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Main » 2016 » March » 10 » Forex forecast for today 03/10/2016: EUR / USD - a sharp increase in volatility!
Forex forecast for today 03/10/2016: EUR / USD - a sharp increase in volatility!

Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

After another unsuccessful attempt to test the significant resistance level of 1.1060 euro / dollar at the auction on Wednesday stopped "strain" and before the ECB meeting formed a side range of motion 1.1034 ÷ 1.0946.



An empty economic calendar in Europe and the United States also contributed to the dynamics of the active currencies. Moreover, the uncertainty of final decisions of the European Bank for forced investors not to take risks and to be careful.


The expectations of market participants are quite large, as the European Central Bank measures taken today, as well as comments on Mario Draghi's press conference may make a catalyst of the large-scale movement from the beginning of the current year.

Against this background, the pair exchange rate remained under pressure, but it still managed to complete the formation on the hourly timeframe reversal chart pattern "Inverted Head and Shoulders", involving a medium-term growth of the euro area in the key resistance level of 1.13. The prerequisite for this would be the breakdown of the top "neck" line of the figure - 1.1057 and consolidation currency quotes on it.

euro dollar forecast: assume the completion of this corrective pullback and resumption of growth in the single European currency to the price levels of 1.0997, 1.1034 and 1.1057.

If this level is broken, then followed by a continuation of the recovery in the key levels of 1.11, 1.12 and 1.13.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 03/10/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The yield in the UK in January of positive data changes in industrial production and production in the processing industry, surpassing the previous values, stopped corrective weakness of the British currency pairs and spread rate on the rise.

However, reversal of momentum was quite weak. Besides the constant warnings of the Bank of England head Mark Carney on significant risks to the UK economy in the event of the UK from the EU structure, as well as slower growth in the 1st quarter of this year (0.3% against 0.4% in the previous quarter) increased pressure on national currency. The growth of the pound was stopped at the level of 1.4240. Next to the end of the day the pair  GBP / USD  traded in a narrow price range and finished the session at the level of previous day's close.

Today, the forecast rate pound dollar assume the continuation of the correction of decrease in pair to target levels of 1.4167, 1.4146 and 1.41. At this level, we expect a reversal of the British currency to the upward movement.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date 03/10/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

The cost of futures for gold at the auction on Wednesday resumed its fall against the strengthening of the US currency before the ECB meeting, and for this reason, reducing demand for the precious metal.

And although the price dynamics of gold still looks optimistic and "bull" market still maintains its position, however, the expectations of a dramatic expansion of financial investments in the euro area economy began to fuel the stock market and outflow of investments in risky investments - stocks and commodity assets.

As a result of buying pressure on the gold price movement significantly weakened and the metal began to form a corrective pullback from earlier highs. At the end of yesterday's trading on the New York Stock Exchange, "Somekh" the April gold lost $ 8.23 ​​and fixed the closing of the trading session on the price level of $ 1252.96 per ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes on the price level of $ 1255 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes - 1260 $, 1265 $ and 1268 $ per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at $ 1251 weekly reversal ounce. If it is passed, in which case it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels of $ 1248, $ 1243, $ 1238 per troy ounce or less.

Gold forecast for today initial lateral dynamics, then the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver Course today 10/3/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver under the influence of the same factors in yesterday's trading shaped lateral dynamics, fixing band 15.42 $ ÷ 15.17 $ and ending the session at a price level $ 15.28 per ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of daytime turning $ 15.30 per ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.35, $ ​​15.40 and $ 15.55 per ounce.

Immediate support for the silver is located at the price level of $ 15.25 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 15.17, $ 15 and $ 14.95 per ounce.

Silver today in the forecast assuming completion of the lateral dynamics of the metal and the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news


The economic calendar Thursday in the focus of the market would be the decision of the European Central Bank's main interest rate, the rate on the deposit, as well as the accompanying statement to the decision.Immediately after the announcement of the outcome of the meeting held a press conference of the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.

As always, a significant investor attention in the day will cause the US publication of a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as a monthly report on the execution of the federal budget.

Australia is to publish the March expectations for consumer price inflation.

China publishes indices of consumer prices and producer prices for February.

Japan will present the March data volume of foreign investments in the country and the amount of capital invested abroad.

UK is to publish a report on changes in house prices according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

France will report on changes in the January volume of industrial production and the production of the processing industry, as well as changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the economy.

Germany will submit a final balance of foreign trade indicators, including exports and imports, as well as the current account balance for January.

Italy will release the unemployment rate for the 4th quarter.

In Canada, released in January the price index for housing in the primary real estate market and the capacity utilization rate for the 4th quarter of last year.

On the same day, a statement by the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Graeme Wheeler.

For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!



Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.

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