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Main » 2016 » February » 16 » Forex forecast for today 02/16/2016: Euro Buyers start to panic! Pound keeps a stiff upper lip!
Forex forecast for today 02/16/2016: Euro Buyers start to panic! Pound keeps a stiff upper lip!



Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/16/2016



Yesterday in currency trading the euro continued its decline against the backdrop of the growing interest of investors in transactions in the stock market and further sales of "defensive" assets - gold, silver, the yen, the franc and the euro.




Reducing the euro quotations against the dollar accelerated after the start of ECB President Mario Draghi in Brussels before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic Affairs Draghi confirmed the effectiveness of incentives used by the European Bank, but sharply disappointed the market by stating that the ECB will start to accept as collateral for non-performing debts of Italian banks (the Italian Treasury, by the way, has confirmed this information). Euro buckled his words that the ECB treatment of all bad debts in the Eurozone will be the same, therefore, this practice will be extended to troubled assets of all countries within the Eurozone.The euro / dollar is against this background continued to fall, despite the fact that the region's trade balance for December showed excellent results (3% growth rates). Currency Quotes from 1.1250 Asian high down more than 120 points, recording a daily low at 1.1127 price level, which is close to  EUR \ USD  and closed the trading session.


Today, the euro-dollar exchange rate in the forecast we assume - a corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.1180 ÷ 1.1237, and then turn the course of the single European currency and the continued decline to the target levels: 1.1127; 1.11; 1.1070 and possibly to 1.1034.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/16/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

On the eve of the forex customers Briton continued to hold the pound dollar exchange rate from falling, despite the strengthening of the US currency across the board. Sellers Sterling managed to expand  the GBP / USD  to decline and by the Asian maximum test 1.4534 daily low at around 1.4411. But the upward trend in the British currency movement survived, and the rollback has not reached the area the previous lows. An empty economic calendar last week, today, at last, change, and will give players the opportunity to see more impressive movement. On Tuesday, the UK will be published reports on consumer and manufacturing inflation, which definitely cause a reaction of the market and increased volatility of the price movement of the pair.

Today, the pound against the dollar in the forecast we assume - a short-term reduction of the original pair, and then turn the British currency to rise to the target levels: 1.4458; 1.4473; 1.45; 1.4537 and 1.4563. ***** The alternative scenario can occur if the "bears" for the pound will be able to push the pair below 1.4416, and consolidate below it. In this case, followed by a further decline of the pair to the price levels of 1.44 and 1.43.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/16/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

The growth of the stock markets at the beginning of the week increased the interest of investors in transactions with risky assets. Players began to record profits and close the deal on the purchase of metal, translating investments in the stock markets. As a result, the maximum level of last week, $ 1262.96 an ounce March futures price of gold dropped to $ 1202 level. metal correction after 4-week rally was expected, but it is worth noting that on the background of the downturn in the world's largest economies, the US and China are great risks that attempts corrective decline in the price of gold will be used by players as an excuse to open a position to buy.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of the daily rotation - $ 1215 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes - 1221 $; $ 1226 and $ 1232 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located in the previous local minimum - 1202 $. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - 1191 $; $ 1180 and $ 1176 per troy ounce.

Rate of gold forecast for today: assume - the continuation of a downward correction of the metal and decrease the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support. Near the significant support level of $ 1186 is possible rollback of quotations in the price zone 1210 $ ÷ 1,215 $ c, followed by resumption of the metal reduction.

Forex. Forecast Silver today 02.16.2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

The correlation of price movements of gold and silver is fully manifested itself in yesterday's trading, in which the cost of the March futures on silver duplicate the movement of prices on the gold market. Under the influence of similar factors, and increased interest in operations with high-yield risky assets, silver continued to adjust the previous rise, prices during yesterday's trading session, fell by 50 cents per ounce and almost all day long stay in a very narrow range, testing achieved a minimum - 15.19 $ per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of the daily rotation - $ 15.40 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by a continuation of the rise to the target level - $ 15.50; $ 15.60 and $ 15.80 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at a price level - $ 15.20 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 15.10; $ 15 and $ 14.70 per ounce.

Silver forecast for today, we assume - the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support. Near the significant support level of $ 15.10 per ounce is possible rollback of quotations in the price zone 15.25 $ ÷ 15.40 $ c, followed by the resumption of decline.

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Forex. news


The economic calendar on Tuesday in the center of market attention will be the February report of the European Center for Economic Research - ZEW Institute index of sentiment in the business environment and the current situation in Germany, and the corresponding figures for the euro area.

Considerable interest will also published in the UK in January index of consumer and retail prices, purchasing and selling prices of producers, as well as the December index of housing prices; Attention will attract investors as the German Constitutional Court ruling on the legitimacy of the ECB used unconventional monetary policy tools and the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes of the meeting on monetary policy.

Among other indicators - New Zealand will publish the change of volume of retail trade in the 4th quarter of last year, as well as the expected inflation in 2 years. Italy will present a summary of the balance of foreign trade in December. Canada is to publish the January changes in the volume of housing sales in the secondary real estate market and the December data on the volume of production supplies. And statistics from the US manufacturing index will be released «Empire Manufacturing» February.


For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!


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