

Silver today forecast assuming completion of the correction in metal rollback significant resistance level of $ 18.17 cents per ounce, and then turn and resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Monday, investors will attract significant publications in the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and the April index of business activity for the production sector. The corresponding figures will be published in the Eurozone, as well as in the leading economies in the region of Germany, France, Italy and Spain.  
In addition, considerable interest will be the US publication of the ISM manufacturing index for April.  
Australia will publish the index of business confidence; April's inflation data, as well as indices of commodity prices and raw material prices.  
Switzerland will report by March changes in retail sales.  
And in the statistics of the United States will be published changes in the volume of expenditure in the construction sector in March and the review of loan officers for the 1st quarter. 
Today, the performances by the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan and the representatives of the Fed and the ECB -. Dennis Lockhart and Jens Weidmann 
in the UK and in China today celebrate May Day and labor Day, respectively. Markets are closed, the statistics will not be published.





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