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Main » 2016 » February » 23 » Forex forecast for today 02/23/2016: Political uncertainty weighs on the pound?
11:54
Forex forecast for today 02/23/2016: Political uncertainty weighs on the pound?
 
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 Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/23/2016

Leading euro area economy, Germany and France showed yesterday the decline in business activity in the combined index of the industrial sector and the service sector. index of business activity in industry in Germany fell to 50.2 points against the previous level of 52.3. France, in turn, has not held up to the January data on the services sector, showing a decline to 49.8 points.

 

 

Regional indicators of business activity in the euro area as a whole, also significantly weakened. In industry activity index fell to the level of 51 against the previous 52.3, while the services sector to the 53 January against the value of 53.6 points.

 


In terms of commodity prices and energy prices, as well as the growing interest of investors to the high-risk assets, the negative economic statistics from the eurozone triggered a new sell  euros The course of the euro tested the regular 3-week low at 1.1003 price level.


Additional support sellers euro was strengthening of the dollar across the spectrum of the currency market.Interest in US currency rose after the 12-month rate of inflation in the United States approached the Fed set the target level (2%) is much faster than expected forecasts. In January consumer inflation in the US will demonstrate tree growth from 0.7% to 1.4%, and the market once again talking about the possibility of accelerating the process of improvement of the US Federal Reserve interest rates.


Today, the euro dollar exchange rate in the forecast assumed a reversal of the pair reached 1.1003 yesterday low and the growth rate of the single European currency to target levels 1.1070, 1.11, 1.1129 and possibly to 1.1150.

If the "bears" for the euro will be able to push the pair below yesterday's low, the reduction can last up to the level of 1.0950, which then assume renewed rise to the above target levels.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/23/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The British pound  began a new week plummeting. The reason was the sharp aggravation of confrontation between the leading politicians of the United Kingdom on the issue of the upcoming referendum on the country's withdrawal from the EU structure. According to the results of the European summit at the end of last week, Prime Minister David Cameron failed to reach agreement with the European Union about the special status of the United Kingdom, which was supported by 27 heads of states - members of the EU.


However, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who is a popular figure in the public life of England, announced that he would play for the country's exit from the EU. His opinion can influence the decision of a very large number of Britons. In addition, another 6 government ministers announced that they will also agitate citizens to withdraw from the EU structure.


Negative investor sentiment even more intensified after the international rating agency «Moody's» issued a statement that in case of a positive vote on the UK release of the EU assigns negative outlook for the sovereign credit rating of the country.


The market reacted to the aggressive sales of the pound, the rate of which paired samerikanskim dollar has fallen to a new 7-year low of 1.4056. The risks of further decline also increased against the background of deteriorating technical picture.


Restoration of this pair since January this year and has not gone beyond the correction of the key resistance levels were not breached, but the strong level of support from the 1.4078 lows this year turned out to be lost.


Pound dollar today expect the resumption of decrease in pair to the level of the previous local minimum of 1.4056 and the key support level of 1.40. Further forward rotation and the rise of the British currency to target levels 1.4167, 1.42, 1.4235 and 1.43.

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Forex. Gold price forecast for today 02/23/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

On the first day of the week the price of gold began to weaken again due to increased demand for risky assets and a stronger dollar. Gold futures fell $ 24 an ounce during Monday morning trading session in Europe on a 3-week minimum level of $ 1201.85 per troy ounce.

By the end of the day the information that the world's largest exchange-traded fund in gold «SPDR Gold Trust» Friday showed growth in assets up to 733 tons - the largest one-time inflow per day from August 2011. This information has stopped the sale of gold and unfolded metal quotations on the rise. As a result, the April futures price of gold closed the day's trading on the price level of $ 1207.91 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of $ 1219 weekly reversal ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes - 1227 $, 1232 $ and 1238 $ per ounce.

Immediate support for the gold price has settled at the level of $ 1206. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease of metal price of $ 1200, $ 1191 and $ 1180 per troy ounce.

In our forecast for Tuesday assume the completion of the current recovery and the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver Course today 23/2/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

As we expected, the price of silver finished on Friday the formation of topping graphic figure "Head and Shoulders" and struck so-called "neck line" at yesterday's auction of the figure and began to implement the objectives of its downward movement.

"Bulls" have tried to organize a "false break" and get quotes back. However, the attempt failed, and, once again testing the "neck line" $ 15.19 an ounce, the metal resumed its decline.

Thus, the price of silver speaker, noting the Siberian High $ 15.33 and $ 14.92 Europe at least, completed the trades "honorable draw" a foothold in the middle of the day's range on the price level of $ 15.15 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver passes on the price level of $ 15.25 per ounce. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.38, $ 15.48 and $ 15.60 per ounce.

Immediate support for silver settled at $ 15.14 a reversal day per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 15, $ 14.95, $ 14.70 and $ 14.63 per ounce.

In our forecast on silver also assume the completion of the current expansion and renewal of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support. Break down the previous local minimum of $ 14.92 per ounce confirm further decline in metal.

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Forex. news

 

The economic calendar on Tuesday in the center of investors' attention will be parliamentary hearings in the UK on inflation and the performance of the Bank of England head Mark Carney, as well as the February report of the Institute for Economic Research in Munich, under the terms of the business environment, assessment of the current situation and economic expectations in Germany.

Significant interest is also cause the publication in Germany to change the GDP data, the volume of exports and imports, the volume of domestic demand, as well as the volumes of public expenditure, investment in fixed assets in the construction sector, and changes in the amount of personal consumption expenditure in the 4th quarter of last year .

UK publishes the February index of house prices and mortgage lending in January.

And statistics from the US will be published indicators such as consumer confidence indicator for February;changes in 20 major cities house price index of the country and a nationwide home price index; home sales in the secondary real estate market in January and the manufacturing index of the Richmond Fed.

On the same day, the speech of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan.

For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "Maximarkets.ru" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!

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