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Main » 2016 » February » 18 » Forex forecast for today 02/18/2016: Minutes of the Fed "dollar exchange rate and oil prices no longer prevent the growth of inflation!"
Forex forecast for today 02/18/2016: Minutes of the Fed "dollar exchange rate and oil prices no longer prevent the growth of inflation!"

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/18/2016

In anticipation of the publication of Protocol of the January meeting of the Fed euro at yesterday's auction was still under pressure. The course of couples throughout the day trading in a narrow range downward and all attempts to "bull" to stop the "drift" of currency to new lows were unsuccessful.



The driver of this trend was the rise in oil prices, restored to the market interest in risky assets and has left the euro outside the field of view of investors. Additional support for the reduction of the pair provided conflicting expectations of the Protocol. Although the recent speech by Janet Yellen, the markets and did not expect significant changes in the Fed's rhetoric, but in general, US economic figures look pretty well and justify further interest rate increase. The labor market is in excellent shape, inflation shows itself a little bit worse, but in general also does not transmit alarm signals. This was confirmed by yesterday's inflation data at the production level, according to which the prices of US producers in January jumped unexpectedly to 0.4% (from + 0.1% previously). However, in the Protocol most of the members of the Committee noted the deteriorated financial conditions, the negative impact on the US economy from China and the developing countries, and expressed concern about the further developments. As a result, the negative market sentiment towards the US currency has not changed, the dollar remained under pressure, and a pair of course - sideways.


The euro dollar today assume - a reversal of the course of the single European currency to rise to the target levels: 1.1160; 1.1193 1.1216 and possibly to 1.1237. *** If the pair will manage to push sellers euro below the local minimum 1.1105, and consolidate below it, followed by a continued decline in the price zone of 1.1070 ÷ 1.1034.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/18/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

British currency did not manage to show more or less confident upward correction. Yesterday's European session  pound \ dollar  could strengthen somewhat, thanks to the results of another survey conducted by the British TV. It is known that at the moment most of the population tends to preserve the UK's membership of the EU. That calmed investors and helped to deploy a pair of course from its Asian decline. Another positive factor was the publication in the UK is quite strong on labor and employment data, according to which the unemployment rate remained at a low level - 5.1%; the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell na14.8 ths., and the average salary increased by 1.9%. The course of couples tested against this background that the maximum price to the level of 1.4338. However, it was not possible to keep the upward momentum.Published on the eve of extremely negative data on consumer price inflation, which showed conversion rates in a zone of "deflation", strengthened the resistance of the "bears" and the couple returned to its minimum level of 1.4234. Follow the speaker kept the British pound in this range, and finished trading at a price level 1.4278.

Today, the pound against the dollar in the forecast we assume - the completion of reduction close to the current price levels, and then turn the British currency to rise to the target levels: 1.4333; 1.4360; 1.4382;1.4410 and possibly to 1.4470.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/18/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Market sentiment improved precious metal, as the members of the Federal Reserve reinforced the view that we should not rush to increase interest rates in view of the increasing uncertainty of the US economy prospects.Dollar continues to weaken this background, supporting the demand for precious metals. At the same time voiced earlier in the week, the statement by ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank may take additional measures in March to stimulate the Eurozone economy, calmed investors and boosted appetite for riskier assets such as the European and US stocks. At the same time, demand for gold has fallen somewhat in connection with the transfer of the investment to purchase higher-yielding assets in the stock market. In these conflicting conditions of gold stopped falling and the metal began to be adjusted, demonstrating volatile lateral dynamics. As a result, at the end of the trading session on 17 February, the gold price of the March futures rose slightly, adding to the previous day's closing level - $ 4.52 and completing the trade on the price level of $ 1206.92 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1211 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes - $ 1215; $ 1221 and $ 1226 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 1207. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1201; $ 1194 and $ 1191 per troy ounce.

Rate of gold today in the forecast we assume - a continuation of a downward correction of the metal and decrease the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver Course today 18/2/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver second day forms a narrow price range, once again doubling the price dynamics of the gold market."Bulls" was able to stop its decline metal at a price level 15.12 $ per ounce, but the quotations have formed an incomplete figure reversal "head and shoulders", the implementation of which will send the cost of metal to test new lows in the area of ​​price levels 14.60 $ ÷ 14.80 $ cents per ounce . At yesterday's auction trading volatility declined even more, by limiting the movement of price levels 15.37 $ ÷ 15.15 $ per ounce. As a result, the cost of the March futures on silver almost unchanged at $ 15.27 at the close of an ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of the daily rotation - $ 15.40 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by a continuation of the rise to the target level - $ 15.50; $ 15.60 and $ 15.80 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 15.28 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 15.20; $ 15 and $ 14.95 per ounce.

Silver today in the forecast we assume - the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news


The economic calendar Thursday - the focus of the market will address the US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Janet Yellen and the next meeting of finance ministers of member countries of the European Union.

Other very important indicators will be - the January consumer price index and producer prices - in China;January's report on the labor market in Australia, including: the level of unemployment in the country (the previous figure - 5.8%); changes in the number of employees and the proportion of the economically active population, as well as weekly data from the US in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February.

Attract considerable interest of the European Council meeting; address by the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi and the ECB a report on the results of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy.

In other news - Japan is to publish the total and adjusted (adjusted for seasonal factors) balance of foreign trade, including export and import volumes, and the February data on the volume of foreign investments in the country's economy and the volume of capital invested abroad. New Zealand will present the indexes of procurement and ex-works prices for the 4th quarter of last year; The consumer confidence indicator for February and the January index of the number of vacancies for employment. Switzerland will publish the final trade balance figures for January, including export and import volumes of goods. In addition, to be published quarterly data on the number of employees in the labor market. In Canada, the December data will be released to change the volume of wholesale trade, and US statistics - the January index of leading indicators and data on stocks of gasoline, crude oil and distillate - from the US Department of Energy.


For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!





Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.

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