Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today November 3
After a sluggish morning trading on Monday, the euro somewhat brightened after the index of activity in the manufacturing sector in China and could not get out of the zone of recession, although at the same time showed a slight increase to 48.3 points. However, the single currency could not fully take advantage of any escape of investors from risky assets or favorable data in the Eurozone.
The final manufacturing PMI in the region has increased in most countries and reached 52.3 points in October against preliminary level of 52.0. However, the "bullish" impulse pair euro / dollar was only enough for it to reach the level of 1.1052, where the quotes currency have repeatedly met with the sale.
Thus, the limited reaction to the euro on positive statistics indicates that the currency is still under the pressure due to the divergence of monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. A recent statement by the European regulator, Mario Draghi of the Bank's readiness to expand fiscal stimulus aggravated the situation.
However, the pair falling Monday was very limited level of psychological support 1.10. Against this backdrop, the euro / dollar pair spent the whole day yesterday in a narrow sideways range, practically without changing its position.
The euro / dollar today: expect the resumption of the current growth rate of the euro to the target levels of 1.1034, 1.1070, 1.11, and possibly up to the price level of 1.1130.
We also continue to monitor the previous local low 1.0896. If the bear on the euro will be able to deploy the pair to test this level and gain a foothold under it, in this case, the depreciation of the euro may continue until the key support level of 1.08, and then to turn on the rise to the above target levels.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today November 3
Yesterday data of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed a sharp rise in the UK the main index to 55.5 points. The index went significantly higher forecast (51.3) and reached a maximum shestnadtsatimesyachnogo. Moreover, the components of the index also impressed: new orders rose to 56.9 points (from 52.9 - in September), while exports peaked more than a year level.
Despite the fact that the UK manufacturing sector's GDP is only 15%, this is another confirmation that the UK economy is one of the strongest among the "Big Ten".
After the publication of these quotes currency formed a new high 1.5496, but yet again failed to overcome the key resistance level of 1.55. Failure to "bull" to push through this level and continue the upward movement again sparked profit-taking correction and couples.
Currency pair GBP / USD on a pullback back to Asian lows and fixed the close of the session on the price level of 1.5420. In this mood of the market against the pound it remains quite favorable.
This week we expect further and reports on business activity in the service sector and the construction sector. If they are the same as positive - it will increase the chances for a speedy transition to the regime of the Bank of England to increase interest rates.
Pound / dollar today expect a resumption of growth of the sterling to target levels 1.5436, 1.5473, 1.55 and 1.5540.
If this last level is broken and the currency will be able to gain a foothold above it, while the rise of the pair will continue to the next target level - 1.5572 and higher.
If the punch is on the rise the level 1.5540 fails, then the pair GBP / USD will retry the rollback in the price zone of 1.54 ÷ 1.5380 and then resume its ascent to above target levels.
Forex. The outlook on the price movement of gold today November 3
Forex. Recommendations for gold and silver today:
On the eve of the price of gold fell by $ 8.31, reaching a new 4-week low at around $ 1132.58 per ounce. This once again demonstrates the further reduction of interest to the metal after the Fed announced the probability of a rate hike in December. This inflated the number of long positions in the market for gold, the volume of which in the past two months has increased three-fold (from 40 th. To 122 thousand. Lots) creates a dangerous situation, increasing the risks of further reducing the cost of the metal.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight turn $ 1137 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to target levels of $ 1142, $ 1148 and $ 1155.
Immediate support for gold is located in the $ 1132 price level. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of 1126 $, 1123 $ and 1117 $ per ounce. Gold is forecast for today assume the completion of reduction of the metal at the current price levels, and then a new rise in the cost of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Forex. The outlook on the price movement of silver today, November 3
Speculative traders in the silver market in September and October have accumulated a net long position in futures in the amount of 45 thousand. Lots. Since 2006, a similar amount was recorded just five times, and every time after that followed a sharp reduction in the cost of metal. And now amid growing likelihood of a December rate hike and the subsequent rise in price of dollar traders began to get rid of the excessive number of transactions for the purchase of metal. In addition, yesterday's statistics did not reveal anything that could stop the fall. As a result, the price of the metal dropped again, recorded a minimum level at around $ 15.25, and finished trading slightly adjusted for price level $ 15.41 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through the 20-day moving average of $ 15.42 an ounce.If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - followed by a continuation of the recovery target levels of $ 15.54, $ 15.60, $ 15.73 and $ 15.80 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of the previous local minimum of $ 15.25 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in the following purposes: $ 15.20, $ 15 and $ 14.85 an ounce.
The forecast for silver also expect renewed growth in the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.
In Tuesday's economic calendar in the focus of the market would be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be maintained at the same level - 2%.
In the US, will be released September data volume production zakazov.Ispaniya will report on the October changes in the number of unemployed.
In Japan, the holiday - the Day of Culture. The regional market is closed, the statistics will not be published.
Today, performances by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan.
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