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Main » 2015 » December » 4 » Forex forecast for today 04/12/2015: The dollar is not necessary to write off!
Forex forecast for today 04/12/2015: The dollar is not necessary to write off!

Currency market forecast for December 4th, 2015 EUR / USD

Forex news traders to note:

04.30 MSK. Japan: Changes in the level of wages in October (the previous value of 0.6% y / y; the forecast of 0.6% y / y).

16.30 MSK. US unemployment rate in November (the previous value of 5.0%, forecast 5.0%).

16.30 MSK. US: Change in the number of non-farm payrolls in November (the previous value of 271K, forecast 201K).

16.30 MSK. US: Changes in average hourly wages in November (the previous value of 0.4% m / m forecast 0.2% m / m).

16.30 MSK. US trade balance for October (the previous value -40.81B; forecast -40.6B).

Meeting of Petroleum Exporting Countries 



The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD forecast for 04/12/2015

Yesterday's decision Tsentorabnka Eurozone increased stimulus package to 420 billion. Euros to 1 April 2017 caused a mixed reaction of the market. Rather than reducing the euro area in the fifth figure took the test the support level of 1.0520, and then a strong rise in the euro to above dolalru ninth figure. The dollar index (USDX) established a fresh multi-year highs at 100.58 before the performance, Mario Draghi, and the foreign exchange market began to massively close long positions on the greenback, prompting strong demand for Euro-currency. Rather, the sale of green is a correction as the market has reached extremes. The decision of the ECB is the euro in the medium term, a negative factor, since QE program has increased by 41%. In Europe, the money is still cheap, and a lot of money. Mario Draghi said: "The period of abundance of liquidity will be long."Inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017 yy revised negative side, depriving the euro strong growth. And the head of the Fed's Janet Yellen speaking on Thursday, saying it is too long a delay raising rates poses some risks. The head of FED reiterated the positive trend on the labor market, which in the long run will contribute to the achievement of the target level of inflation. Against this backdrop, today the European currency in the first half of trading will test region the tenth figure and at auction in the United States is waiting for the strengthening of American traders. 

Recommendations for the euro dollar: Today traders in the first half of the session is to sell a couple of EUROUSD Sell on the growth rate of the euro to 1.1010 / 1.1040 and closed at 1.0845 position. 

Euro dollar today following levels: support levels 1.0915 - 1.0845 and resistance levels: 1.0958 -1.1017.


Recommendations for the euro dollar


The pound against the dollar today GBP / USD forecast for 04/12/2015

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen commented - "We want to see continued strong growth in employment in Friday's employment data." In this regard, today investors will be the main event of the output data on the labor market in the US in November, as this report is to dot the "I" on the issue of change of monetary policy the US Federal Reserve on December 16. The data for the ISM services and manufacturing sector point to the release is at the level of 200 thousand. ADP on Wednesday, December 2 has reported an increase in private sector employment by 217 thousand. Indicator 4-week average of applications for unemployment benefits in November rose by 6.5 thousand . is moderately negative factor for the non-farm payrolls. Today, on this background is to wait for the data within the range of 200-210 thousand., That support the American. You can not leave without attention and the OPEC meeting. Most likely, the cartel members would not agree now to reduce oil production quotas, since the meeting of world oil exporters in Vienna in mid-October, almost all market players spoke sharply against those measures. Against this background, waiting for that for a period of time, the mood in the camp of the cartel have changed dramatically in the opposite direction is difficult. The growth of the US currency on the positive labor market will put pressure on oil prices, and today Brent and WTI is worth waiting for continuation of reduction. It embolden sellers sterling to build short positions. 

Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD: Today, sterling traders paired with greenbacks is selling a pair of GBPUSD in the second half of trading Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.5190 / 1.5225 and exhibit a take in the area 1.5080.

The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5101 - 1.5052 and resistance levels: 1.5169- 1.5206.


Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD


The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY: the forecast for 04/12/2015

Players forex today in the first half of trading worth waiting for reducing the area of ​​the pair quotes the lower limit of the flat three-week 122.22 as the dollar index at 38.2% correction level is set at around 97.50.Yesterday's forex roar was mass closure of purchase US dollar after the dollar index hit multi-year highs.Yesterday's decline is just a correction, not a trend reversal.

Firstly, after the speech of the US Federal Reserve D. Yellen yield of two-year Treasury bond jumped to 1%, setting a new peak for the last five and a half years. Thus, the market believed in the higher interest rates on December 16 FOMC.

Secondly, yesterday the ISM has reported an increase in employment in the service sectors 8 out of 13, indicating a continuation of the positive momentum on the Non-Farm.

Third, despite the fact that the greenback on Thursday underwent Sales - the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds widened by 8.6 basis points, exceeding the current level of the opening of the trading week, which clearly indicates an increase in interest in assets in the United States. In this regard, the current depreciation of the dollar, the yen should be considered as an excellent opportunity to open and build long positions in American, based on the continued steady growth of quotations. 

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair: This morning traders trading the dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair USDJPY Buy on reducing the price to 122.15 / 121.85 and 123.30 at Target.

Dollar Yen levels for today: support levels: 122.22 - 121.84 and resistance levels: 122.61 - 123.00.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»



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