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Forex forecast for today 02.10.2015: Nonfarm Payrolls - expect a sharp increase in the price action!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/10/2015
In the currency market on Thursday, the euro continued to fall against the dollar after the release of negative preliminary inflation data on Wednesday.The threat of deflation in Europe added the rumors about the likelihood of extending and expanding the programs of financial support to the ECB that the euro currency is a negative factor and lead to cheaper euro.
However, the depreciation of the European currency to the American did not last long. After the release of weak statistics from the United States (increase in the number of unemployed and the decline in business activity in the manufacturing sector) general decline greenbacks around the market price has changed the dynamics of the euro dollar exchange rate which turned to an increase of the minimum daily level of 1.1137. On lifting the quotes of Euro-currency touched 1.1209 high, and further, until the end of trading in the US have formed a very narrow range of sideways trading near this level. Today's output Nonfarm Payrolls maintains the uncertainty in the market. Strong data report will give a clear idea about the state of the US economy and can increase the chances that the decision to raise the interest rate the Fed can be taken in the month of October.
The euro dollar today: assume - initial depreciation of the euro against the greenback to the target levels - 1.1177 and 1.1140. It is expected to spread. Though, if this level is broken, the depreciation of the dollar to the euro in the following price levels: 1.1130; 1.11 and possibly to 1.1070. Target levels of growth in the euro after its reversal: 1.1188; 1.12; 1.1216; 1.1235 and 1.1260.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/10/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Released yesterday, the UK index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell in September to a 3-month low (51.5), confirming thus the weakness of the productive sector of Albion, which arose due to a sharp decline in consumer spending, business investment and the stagnation of exports. In this regard, the Bank of England was another reason to postpone the first rate hike until the industry has not come back on a firmer footing. This contrasts with the intention of the Fed to raise rates later this year, and has a significant pressure on the sterling. However, it should be noted that, despite the strengthening of the "bearish" pressure, the dollar exchange rate pound a week does not go from a narrow price range. On the eve of Forex GBP / USD also held sideways. It is likely that the sterling has formed a decline and is now at the initial stage of corrective reversal.
Pound Dollar today: expect - the completion of the current depreciation of the pound dollar price zone 1.5125 ÷ 1.5075, and then - turn and rise in quotations of sterling to target levels: 1.5188; 1.52; 1.5240; 1.5268 or higher, in the direction of the key resistance level of 1.53.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 02/10/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today:
In the course of gold continued to pressure the Fed rate hike inevitable. In Thursday trading in Asia, the metal again tested the 2-week low of $ 1,111 an ounce on the background of upside greenbacks, growing market share and the drop in inflation in the euro area (as we know, gold is in demand as a protective asset against rising inflation). However, buyers of gold found the strength to change the dynamics of trading after reports on new purchases of gold Bank of Russia and China. Russia said that added to their reserves still about 31 tons of gold, and China in July increased gold reserves to 19.3 tons. In addition to Russia and China, still about 47 tons of gold was purchased for the last month by various investors. The findings provoked gold buyers to resume purchases of the metal, which in the course of trading in Europe reached a level of $ 1119.12 an ounce.However, to continue to rise, or at least, refrain from highs still failed. In anticipation of the publication of the main report on employment in the US (Friday, 02/10/2015) players started to fix the profit and close the deal to buy the metal. Quotes of gold fell again and at the end of the day tested daily lows, ending trading at $ 1113.53 price level per troy ounce (- $ 1.25).
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight reversal - $ 1114.40 per ounce.The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise in the following metal price levels - $ 1119; $ 1123; $ 1127 and $ 1132 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the previous local minimum - $ 1111. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1102 and $ 1099 per ounce.
The cost of silver in yesterday's trading influenced by the same factors showed similar dynamics, and testing the lateral border trade on the price levels of $ 14.70 and $ 14.46, completed the day's trading at around $ 14.53 per ounce (+2 per cent).
As of this morning near term resistance for silver is located at the level of daylight reversal - $ 14.56. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, the metal may rise to the following objectives - $ 14.64; $ 14.71 and $ 15 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver held by the level of the previous local minimum - $ 14.46 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the price levels - $ 14.36;$ 14.27 and $ 14 an ounce.
Course of silver today in the forecast forward - completion of reduction of the metal close to the current price levels, and then - the resumption of growth in the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.
On the economic calendar, Friday the focus of the market will be the main report on non-farm employment in the public sector of the US economy and the unemployment rate in the country.
In addition, the cause of considerable interest - the publication of the UK business activity index for the construction sector and data on changes in the volume of retail trade -in Australia.
Among other economic news - Japan is to publish July CPI; the unemployment rate (the previous figure - 3.3%); the share of the economically active population, as well as the dynamics of the level of household spending.
In the euro zone producer price index will be released in August, and US statistics are presented - changes in the number of people employed in the manufacturing and the private sector; the proportion of the economically active population; changes in the average hourly earnings and average weekly working hours, as well as the overall review of employment within two months and the dynamics of the volume of industrial orders for August. In addition, this day will be the speech Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.
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