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Main » 2016 » March » 11 » Forex forecast for today 03/11/2016: European Central Bank Surprises!
Forex forecast for today 03/11/2016: European Central Bank Surprises!

 Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

Markets yesterday did not expect surprises from the European Central Bank.But this time, the Bank has changed its usual caution. Following the meeting, the ECB introduced a range of stimulus measures, deciding to act simultaneously on all fronts. The interest rate has been reduced to 0% (this was a surprise). The deposit rate was also lowered to minus 0.4% (it is expected). lending rate decreased to 0.25% (this is also a surprise).



Monthly volume of financial investments within the asset purchase program from April will be increased to 80 billion. Euros (exceeded expectations). In addition, since June the ECB has decided to implement a program of 4-year lending (as banks will be able to seek additional liquidity and the volume of credits allocated will depend on how effectively banks provide funds for lending to the real sector of the economy). It is also not expected by the market.


Initial market response has led to increased sales of  euro  (up to 6-week minimum level of 1.0822), but immediately after the press conference, Mario Draghi, the European single currency regained losses and even exceeded its previous levels (which were before the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting). The driver of the recovery was the statement by the ECB that the measures implemented - is the limit. Draghi made ​​it clear that he sees no reason to further reduce interest rates and increase the incentives. These words caused a sharp reduction in short positions on euro and the rapid rise in prices. Course pair broke key levels on the rise of resistance 1.09, 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 and recorded a new high at around 1.1218 (396 pips).

In our euro forecast on Friday originally anticipated lateral movement of the pair in the range of 1.1150 ÷ 1.1215, and then continued corrective depreciation of the single European currency in the following price levels: 1.1122, 1.11, 1.1070, and 1.1034.

These recent levels expect the resumption of growth of currency in the direction of the previous local maximum of 1.1218 and above.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

From early morning on Thursday, the pair  pound / dollar  in anticipation of the announcement of the European Central Bank of the outcome of the meeting was trading in a narrow sideways range. Traders preferred to take a wait and see position and do not activate the deal.

The initial weakening of the euro and dollar growth (after the announcement of the decision and the press conference Draghi) is only slightly acted on the pound. From the upper boundary of the sideways range 1.4230 Course pair dipped to 1.4117 week low, and then followed by "allies" against the dollar resumed its growth.

The driver of the growth of the British currency was the statement by Draghi that the ECB stops further stimulate the economy and reducing interest rates. Further control actions are expected to be focused only on monetary tightening. "Bulls" pound positively welcomed the news, hoping for a similar behavior of the Bank of England. The demand for the British pound began to rise and the beginning of the American session the pair exchange rate hit a new 3-week high at 1.4315, which completed and day trading.

GBPUSD in the forecast for today, we assume a short-term pullback after the resumption of growth in the British currency to the target levels of 1.4315, 1.4340, 1.4360 and 1.4383.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold today

GBP / USD, for 4 hours.

On the eve of the meeting of the ECB's gold market was "bearish" pressure for the third day in a row. During early Asian session on Thursday, the metal traded at price level of $ 1245 an ounce, about $ 35 below a 13-month high reached last week. The pressure on prices exerted the strengthening of the US dollar and rising stock markets, which reduces the interest of investors to invest in "safe" protective assets (such as gold). The initial market reaction to the unexpected decision of the ECB and the failure to quotations week low was $ 1236.92 quickly recoup.

The sharp rise in the euro and the dollar index falling dollar reduced the price of gold, resulting in a rapid increase in the cost of metal, tested at the opening Friday's trading a new annual high of $ 1283.33 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes on the price level of $ 1273 per ounce.

The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes - 1277 $, 1280 $ and 1287 $ per ounce.

Immediate support for the gold price has settled at the level of $ 1265 per ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1260, $ 1255, $ 1251 per troy ounce or less.

In our forecast for Friday expect the first lateral dynamics, then the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver under the influence of the same factors duplicated at yesterday's auction the price dynamics of gold.Quotes of the metal once again tested on the rise of the minimum daily level of $ 15.13 an upper boundary of the channel, which forms the silver exchange rate since the beginning of 2015 $ 15.72, then the price reversed on corrective decline.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver passes on the price level of $ 15.72 per ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.94, $ 16 and $ 16.10 per ounce.

Immediate support for silver settled at $ 15.43 a reversal day per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 15.28, $ 15.20 and $ 15.05 per ounce.

In our forecast on silver also assume the end of the current dynamics of the metal side and renewal to reduce the cost of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Friday, considerable attention of investors to attract publication in the UK totals of foreign trade, the total balance of trade, changes in the volume of construction and the poll results in respect of the expected inflation rate for the 1st quarter of this year.  
Of no less interest will also cause the publication in Germany and Spain February consumer price indices; Italy -. changes in the volume of industrial production in January  
New Zealand will present the February index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.  
Japan is to publish an index of business conditions for large manufacturers for the 1st quarter of this year.  
Canada will present the February report on the work, including data the number of employed, the level of unemployment (previous rate - 7.2%) and the proportion of the economically active population.  
and in the United States it will be published February index of export prices and import prices. 
Today will be the speech of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.




Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.


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