Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 04/12/2015
Amid expectations of a new reduction of the introduction of the euro by the European Central Bank additional stimulus, the euro / dollar during the Asian session on Thursday continued sluggish correction from the previous decrease in pair. Under intensifying "bearish" pressure of currency quotes tested the previous low 1.0518, after which, the price dynamics of the pair has completely changed.
Central Bank announced the list of additional measures to support the financial markets and completely disappointed. The base interest rate was left at the same level - 0.05% per annum; moreover, it has been preserved and the volume of purchase of assets - at the level of 60 billion euros per month. Hopes for aggressive reduction of interest rates on deposits are not justified (approx .: total of 10 points, with expectations - minus 20), and Mario Draghi at a press conference just added a list of unfulfilled hopes, saying that the program of financial investments will be extended to March 2017 and possibly for a longer period, but the amount of monthly purchases remain the same. Do not save the situation and expand the list of assets that will be acquired under the program, as well as allusions to the possibility of adjusting the program in the future.In all these measures, EUR / USD reacted reversal of price movement, the rapid growth rate (+ 460 points) and landslide liquidation of short positions on the euro. As a result, by the end of the day, quotes, currency recorded a new 2-week high of 1.0981, while drastically changing the technical picture of the situation and formed a potential for further growth of the pair.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar today in the forecast assumed - corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.0813 ÷ 1.0750. Further, the rise is expected to resume single European currency, and testing the previous local maximum 1.0981. If this level is broken, we assume further growth of the pair to target levels: 1.10; 1.1034 and 1.1068.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 04/12/2015
UK seems out of the crisis - the most important business activity sphere of the economy of Albion - the service sector in November once again demonstrated the strengthening. According to data released yesterday Purchasing Managers Index in this sector has grown at an accelerated pace - 55.9 (the highest since July), compared with 54.9 in October. Investors now suggest that the service sector will be able to compensate for the slowdown in the previous quarter and in the last 4th quarter of this year to increase economic growth in the country. Against this background, the pair completed a previous decline and began to grow. However, the main driver of growth in the British currency in the day turned out to be the outcome of the ECB meeting. Recognition of European regulators that the Eurozone economy is not in need of aggressive incentives, as well as the rally of the single currency against the US dollar provoked a "bull" pound for similar action. A wave of increased demand for the pound and active buying a pair allowed to recover nearly 2-week loss of the British currency (250 points) and build its new high price level of 1.5157, ending the trading session near this level.
The pound against the dollar today in the forecast assumed - corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.5085 ÷ 1.5065. Furthermore, we expect renewed upsurge of the British currency, and testing the previous local maximum 1.5157. If this level is broken, we assume further growth of the pair to target levels: 1.5188;1.52 and 1.5268.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 04/12/2015
Gold futures on Thursday showed the lowest closing level in nearly six years since the November increase in employment in the private sector of the US economy and comments by Federal Reserve Janet Yellen endorsed the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates at its December meeting. Gold Against this background tested for lowering the price level of $ 1046.27 an ounce. However, a few hours before the ECB meeting metal price dynamics changed. Extremely low price of gold and the fact that the dollar is significantly overbought and the price already includes nearly all the positive from the upcoming December interest rate increase (and therefore, investors may be wary of a sharp rise in the US currency after the Fed meeting) provoked "bulls" to start buying the precious metal. The subsequent correction of the euro after the announcement of the outcome of the ECB meeting, has weakened the dollar and strengthened even more "bullish" mood of the market. As a result, the price of the metal reached a daily high of $ 1065.38 per ounce, which is near the US session, and completed its work.
As of this morning near term resistance level for gold is held weekly reversal - $ 1063 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal target levels - $ 1068; $ 1071 and $ 1075 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is at the level - $ 1060. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1057, $ 1052 and $ 1044 per troy ounce.
Rate of gold today in the forecast assumed - decrease in quotations of the metal in the zone of price 1058 $ ÷ $ 1 052 per ounce, and then - the resumption of growth in the value of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Forex. Silver Forecast for today 04/12/2015
Silver showed quite similar dynamics and completing a morning decline in the price level of $ 13.82 per ounce, turned to the upward movement. By the end of the day the price of the metal has recorded high of $ 14.15 an ounce, while maintaining and potential for further growth.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver also passes on his weekly reversal level - $ 14.11 per ounce.If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.15; $ 14.20 and $ 14.24 per ounce. Immediate support for silver settled at a price level - $ 14.05 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the following objectives - $ 14; $ 13.95; $ 13.90 per ounce and lower.
The forecast for silver forward - decrease in quotations of the metal in the zone price 14.05 $ ÷ 13.95 $ per ounce, and then - the resumption of growth in the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.
On the economic calendar, Friday the focus of the market will be the main report on non-farm employment in the public sector of the US economy and the unemployment rate (5%), as well as changes in the number of people employed in the manufacturing and the private sector; the proportion of the economically active population; changes in the average hourly earnings and average weekly working hours. Similar data will be published in Canada and other highly significant figures will be published in these countries totals trade balance for October.
Among other economic news - Japan will release the October changes in the level of wages and real incomes, as well as the November consumer confidence index. Germany will report on the dynamics of the volume of industrial orders for October. Switzerland will publish the consumer price index for November. The euro zone, Germany, France and Italy will publish the November index of business activity for the retail sector. Australia will present the October changes in the volume of retail trade. Switzerland will publish the October consumer price index. Today will be the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.
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