Forex. Forecast of the euro against the US dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/12/2015
On the eve of the forex pair EUR / USD was trading customers with a clear advantage of the single currency. Using the level of 1.0560 traders in trading in Asia to buy the euro and, as experience has shown, it has paid off. By the opening of trading in Europe, the rate of the euro currency has increased to a value of 1.0590, where the European market participants began to aggressively buy that for a short time enabled the euro / dollar rose to a value of 1.0615.
Although, to consolidate the euro / dollar failed, and in the next few hours the price returned to the level of the start of trading in Europe. The trigger for the resumption of growth was the output to change in a positive direction of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany and information about lower unemployment in the main economy of the euro area. These two fundamental factors provided the pair rise to the resistance level 1.0635. Published in early trading on the west of the Atlantic a number of indices that characterize the US economy due to no impact on investor sentiment towards the US dollar, allowing the euro to gain a foothold quotations above $ 1.0600, not entrenched in the framework of horizontal corridor.
Today, the euro / dollar in the forecast for December 2: assume a relatively weak performance in early trading in Europe. A player trigger to enter the market will be the Consumer Price Index of the European Union, which will be released at 13:00 Moscow time. Positive market value of the index is regarded as an opportunity to continue buying the euro, which would overcome the resistance level of 1.0635 and a further increase to a maximum of the previous week at around 1.0685. Achieving this level over time may coincide with the release of preliminary data on nonfarm payrolls United States, which, according to analysts, is expected to be relatively high. Data exceeding the forecast will cause a resumption of demand for the dollar, which will cause the correction of the euro and return to the values of 1.0635 and 1.0590. If the level of employment in the United States do not live up to expectations, then we are waiting for to overcome the resistance level of 1.0685 and the growth rate of the currency pair euro / dollar to a peak value of the second half of November 1.0760.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/12/2015
The course of sterling to the greenback in yesterday's auction did not show the unique dynamics. Trading in the Asian session, and the beginning of European quotations allowed the pound / dollar rise to the resistance level at around 1.5120. The growth of quotations supported the intervention of the Bank of England, in which the official expressed satisfaction with the post-crisis reform of the banking system to increase security, and said he was ready to ease the pressure on banks Albion and reduce the requirements to the volume of capital.However, the time to achieve the value 1.5120 coincided with the publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the UK, which came out lower than the previous value, and analysts' forecasts. That dramatically changed the attitude of market players to the immediate prospects for the currency of the United Kingdom and, consequently, a reversal of the course and descend to the level of the opening session of 1.5050.Trades in the United States showed no certainty views among local investors about the future of the economy of England and Unt, and the dynamics of the British confined to a relatively narrow corridor 1.5050 - 1.5080.
Pound / dollar today in the forecast: Trades today December 2 promises to be influenced by the volatility of technical and fundamental factors. On the daily chart the pair is beginning to emerge from the oversold zone, which together with signs of a reversal of the inclined level of support gives a strong buy signal. On the fundamental side, the market is expected to publish an index of business activity in the UK construction sector at 12:30 Moscow time. In the event that the Index value exceeds the forecast, it will be the trigger that will trigger investors to open long positions on the British currency, which will likely result in the pound against the US dollar to a mark of 1.5175 after breaking the resistance level of 1.5125.
Further developments, determined news from across the ocean and, above all, data on US employment from the Research Institute of ADP. This publication is likely to trigger a correction, the intensity of which will directly depend on the published values.
In that case, if the macroeconomic data of the British economy fell short of expectations, or the data of the American economy greatly surpass them, likely will be the resumption of the downtrend and the achievement levels of support located at 1.5050 and 1.5000 marks.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold and silver as of today 02/12/2015
On the eve of the value of an ounce of gold showed a strong but mixed trends. Opened a sharp rise at the start of trading in Asia ounce increased by $ 10 for two hours, up to $ 1074. After that, the price consolidated at a value of $ 1071 and the start of trade in Europe, began to gradually decline. Since traditional events in Europe is not strongly affect the price of gold, throughout European trading volatility was low. Market opening in the US has changed the situation. Reached a value of $ 1069 was the starting point for the discovery of short positions to buy the precious metal. However, reaching a value of $ 1072, which triggered the signals take profit, the price reversed, prompting sellers to market entry and return to the point of opening of the trading day - $ 1064 per ounce. With the achieved level of market participants resumed their purchases of the precious metal, but without the former enthusiasm.
Today, gold forecast relatively low volatility during the European trading session in anticipation of the high dynamics of the auction in the United States. Impetus for the market entry of a large number of participants and opening of the investors of large transactions will be a number of events.
First, the speech of two members of the Federal Open Market Committee and the head of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen.
Secondly, mentioned previously published data on employment in the United States. These events can trigger the growth of demand for the dollar, which certainly will lead to the resumption of medium-term downward trend the value of gold. In this case the targets would reduce the levels of support for $ 1064, $ 1060 and $ 1054.
If no official speeches nor macroeconomic data will not have sufficient support for the world's main currencies, we see growth in the value of gold to the resistance levels $ 1074, $ 1080 and $ 1088 per troy ounce.
Silver, repeating the dynamics of the gold price during the trading session on Tuesday. First, a sharp rise in the Asian trading from $ 14.03 to $ 14.19, then a correction and consolidation at a mark of $ 14.15 during trading in Europe and a reduction in local-level support $ 14.05 with the start of trading on the west of the Atlantic. There are enough reasons to believe that in the near future the cost of an ounce of silver will continue to be under short horizontal trend, the limited level of support below $ 13.90 and the $ 14.40 resistance level above.Publication of various fundamental data, particularly against the US dollar, will direct the course from one end of the range to the other. For example, the positive statistics and hawkish tone of statements by representatives of the foreign exchange regulator USA 2 December could provoke testing cost the lower limit of the corridor, from which very likely reversal, as buyers of silver has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to actively enter the market during the descent prices below $ 14 dollars oz.
Bidding will begin on Thursday with the publication of the trade balance in New Zealand. Then the Australian Bureau of Statistics will report on private new investments, which are the main indicator of business conditions and could have a significant impact on the Australian dollar. In Europe, will be published by the gross domestic product of Spain and the volume of industrial orders in Switzerland. Toward the end of trading in the Old World, at 15:00 Moscow time, by GfK will publish the index of consumer climate in Germany. In Canada, the statistics will be published corporate earnings, while in the United States will be celebrating Thanksgiving.
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