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Main » 2016 » February » 11 » Forex forecast for today 02/11/2016: greenbacks falls after allegations Yellen
Forex forecast for today 02/11/2016: greenbacks falls after allegations Yellen

 Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/11/2016

In yesterday's trading the forex EUR / USD corrected after the last rally of the currency market, in which quote currency for the first time since the end of October last year, managed to go beyond the key level of 1.13. However, to complete the sample and could not be fixed above this level.



Hard resistance sellers forced to withdraw from the euro reached positions and re-test the minimum level of the previous day's 1.1160. Nevertheless, the local weakening of the single currency has been limited, and the dollar still looked pretty unstable, which was due to the recent worsening of the economic picture in the US. Against this background, attitude towards the euro remained positive. In addition, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in his speech yesterday announced the availability risks in the US economy. In her view, these risks may cause slowing plans a gradual increase in short-term interest rates. At the same financial conditions are less supportive economic growth, inflation expectations of market participants continue to decline, and economic shocks in China adversely affect the US economy, the Fed chief said.


Yellen's statements weaken the dollar and trigger a new increase in the single European currency, the rate of which by the end of trading returned to the level of the opening day, ending the American session at 1.1289 price level.

Forecast the dollar to euro exchange rate today: expect a reversal of quotes euro against the dollar and the resumption of the corrective decline of the euro to the following target levels: 1.1265, 1.1246, 1.1216, 1.12, 1.1160, and below, to the significant support level of 1.1110.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/11/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

index of business activity in the industrial sector of the UK in December showed the lowest growth rate for 3 months. Growth of new orders showed the slowest pace in five months, and the total trade deficit in Q4 was the highest since the beginning of 2015.

However, the slowdown in the UK economy seems already included in the price, as the pound during this time fell more than 1,000 points. Yesterday's deteriorating economic data in industrial production and production in the processing industry also had little impact on the British currency.

Despite the reduction in annual volumes, respectively, 0.4% and 1.7% it did not cause strong movements pounds  and has provoked decrease in pair. On the contrary, the British currency has appreciated even more, rising by 62 points and the pair of fixing the closing at a price level 1.4520.

Thus, apparently, the price is determined by the dynamics of the pair is now technical factors and the reluctance of investors to take risks, while continuing to sell in strong oversold currency.

Pound Dollar Forecast for today: assuming the completion of the rise and spread of the British currency to decline to target levels 1.4512, 1.45, 1.4460, 1.4446, and below, to the key support level of 1.44.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/11/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Precious metals have suspended its growth, ongoing since the beginning of 2016. During this period, gold has returned completely all incurred losses of the past six months and the last two days of trading in a narrow range at the maximum reached in Monday - the $ 1200 per ounce.

Due to the volatility of stock markets is increasing demand for the metal, causing the growth of quotations and appreciation of gold. Stocks of the largest specialized exchange-traded fund in the world in gold «SPDR Gold Trust» has reached 22.5 million. Oz. This is the highest level since July last year.

China also continues to buy gold stocks zoloto.V January, China rose by 16 tonnes and amounted to 1178 tons.

At this very positive background of yesterday's volatile dynamics of the metal in a narrow sideways range reflects the uncertainty of market expectations of the upcoming performances of the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Fears that in his speech, it will beep the prospect of further rate hikes, caused metal corrective pullback from earlier highs. On the reduction of the rate of gold tested daily low at around $ 1181.55 per ounce.

However, the soft tone of the statement Yellen and Fed underlined concerns about rate hikes this year, optimism returned to the players and intensified metal buying again.

Quotes of gold went up, and the closure of the trading session is completely restored all the daily losses, fixing the closing price on the previous day's high of $ 1198.44 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes on the price level of $ 1200 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following objectives - $ 1207 and $ 1212 per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at $ 1190 daily reversal. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1180, $ 1176 and $ 1170 per troy ounce.

Gold Forecast for today: assuming the completion of the current metal recovery and a reversal in the decline in the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver Course today 11/2/2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

The cost of the March futures on silver duplicate in yesterday's trading, the price dynamics of gold. Following the mood of the players, metal tested on reducing the daily low at around $ 15.07 per ounce. However, later in the course of the "bulls" of trading the US session regained losses and closed the day in the little "plus" at the level of $ 15.23 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver passes on the price level of $ 15.60 per ounce.

If it resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.70, $ 15.80 and $ 16 per ounce.

Immediate support for the silver is located at the price level of $ 15.25 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 15.20, $ 15.05 and $ 14.90 per ounce.

Silver Forecast for today: assuming the completion of the current rise in the metal reached the maximum.Further forward rotation and reduce the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Thursday in the focus of the market will address the US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Janet Yellen. As well as the regular meeting of member countries of the EU finance ministers. 
As always, a significant attention of the market will cause a weekly US data the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.  
Australia is to publish the February expectations for consumer price inflation.  
New Zealand will present the January index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. 
UK publishes a report on changes in house prices according to the Royal institution of Chartered Surveyors. 
In Switzerland, will be published consumer price indices.  
Canada will report on changes in the price index in the primary real estate market in December. 
China remained closed for trading. "Spring Day" continues.  
In Japan as a holiday - "National Foundation Day". Markets are closed, the statistics will not be published.



Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.


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