Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/22/2016
On Friday, trading the forex currency market the euro / dollar managed to set a new minimum of two weeks after the US came in a surprisingly confident positive data on consumer price index for January. Euro dollar quotations reached the level of 1.1065, but soon the EUR / USD returned to the level of 1.1126 and above.
The main reason for the growth of the European currency began to speculation around the UK exit from the EU.Analysts at JP Morgan believe that if the unlikely event that this does happen, then the euro may rise by 1% -2% on the average exchange rate and the European Central Bank will have to take decisive measures to stabilize the exchange rate. It is important to note that after the Friday at the EU summit agreements that have introduced the special status of the United Kingdom in the European Union, the likelihood of a positive outcome of the referendum, scheduled for June 23 is extremely small.
Thus, at the moment the technical picture, suggesting a further decline in the euro / dollar to 1.0990 support level coincides with the fundamental, reduce the likelihood of a sharp decline in the British pound and the growth of the European currency against this background.
The euro dollar today , in the absence of important macroeconomic news, we assume a decline in the euro / dollar toward support levels 1.1100, 1.1065 and possibly lower, to around 1.1020.
Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/22/2016
The main event on Friday, was the adoption by the UK of the agreement at the EU summit in late at night. Of the five basic requirements of the Prime Minister Cameron a compromise was reached on four points, with the exception of the British veto on decisions of the European Union. Achieved victory allowed Cameron said at a press conference, he defended the future of pounds and can now recommend to the residents of the UK to vote on whether to remain in the European Union. On Saturday, Cameron announced the referendum date - 23 June this year, and said that the decision was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers to recommend to vote for Britain to leave the Eurozone.
Cameron is still a lot of enemies, besides the six members of the Cabinet of Ministers continues to agitate voters for access to the UK from the EU. However, the objective reality speaks in favor of the fact that the achievement of an agreement on the provision of Cameron UK special status in the European Union, will ensure in the forthcoming referendum voting quantitative advantage for the preservation of places in the EU, which will eventually lead to the strengthening of the British currency.
The pound against the dollar in the forecast for today, expect the pair GBP / USD to 1.4300 marks, 1.4325 and 1.4375 against the background of progress made at the EU summit agreements.
Forex. Price forecast for gold and silver today 02/22/2016
On Friday, gold fell slightly in price after a significant increase in the previous day. Experts note a decrease in demand from major buyers China and India. At the same time, medium-term trend for gold still remains upward, against the backdrop of enhanced view that the Fed will not raise interest rates in March due to increased worries about the stability of world markets and low growth forecasts for the US economy.
The nearest resistance level for gold is at $ 1233 per ounce. In case of breaking this resistance, the metal has good prospects for further growth to the level of $ 1240, $ 1245 and $ 1254. Short-term support for gold is located at $ 1220. The decline below this level will allow the gold to test the support of $ 1215, $ 1205 and $ 1192 per troy ounce.
Silver for the last week has demonstrated a very low volatility, without going beyond the narrow range of $ 15.15 - $ 15.55. The main resistance level for silver is held at around $ 15.45. If the metal is able to overcome this resistance, we will see a further increase in the level of $ 15.55, $ 15.65 and $ 15.80. The next short-term support for silver is at $ 15.15. Break of this support will open the way for the metal to a high of $ 15.00, $ 14.80 and $ 14.60 per ounce.
The economic calendar Monday - can be distinguished publication of the index of business activity in Germany, France and the euro area as a whole. Switzerland will present the Producer Price Index and imports in January this year.
UK is to publish a report on changes in the volume of industrial orders.
And finally, in the US macroeconomic statistics will be presented to the business activity index in the manufacturing sector and the National Activity Index Chicago Fed.
For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "Maximarkets.ru" under "Research".
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