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Main » 2016 » April » 1 » Forex forecast for today 04/01/2016: Report on employment in the US will determine the dynamics of the major currencies in the coming days!
Forex forecast for today 04/01/2016: Report on employment in the US will determine the dynamics of the major currencies in the coming days!

Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/04/2016

The euro exchange rate against the dollar steadily increasing for the 4th day in a row. Yesterday the quote currency reached and tested the next resistance level of 1.14, fixing a maximum lift at the level of 1.1411. The driver of the current growth of the euro against the US dollar continued to be pessimistic Fed and weak economic statistics from the US.  



data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits released yesterday showed an increase in the number of unemployed in the United States to the level of a 2-month high (+ 11 thousand -. to the level of 276 thousand.). This was a good enough reason to continue selling the dollar and strengthening of the single European currency. By early today, the euro is trying to consolidate its position at the current level and continue the restoration, but in anticipation of the publication of the main report on employment in the United States to achieve this is not yet possible. Nevertheless, on the basis of the report the price dynamics of the pair can change dramatically. Strong data «Non-Farm Payrolls», together with the positive statistics on the average wage could convince the market that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates will continue, and in this case, the dollar will get a long-awaited support. However, if the release will be weak, the euro will resume its upward trend and will continue to rise.


Forecast the dollar to the euro today assume - the lateral dynamics of the pair in the range of 1.1385 ÷ 1.1340 with a bias to the downside. The breakdown of one of the band as a result of the US employment report will determine the boundaries of the direction of price dynamics of the single European currency before the end of the day.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 04/01/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

GBP \ USD  rose in yesterday's trading, following the publication of the revised data in the direction of increase in the growth of GDP for the 4th quarter. GDP volume growth for the quarter was 0.6% (0.5% - according to the forecast), and for 2015 the volume of GDP increased by 2.1% compared to 1.9% - according to the forecast. In addition, despite the British exit from the EU concerns, the economic index of consumer confidence remained unchanged, reflecting the positive mood of consumers in regard to personal financial situation. These data allowed the "bulls" to resume climbing pair. However, the message about the results of recent surveys on the upcoming referendum and stop the rise of the pair from 1.4425 level reached a maximum deployed British currency to decline. Polls showed an increase of British preference for the country's exit from the EU structure.For that to stay in the EU, is now ready to vote 51% of the population, and for the output - 49%, while the previous survey results showed a correlation - 53% and 47%, respectively. Against this background, the demand for the British pound fell, and the pair began to correct the course of the previous growth, ending trading at 1.4363 price level.


Pound Dollar forecast for today assume - the continuation of the corrective decline of the British currency to the price levels: 1.43; 1.4265; 1.4230 and possibly to the key support level of 1.42. Next, we look for a reversal and resumption of the upward movement of the pair to the previous local maximum of 1.4457 and above.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date 01/04/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

The price of gold in the precious metals market resumed growth in trading yesterday, as investors continued to win back the soft comments of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen on the prospects for monetary policy of the country, causing further weakening of the US currency. Nevertheless, in spite of the initial activity of the "bulls", metal price growth was relatively brief and was stopped at the level of $ 1240.21, and have not reached the previous day's highs. On the market there were reports about the outflow of funds (the second day in a row) of the specialized exchange-traded funds in gold. In addition, the appeal of gold has once again decreased due to growth in investor interest in buying risky assets in the stock market, allowing to get the most profit from their investment. As a result, the metal quotations came down and by the end of the day gold fell to $ 8.69 - to the level of $ 1231.52 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of daily and weekly rotation - $ 1238 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes: $ -1242; $ 1248 and $ 1251 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 1232 per ounce. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels: $ 1229; $ 1226; $ 1219 and $ 1214 per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today expect - a short-term corrective pullback, and then continue to reduce the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Prediction silver rate today 04/01/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

silver market is influenced by similar factors continued to duplicate the gold price trend. At yesterday's auction metal quotes consistently broke the previous local maxima of the week ($ 15.29; $ 15.43), and tested the new top of the lift on the price level of $ 15.52 per ounce. Here investors to take profits, which led to a minor correction to the level of the metal $ 15.41 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of weekly reversal 15.42 $ per ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by a continuation of the rise to the target level - $ 15.52; $ 15.55; $ 15.65 and up. Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 15.36 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 15.30; $ 15.25; $ 15.20 per ounce and below.

Silver Forecast for today expect - another attempt to overcome the resistance of the metal layer 233-day moving average - $ 15.39, hour timeframe, and continue to rise to the above target levels of resistance. If the breakdown of this level will not take place, we expect a reversal and decline of silver to the above support levels.

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