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Main » 2016 » February » 4 » Forex forecast for today 02/04/2016: The market changes related to sterling! How long?
Forex forecast for today 02/04/2016: The market changes related to sterling! How long?

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/04/2016

Retail sales in the euro zone rose in December, but it turned out to be weaker than expected (0.3% vs. 0.4% - according to the forecast). The growth rate was recorded for the first time since last August. This supported the euro in forex trading in Europe and Asia, but has not been able to stimulate the growth of the pair.



Breakthrough sideways occurred only at the beginning of trading in the US after the speech a senior Fed, William Dudley, who said that financial conditions in the United States have deteriorated significantly since last December, and the weakening of the world economy and rising  dollar  can be a very powerful argument for the Fed terms of further increases in interest rates. The market reacted to the statement by Dudley aggressive selling of the American currency and a sharp rise in the euro, which is even more intensified after the release of weak data on business activity in the US service sector. The January index of activity is reduced to a 2-year low of 53.5 points against the previous level - 55.8. At the same time the employment index in the sector also declined against the December index, which can lead to weak output data of the main report on employment in the US, where the market expects this Friday. As a result, by the end of the day, passing on the rise more than 240 points and breaking the key resistance levels 1.10 and 1.11, the pair rate reached a high of 1.1145, which is close and finished the trading session.


The euro dollar forecast for today expect - corrective decline in the euro zone in a price quotation 1.1070 ÷ 1.1030. Next, look for a pair of reversal and continuation of the euro dollar growth to the price levels: 1.1145;1.1216; 1.1278 and possibly higher towards key resistance level of 1.13.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/04/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Briton at auction pleasantly surprised the market on Wednesday. From a narrow range of trading in Asia and the minimum level of 1.4382 at the opening of the European session, the pair course literally soared, breaking a series of key resistance levels of 1.44, 1.45 and 1.46, and fixing the daily high at 1.4647 price level. Driver rapid move sterling began reporting positive data on business activity in the UK, published on Monday and Wednesday. The January index of manufacturing activity was better than expected and amounted to 52.9 points.index of business activity in the services sector also exceeded forecasts and reached 55.6 points. Moreover, both figures for the previous month (December) have also been increased. The data have significantly improved investor sentiment and caused them to overestimate the prospects of higher interest rates.

At the same statistics from the United States over the past three days (Yes, actually, before too) disappointed the market, which led investors to commence the reduction of short positions on the pound. Thus, active correction of the British currency, which we have seen in recent days reflected the normalization of market sentiment against the pound, which, moreover, was supported by the positive rumors on the progress in the negotiations between the EU and the UK about the possible withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU structure.

The pound against the dollar today expect - an attempt to pair to test 1.4647 previous high level. If the breakdown takes place, quotations pound dollar will continue to rise in price levels: 1.47; 1.4736; 1.4770 and 1.48. If, however, the "bulls" will not be able to push the pair above 1.4647,  the pound \ dollar  unfold to reduce to the target levels: 1.4562; 1.4537; 1.45 and 1.4477.

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Forex. The forecast for gold prices today 02/04/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Recently, gold shows a positive trend. Uncertainty in the markets is clearly contributes to the fact that investors have begun to show interest in safe assets. In addition, as it became known from the report of China Gold Association, China's metal demand continues to grow, due to the recent collapse of the country's stock market and the flight of investors into defensive assets. It follows from this document, in 2015 delivery gold on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 91% of the world production of the metal volume. As a whole, last year China bought 986 tons of gold. Demand for jewelry of precious metal in the same period grew by 2.1% to 722 tons, while the demand for gold bullion - by 4.8%, to 173 tons. Also increased and selling coins. The increase was 78% or 22.8 tons. The use of precious metals in the industry also increased by 3.5%, amounting to 68 tonnes of gold. In turn, specializing in gold exchange-traded funds also continue to increase the total position on the metal, which is already 48.8 million. Oz, up 1.76 mln. Oz more than in the beginning of this year.

This optimistic for the "bulls" background gold buying at yesterday's auction resumed growth. Additional support for the metal have a negative economic statistics from the United States and the fall of the US dollar across the spectrum of the currency market. As a result, the cost of the most actively traded on the market in April gold futures was $ 1145.34 per troy ounce, rising from a minimum level of Asian on $ 21.07 an ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1143 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes - $ 1148; $ 1153 and $ 1158 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 1137. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1132; $ 1127 and $ 1123 per troy ounce.

Gold today expect - turn metal from its previous growth and reduce the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Prediction silver rate today 02/04/2016

XAG / USD, 4:00.

The cost of the March futures on silver in yesterday's auction also increased and amounted to $ 14.78 per ounce, rising for the day at 38 cents.

As of this morning near term resistance for the metal takes place on the level of the daily rotation - $ 14.70 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by a continuation of the rise to the target level - $ 14.80; $ 14.95 and $ 15.05 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 14.55 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 14.40; $ 14.27 and $ 14.10 per ounce.

Silver forecast for today expect - turn and decrease in the value of silver to the short-term trend line of $ 14.25 per troy ounce and below.

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Forex. news

In the news section Thursday - at the center of market attention will be the Bank of England decision on the basic interest rate, as well as a summary of the Monetary Policy. The changes are not expected, standard rates will remain at the same level - 0.5%. Today, the monetary policy of the Bank of England, the Committee will publish the results of voting on the basic interest rate and the planned volume of purchases of assets, which is likely to continue at the same level -.. 375 billion pounds 
of considerable interest to attract and quarterly report the Bank of England on inflation and weekly data on the number of initial applications for benefits for unemployment -from the US. 
In other news - Australia is to publish an indicator of economic confidence of the business environment for the 4th quarter. Japan will submit the January data on the volume of foreign investments into the economy of the country and the volume of capital invested per rubezh.Velikobritaniya unveil the January index of housing prices and the euro area Economic Bulletin of the ECB with the analysis of the current and future situation in the region will be published. In addition, the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy will publish the January index of business activity for the retail sector. Germany will also present the PMI for the construction sector. American statistics present data today on the level of productivity of labor in the non-manufacturing sector and the level of labor cost for the 4th quarter of 2015, as well as the December change production orders volume.  
Today, the performances by the Bank of England head Mark Carney and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.


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