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Main » 2016 » March » 3 » Forex forecast for today 03/03/2016: EUR / USD does not want to fall! It's time to close the sale!
Forex forecast for today 03/03/2016: EUR / USD does not want to fall! It's time to close the sale!

Forex. Forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 03/03/2016

In anticipation of the US labor market data new pair euro / dollar continued its previous decline and the beginning of the American session at least once recorded at the level of 1.0825.



Published agency ADP data really showed acceleration in US employment growth and positive trend in the labor market, reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates the Federal Reserve in 2016. Over the past month, the level of employment increased by 214,000 vs. 190,000, in addition, the data for January were revised upward to 193,000.


Thus, the lag of the European economy from the US once again becomes apparent, given also the forthcoming next week ECB meeting, at which the European regulator is even more soften its monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi has already spoken on the subject, stating that it is considering all options for changing monetary policy.

However, most of the possible stimulus ECB action is already included in the prices. And the increase in the monthly financial investments, and an additional reduction of deposit rates and the extension of the fiscal stimulus - it's all worked out by the market. Therefore, we do not expect a significant reduction of the euro.otano market. Therefore, we do not expect a significant reduction of the euro.

Our baseline scenario is the gradual completion of the downward dynamics of the pair  EUR / USD  and its reversal in the upward correction.

By the way, the euro yesterday after the release of strong US data on labor stopped and the previous decline has resumed growth, completing trades in the "plus" in the price level of 1.0867.

The euro exchange rate against the dollar today prediction: expect a reversal of the course of the single European currency to rise to the following purposes: 1.09, 1.0930, 1.0970, 1.10 and above, to the significant resistance level of 1.1034.

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Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 03/03/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The British pound again begins to feel the ground under his feet, recovering from the blow dealt to him, the so-called "brekzitom" - possible withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU structure. Panic in the market are beginning to subside, and at yesterday's auction rate pair  pound / dollar  continued to adjust the previous decline in the pair.

And even a weak output in the UK index of business activity in the construction sector (54.2 versus the previous 55.0) - the lowest level since June 2013, failed to stop the upward movement of the pair, and deploy it on the decline.

Trading session on Wednesday Course pair GBP / USD finished at highs, closing fixing at the 1.4078 price level.

The pound against the dollar today, expect a short-term pullback pair from yesterday's rise, and then turn and further growth of the British currency to the target levels of 1.41, 1.4133, 1.4167 and 1.42.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date 03/03/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Gold prices on Wednesday trading resumed growth against the backdrop of a decline in major US stock indices (up to a minimum level of 2014), following the reduction in the volume of shale oil production.

In addition, the gold market has received additional support and contributions from the inflow to the specialized exchange-traded funds. On Tuesday, the new metal deposits totaling 10.8 tons were recorded.

Maintaining a high demand for gold coins. In February, the US Mint has sold coins on the 83.5 th. Ounces, which is 4.5 times more than the year before. Australia also registered a sale of gold coins by 37 thous. Ounces, which is 16% more than in the same period last year.

The growing demand for precious metals has allowed "bulls" to activate the purchase and return the value of gold from its Asian low $ 1225.40 in the zone of maximum levels this week.

As a result, by the end of trading session on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» April futures price of gold reached a level of $ 1243.90 per ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of the previous local maximum of $ 1243.90 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following objectives - $ 1247, $ 1250 and $ 1255 per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at the level of daylight turn $ 1236 per ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1232, $ 1227 and $ 1223 per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today expect to  end the current rise in price zone 1250 $ 1255 $ ÷, and then the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Prediction silver rate today 03/03/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

A series of positive key macroeconomic indicators published in recent days, has restored investor confidence in the prospects for global economic growth and increased demand for commodities, and in particular, on the industrial silver. In addition, an additional incentive to buy metal at yesterday's auction was the inability of the stock market continue to rise, despite the launch in the US is quite strong economic performance.

As a result, the metal resumed its correction and minimum levels of Asian trading $ 14.74 per ounce rushed to the maximum reached on the eve.

Thus, at the end of the day the price of May silver futures rose 26 cents and finished bids on the price level of $ 14.93 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of $ 15 a week turn an ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.10, $ 15.20 and $ 15.25 per ounce.

Immediate support for silver settled at $ 14.90 a reversal day per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 14.85, $ 14.70 and $ 14.40 per ounce.

Silver today forecast assume a new attempt to test the key resistance level of $ 15 per ounce, and then the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Thursday in the focus of the market will be published in Australia, Japan, China, the UK and the US index of business activity in the services sector. 
The same indicators and composite indices, which include the combined figures for both sectors, will be published in the euro area and . in the leading economies in the region - Germany, France, Italy and Spain  
considerable interest of investors will also cause the publication of the US ISM composite index for the non-production sphere and the number of weekly data of initial applications for unemployment benefits; January changes in retail sales in the euro zone and the outcome of the balance of foreign trade in January in Australia. 
Japan will present the February data of foreign investment in the economy and the amount of capital invested abroad.  
UK is to publish the February index of housing prices and the official gold and currency reserves.  
The the United States will be announced volume production orders for January, as well as the quarterly labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector and the level of labor costs.




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