Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 03/12/2015
The attempt of the Euro \ dollar continued recovery were unsuccessful: the growth of quotations of the euro was again stopped on the way to the price level of 1.0632, and then, in the course of trading in Europe, the pair tested on reducing the level of 1.0581, followed by continued sales of progress on the rollback of the maximum (1.0615 ). As a result, at auction in the United States, the euro \ dollar hit a new 7-month low at 1.0550.
The driver of this dynamic was the release of weak data on inflation in the euro area, to strengthen expectations of decisive action by the European Central Bank to combat the negative trend in consumer prices.According to the data, annual inflation in the euro area amounted to 19 in November - 0.1%, while analysts had expected the index to rise 0.2%. Against this background, the market strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank at its meeting on Thursday expand incentive programs. In particular, all 53 economists surveyed by the agency «Bloomberg», confirmed precisely such an outcome. November inflation figures and the continuing trend towards its further decrease quickly destroyed all the conquered positions against the dollar and is likely to convince investors that the monetary authorities in these conditions will apply even more radically. The attempted "bulls" on the euro attempt to recover losses and resume correction using negative US statistics, also had no success, although tested earlier Asian highs achieved. Thus, the beginning of today's Euro \ dollar remains under strong "bearish" pressure and is trading at a price level 1.0613.
However, the strongest oversold currency and the fact that all negative on possible solutions to the European Bank for further weakening of the euro has already taken into account in the currency rates, there is a fairly high probability of reversal pair on an upward correction, immediately after the announcement of the ECB's decision. Today, the euro against the dollar Prediction: expect - the completion of decrease in pair, turn and lift euro exchange rate to the target levels: 1.06; 1.0615; 1.0637; 1.0663 and 1.07.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 03/12/2015
The fall in the UK index of business activity in the construction sector hard blow to the British currency. The report disappointed investors in November, showing a decline to the level of 55.3 points, against the previous level of 58.5. Against the background of increasing dollar, declining euro and in a general nervousness of the market on the eve of the key events this week - the meetings of the ECB and the Federal Reserve System, the publication of another negative indicator of business activity provoked a collapse of the British currency, the rate of which reached on the reduction of the new 7-month low 1.4893. However, at the pound still remains a chance to return to an upward trend, as the depreciation of the pair reached the strong support level of 1.4928, and then tried to make a sample, but after failing to gain a foothold under it began to correct the previous fall. Pound / dollar today in the forecast We assume - an attempt to pair to test the breakdown previous local low 1.4893. Next, look for a turn and rise of the British currency to the target levels: 1.4953; 1.4988; 1.50; 1.5033 and 1.5087.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 04/12/2015
Gold trading yesterday resumed its decline, reaching their lowest levels in February 2010 - $ 1050.50 per ounce. The next driver falling metal became yesterday the speech of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen. In her speech, Ms. Yellen expressed confidence that the US economy will continue to grow moderately, with the reduction of unemployment and the growth of consumer prices to the target of 2%. The market took her statement as a sign of willingness to raise the regulator base rate on 16 December, and again began to buy the dollar, which negatively affected the value of gold. As a result, at the end of the day, February gold futures on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex fell $ 20.94 an ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the bottom of the channel in which the metal forms its movement from December of 2013 - $ 1053 per ounce, hour timeframe. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal target levels - $ 1058; $ 1063 and 1067. Immediate support for gold is at the level - $ 1044. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price level - $ 1032.50 per troy ounce.
Rate of gold today expect - the completion of the previous decline and resume growth in the value of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Forex. Silver Forecast for today 03/12/2015
Under the influence of the same factors similar dynamics on Thursday demonstrated and silver. After the cost of the metal gold price to plummet, having fallen in price by the end of trading at 30 cents to the level of $ 13.92 per ounce. As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of its daily rotation - $ 14 per ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.11 and $ 14.18 per ounce. Immediate support for silver settled at a price level - $ 13.95 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the next target - $ 13.80 and below.
Silver today in the forecast are expecting - the completion of the previous decline and resume growth in the cost of the metal to target the above-mentioned resistance levels.
The news block on Thursday - the focus of the market would be the decision of the European Central Bank's main interest rate, the rate on the deposit, and the accompanying statement to the decision. Immediately after the announcement of the outcome of the meeting held a press conference European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. On the same day will perform
Fed chairman Janet Yellen, and US statistics will be published weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits; the composite index for the ISM non-productive sphere, including the non-manufacturing sector employment index for November, as well as the dynamics of the volume of industrial orders for October.
Other very important indicators will be - published in Australia, Japan, China, UK, USA and Canada, the index of business activity in the services sector. The same indicators and composite indices, which include the combined figures for both sectors will be issued in the euro area and the region's leading economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
In other news - Japan will release November data on the volume of foreign investments into the economy of the country and the volume of capital invested abroad; Australia unveil totals trade balance for October, and the Eurozone will report on the October changes in the volume of retail trade. On the same day there will be address by the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Stanley Fischer.
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