Forex. Forecast of the euro against the US dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/29/2016
US dollar after the Fed's meeting on Thursday continued to occupy defensive positions. Initially, the auctions in Asia "bears" still managed to inhibit the development upside EUR \ USD, but disappointing US data on orders for durable goods led to increased "bullish" pressure and lifting the euro to a new week high 1.0967.
The rhetoric of the Fed's FOMC meeting pointed to the likelihood of slower growth rates, as the Committee has worsened assessment of the state of the US economy compared to the December meeting. Although data on the US labor market and pointed to the increase in the number of jobs in the economy, but inflation remained below the long-term target - 2%. Net exports also been weak, and the growth of investment in inventories slowed.Investors have become less and less confidence in the Fed's willingness to follow the course to raise rates four times a year. Now the probability of growth rates at the end of the Fed's March meeting declined to 18%, and another increase is expected not earlier than September. All this continues to keep the dollar under pressure in the medium term strengthens the single European currency.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar today assume - the completion of this corrective decline in the euro area in the key support level of 1.09, further - the resumption of growth in the euro dollar quotations to the target levels: 1.0967; 1.0985; 1.10 and 1.1034.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 01/29/2016
Sterling leader yesterday, up from a minimum level of 1.4237 to the Asian of the new 2-week high of 1.4406.Growth drivers in the pound the dollar began to positive economic data from Albion, demonstrated more rapid growth in the 4th quarter of 2015 compared with the previous period. National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday that the volume of UK GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 0.5%, against 0.4% - in Q3. These were generally in line with economists' forecasts and the authorities, including the Bank of England forecasts. In addition, the economic confidence of consumers in the UK are also seriously improved. The January index reached its highest level since August last year (4). Besides, the strongest forces pound oversold "bears" to close the deal on the sale of foreign currency, removing thus the pressure on the pair, and keeping the probability of further upward correction. Thus, taking into account the previous positive data on inflation and the labor market, it can be assumed that the market sentiment against the British currency gradually begin to change.
Today the pound dollar exchange rate in the forecast assumed - the resumption of lifting and turning a pair of the British currency to the target levels: 1.44; 1.4450 and possibly above a key resistance level - 1.45. Near this level we expect a reversal in the downward correction of the pair.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 01/29/2016
Gold prices on Thursday trading resumed its decline, the driver of which was a technical correction after the price of an ounce of the metal reached nearly 3-month high, recording the top of the previous rise in the price level of $ 1127.91. Catalysts reversal were the growth of the stock market in the United States and the rise in oil futures, reduce the attractiveness of gold as a "safe haven" and provoked the transfer of investments in the equity markets. As a result, the cost of the April gold futures on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» decreased by $ 10.54 - to the level of $ 1114.11 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight reversal - $ 1117 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal following purposes - $ 1123; $ 1127 and $ 1132 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is at the level of the previous local minimum - $ 1110. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1104; $ 1100 and $ 1096 per troy ounce.
Gold today in the forecast assumed - continued corrective decline in the metal price zone 1104 $ ÷ $ 1,100 per ounce, and then a new attempt to test the previous local maximum of $ 1127.91 per troy ounce. Next, look for the resumption of the downward movement of the metal to the above target levels of support.
Forex. Silver Forecast for today 01/29/2016
The cost of the March futures on silver duplicated in yesterday's trading price movements of gold and correcting previous growth, fell at the end of the trading session na23 cents, to a level of $ 14.24 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver is held in terms of day reversal - $ 14.26 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.40; $ 14.55; $ 14.70 and $ 14.95 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver is located at the weekly reversal - $ 14.10 an ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further in the direction of price levels - $ 14; $ 13.95 and $ 13.82 per ounce.
Silver forecast for today forward - continued corrective decline in the metal price zone 14.07 $ ÷ 13.95 $ per ounce, and then a new attempt to test the previous local maximum of $ 14.55 per troy ounce. If we can overcome this level, the rising cost of silver will continue to target levels: $ 14.70 and $ 14.95 per ounce. Next, look for the resumption of the downward movement of the metal to the above target levels of support.
On the economic calendar, Friday the focus will be market - Decision of the Bank of Japan's main interest rate;comments on monetary policy and data on the annual growth of the monetary base. Changes in the rate is not expected, the norm it will be kept at the same level - less than 0.1%. Today a press conference the head of the Bank of Japan - Haruhiko Kuroda.
Significant attention of the market will cause the publication in the United States - economic index of consumer confidence; assessment of current conditions and inflation expectations (for the year and 5 years) - from the University of Michigan. In addition, the US will attract considerable interest the December data on trade balance and January's index of business activity in Chicago.
Among other economic news - Japan is to publish the main consumer price index for December; changes in the volume of orders in the construction sector and the volume of bookmarks of new foundations for housing construction; December level of household expenditure; Preliminary data on the volume of industrial production, as well as the outlook for economic activity and prices. In addition, data will be published on the labor market - the unemployment rate for December (previous rate - 3.3%) and the proportion of the economically active population. Australia will report on the dynamics of the volume of lending to the private sector for December and the producer price index for the 4th quarter. In New Zealand, there are data on changes in the volume of permits issued stroitelstvo.Tsentralny Bank of the Russian Federation will publish a decision on the key interest rate. The changes are not expected, statutory rate will be kept at the same level - 11% .Velikobritaniya present economic index of consumer confidence for January. The euro zone will publish the December data on volume of lending to the private sector and the consumer price index for January. France will publish the December volume of consumer spending; indices of consumer and producer prices, as well as preliminary data on GDP growth in the 4th quarter. Italy will report on unemployment for December (11%). In Spain will be released preliminary index of consumer prices and primary data on GDP growth in the 4th quarter. Switzerland will publish the January index of leading economic indicators and the Swiss National Bank report on the structure of foreign exchange reserves. Canada and the United States will present data on GDP growth for November and Q4, respectively. In addition, Canada will be released December price indexes for raw materials and producer prices, while in the US - the main index of personal consumption expenditures; Index the cost of labor and the price index of GDP for the 4th quarter.
For more information on the movement of currencies in the market, please visit "Maximarkets.ru" under "Research". We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!