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Main » 2016 » February » 19 » Forex forecast for today 02/19/2016: Will the US Federal Reserve will dare to lift the interest rate?
Forex forecast for today 02/19/2016: Will the US Federal Reserve will dare to lift the interest rate?

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/19/2016

In the foreign exchange market yesterday greenbacks began to strengthen again to the main competitors. Against this backdrop, the euro / dollar broke through on the reduction of a significant level of support for 1.11 and tested the 3-week low - 1.1071.



Driver quotes decline of the euro against the dollar was the publication of another strong macroeconomic statistics from the US. According to information received, the number of applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to 269 thousand -.. Up to 262 thousand, which was yet another sign of labor market stabilization.(Note, incidentally, that the level of employment is one of the main indicators, which is guided by the US Federal Reserve in deciding the rate).


Moreover, the day before, a very positive flow of economic statistics was also published in the United States.The volume of industrial production for the first four months was "plus". Capacity utilization also increased to 77%. Increase in the number of permits obtained for new construction. Such positive forced investors to remember that despite the cautious rhetoric, the Fed does not disclaims any tightening of monetary policy this year. And if the US economy will continue to generate strong macroeconomic indicators, the Fed may well resume scheduled for the December meeting, the process of raising interest rates. In these circumstances, market sentiment towards the US dollar improved slightly, but the uncertainty of the situation continues to exert pressure on the dynamics of the currency pair.

Today, the euro-dollar exchange rate in the forecast we assume - the completion of the current rise near the 1.1140 price level, and then turn the course of the single European currency to decline to target levels: 1.1110; 1.1070; 1.1034 and possibly to 1.10. *** If the pair will manage to push sellers not the euro below 1.1070, the quote currency unfold in the upward movement in the direction of the key resistance levels of 1.11 and 1.12.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/19/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Currency trading on Thursday were characterized by a fairly sluggish and multidirectional trade. Investors' attention is mainly focused on extending the negotiations in Brussels over the UK's membership of the EU. The increase chances that the country will remain in the Union, held  lb \ dollar  from falling. Course pair traded in a narrow sideways range, since an empty economic calendar left the "bull" by the pound without drivers for the movement. Activate price dynamics pairs in yesterday's trading was able to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who in the course of yesterday's EU summit, said he was confident in the positive conclusion of the agreement between the parties. The course of couples on this background sharply went up, fixing on the rise the maximum daily level of 1.4393. Further, during the American session, the rise has been slightly adapted and day trading ended on the price level of 1.4327.

Today, the pound against the dollar in the forecast we assume - the resumption of the pair to reduce price levels: 1.43; , 1.4255; 1.4235 and 1.42. Near the last target level, we expect a reversal of the British currency to rise towards the key resistance level of 1.44.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/19/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Swiss Federal Customs Administration has extended the information on the market is that in January, the country exported a total almost 148 tons of gold. Of this amount, 41.7 tons were exported to India - a little less than in November, but is three times more than a year ago. Exports to China and Hong Kong fell by nearly half on a monthly basis, but rose slightly compared with the previous year. Sluggish dynamics of the January gold imports into China has become a big surprise to investors, given the celebration in early February, Chinese New Year (Chinese at this time traditionally give each other a large amount of gold). Thus, the further growth of gold is not obvious this year. Fundamental demand from China and India remains weak and the Fed's policy on raising rates, though very cautious, is likely to continue, which again will cause the strengthening of the dollar and fall in the value of precious metals. On this basis, we can assume that in the medium term, investments in gold can be a risky investment.

As for the short term, the view that the Fed will not raise interest rates at the March meeting, due to concerns about the stability of growth in world markets and fears of low inflation has strengthened the "bull! sentiment on gold. Against this background, the cost of the April futures for gold at the end of yesterday rose $ 24 an ounce, to a level of $ 1230.92 per troy ounce, and in the day the price reached the level of $ 1239.66 per ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the previous local maximum - $ 1239.66 per ounce.The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes -1 247 $; $ 1250 and $ 1255 per ounce. Near term support for gold settled at a price level - $ 1226. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - 1221 $; $ 1214 and $ 1206 per troy ounce.

Today gold rate in the forecast we assume - a reversal of the course and the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver Course today 19/2/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

From the technical picture silver last week reached the next local maximum, testing the resistance line at $ 15.94, extending to the upper boundary of the descending 3-month channel. This is also confirmed by the formation on the 4-hour timeframe (not yet completed) reversal graphic figure "Head and Shoulders". At yesterday's auction metal quotations have continued to shape the structure, completing the formation at a price level $ 15.54 - "line of the shoulders" of this model. Now, in accordance with the Law of Elliott Wave, we expect a reversal in the decline in value of the metal.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through the price level - $ 15.60 per ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by a continuation of the rise to the target level - $ 15.78, $ 15.93 and $ 16 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 15.37 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 15.25; $ 15.17; $ 15.04 and $ 14.95 per ounce.

Silver forecast for today, we assume - the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support. Break down the "neckline" (Level -15.16 $ per ounce) to confirm further decline in metal.

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Forex. news

In Friday's economic calendar in the focus of the market will be the US data on consumer price indices for January; core consumer price index and changes in the average weekly earnings for January. Other very important indicators will be the data from the UK on changes in retail trade and a net volume of borrowings to finance the public sector, as well as data from Canada on the dynamics of retail sales and consumer price index for January. considerable interest will cause the outcomes of meetings of the European Council on relations with the United Kingdom; February consumer confidence index and the address by the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. In other news - Japan is to publish the December index of business activity in all sectors of the economy. Germany will present the index of producer prices, and the UK will publish the December index of leading economic indicators.





Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.



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