Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/03/2016
Yesterday's European trading session was a period of relatively low volatility for the currency pair EUR / USD. A notable increase in the trading volume with the opening of the US market has allowed the exchange rate to break through the support level 1.0850. Despite the slight correction, the short-term downward trend continues to gain momentum with the support of fundamental data and market expectations.
An important parameter that determines the current mood of investors, is published on the last day of the previous month, the consumer price index of the European Union, shows the values below zero. This information was regarded by the market as a unique reason for the possible expansion of the quantitative easing program at a meeting of the ECB - the main tool for combating negative inflation.
Euro Dollar Forecast for today: At today's trading session, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the downward trend. The important support level 1.0800 will be a deterrent to the enthusiasm of the European single currency sellers, and may already be overcome with the start of trading on the west of the Atlantic.
The benchmark is the minimum reduction in the current rate, the value of - 1.0710. The probability of a substantial correction to the 1.0900 resistance level is relatively low.
Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today
After declining in the previous trading week, the currency pair rate of the British pound / US dollar continues to be in the range of about two hundred items, limited from above resistance level 1.4040.
In assessing the future prospects of the course of movement, you can with high probability to assume that in the near future to resume the long-term downtrend. In addition to the technical picture, which indicates the completion of the correction, the pressure on the British currency has a number of significant fundamental factors.
The most important political and economic factor determining the increased offer pound continues to be the risk of release of the United Kingdom from the European Union. And that, according to most economists, have a negative impact on both economies.
The likely trigger resumption of downtrend could be today's publication of the index of business activity in the construction sector. In that case, if the value of the macro-economic indicator fall, skeptical investors about the British currency will receive an additional confirmation, and we will see repeated assault historic lows 1.3830.
Today, the euro dollar exchange rate in the forecast assumes a reduction in the pair GBP / USD support levels 1.2930, 1.3860 and 1.3840.
Forex. Gold price forecast for today 02/03/2016
Retest the maximum value of this year's $ 1248 provoked gold buyers to profit-taking on long positions, and the sellers - to open short. Such unanimity in the market was caused by a rise in stock markets (and hence a decrease in demand for gold as a reserve asset) and published by the United States of positive economic statistics.
The growth index of business activity in the manufacturing sector with a significant increase in construction costs instilled in the majority of market participants confidence in the prospects of the real sector of the US economy, and consequently, high yield fund assets in the near future.
Against this backdrop, the likelihood of the continuation of the upward trend of gold price seems to be relatively low, although a small but very real shortage of the precious metal does not give a price drop significantly.
Thus, in today's trading, most likely, the gold will be in a relatively wide trading range with a lower limit on the level of $ 1215 and the top 1248 $ per ounce, with an important level in the area of its mid $ 1230.
Going beyond this range seems unlikely, however, to publish data on employment in the United States, at a level substantially different from the forecast, the potential to weighty change the balance of supply and demand for the US currency, and as a result, and in gold.
Forex. Prediction silver rate today 02/03/2016
The growth, which allowed the value of silver to fix the session high of $ otmetkoy15 per ounce, was replaced by a rapid decline in the value and return to the opening of the current trading week, $ 14.70.
Despite the high level of demand for the US dollar, supported by fundamental data, as well as the increase in prices on the stock assets, falling metal prices below $ 14.60 looks relatively unlikely.
Most likely, we will see not very dynamic recovery of the lost positions at today's European trading session, and the future direction of the movement will be determined by data on US employment. Breakdown Support $ 14.60 will open the possibility of further lowering the mark of $ 14.30, while a recovery to the level of $ 15.00 will be a trigger for further growth to $ 15.50.
On the economic calendar, the environment at the center of market attention will be the publication of the February data changes in the number of employed in the private sector of the US economy from the agency ADP, an economic overview of the US Fed's regions "Beige Book", as well as Australian GDP growth data for the 4th quarter of 2015 and the volume of housing sales in the primary real estate market in January.
Similar data GDP growth will be presented in Switzerland.
Considerable interest of investors cause hearing BOE Committee on Economic Affairs of the British Parliament and published in the UK in February index of business activity in the construction sector.
Japan will report on changes in the February monetary base.
Spain will publish data changes in the number of unemployed.
The euro zone will present the dynamics of producer prices, while US statistics will be published index of mortgage lending in February, as well as data in gasoline inventories, crude oil and distillate from the US Department of Energy.
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