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Main » 2016 » February » 2 » Forex forecast for today 02/02/2016: USD - correction here to stay!
Forex forecast for today 02/02/2016: USD - correction here to stay!

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 02/02/2016

After the collapse of the euro on Friday, which was triggered by widespread buying of the dollar on Monday, the euro / dollar win back losses. The euro again tested a key resistance level of 1.09 and ended the session at 1.0888 price level. Rolling back the European currency quotations from its previous low (1.0810) was determined mainly by technical factors and correction of the US dollar. 



Mixed data on European PMI were virtually ignored by the market, as growth rates were recorded in Spain and Germany; Italy activity index was lower than the previous value, and in France and the euro area as a whole remained at the level of the previous month. Opposite the American statistics on personal income and expenditure is also not convinced the market. Although, after the publication of the rise of the pair was stopped, but the euro currency exchange rate to maintain the achieved position and finished the day trading at the 1.0896 price level.


Today, the euro against the dollar forward - continued growth of quotations of the euro against the target levels: 1.0916; 1.0950; 1.0965. Here, near the upper boundary of the triangle is worth waiting for correction correction of the pair to decline, although if this level is broken, the euro will continue to price levels: 1.0985, 1.1005, and possibly higher in the direction of the significant resistance level of 1.1034.

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Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 02/02/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Yesterday's release showed business activity index for January in the manufacturing sector of the United Kingdom rose again and reached 52.9 points, beating while December data (52.1 points) and the forecasts of analysts (51.6 points). The indicator again confirmed the increase of industrial activity, with already the 34th consecutive month. The forex market reacted to the positive data increased the demand for a sharp rise in sterling pound dollar pair kotirovak. By the end of trading rate  GBP / USD  has reached the upper limit on the rise correctional model - 1.4443, but this level is overcome and continue to grow failed. During the last week is already 5th testing rather strong technical resistance found in that area. And like the previous four, 5th attempt also was unsuccessful, which is very significantly increases the risk of price reversal and resumption of the downward movement of quotations pound.

Today the rate of sterling against the dollar assume - the resumption of the growth of the pound to the dollar target levels - 1.4443; 1.4562; 1.46 and 1.4632. However, if the correctional model to overcome the border 1.4443 fails, the Briton will unfold to reduce to the target levels: 1.4370; 1.4313 and 1.4268.

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Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 02/02/2016

XAU / USD, 4:00.

According to information from the agency «Bloomberg» specialized in gold exchange-traded funds registered in January, the most significant monthly inflow of deposits during the year, almost 55 tons. US Mint data also showed that last month it sold gold coins to 124 thous. Ounces, 53% higher than a year ago. Australian Mint, in turn, reported a significant increase in sales of gold coins in January to almost 48 thousand. Oz. In addition, in the last few weeks, supporting the gold market provided speculators. Report Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week showed a sharp increase in the number of net long positions in gold, to 16.8 thousand. Contracts - is the highest level in 11 weeks. Amid growing investment attractiveness of the metal value of gold in yesterday's trading increased by $ 10.29 and amounted to $ 1128.17 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1128.65 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal following purposes - $ 1132; $ 1138 and $ 1142 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is at the level of day turn -1123 $. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - 1120 $; 1117 $ and 1114 $ per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today assume - a reversal in metal prices from the previous growth and reduction of quotations of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver at today 02/02/2016

XAG / USD, 4:00.

A similar pattern was observed yesterday and the silver market, where the number of net long positions on the report SFTC increased to 11-week high of 25.4 thousand. Contracts. In January, the US has sold nearly 6 million. Ounces of silver coins, which was the highest monthly level since January of 2013. With the growing demand for the metal value of the March silver futures also rose, and at the end of the trading session went up by 9 cents, to the level of 14.34 $ per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver is held in terms of day reversal - $ 14.29 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.40; $ 14.55 and $ 14.70 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at 233-day moving average - $ 14.21 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further in the direction of the price levels of $ -14.05; $ 13.95 and $ 13.82 per ounce.

Silver today in the forecast expect - turn and decrease the value of silver to the short-term trend line of $ 14.25 per troy ounce or less.

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Forex. news

In Tuesday's economic calendar in the focus of the market would be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be maintained at the same level - 2%.  
A substantial interest will be also published in the German labor market data, including: changes in the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 6.3%). Unemployment rates are also published in the Eurozone (10.5%) and Italy (11.3%). In other news - Japan will report on changes in the January volume of the monetary base; Switzerland will publish the dynamics of the real volume of retail trade in December. Britain will present the January PMI for the construction sector. The euro zone is to publish the December producer price index. And statistics from the United States will - ISM manufacturing index in the state of New York and the January index of economic optimism.

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