Foreign Exchange Market on January 22, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
11.30 MSK. Germany: PMI in the manufacturing sector in January (the previous value of 53.2, forecast 53.0).
12.30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade, taking into account fuel costs in January (the previous value of 1.7% m / m forecast -0.1% m / m).
18.00 MSK. US housing sales in the secondary market in December (the previous value of -10.5% m / m forecast 8.1% m / m).
Today, the euro dollar forecast for the EUR / USD 01/22/2016
The players in the foreign exchange market for the euro dollar in the first half of trading should pay attention to the data released by the Markit PMI for the manufacturing sector in Germany. For the fourth quarter of last year, the index euro lost 2.17%, which is a positive factor for the German industry, since it helps improve the competitiveness of products. Do not leave without attention and increase in factory orders during October and November of last year. In this regard, it is necessary to wait for the growth of optimism among purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector and better output totals median forecasts. Positive data would support short-term demand for the euro, but traders that growth of the euro against the dollar should be used to open short positions. Mario Draghi at yesterday's meeting signaled the player that the ECB is ready to go on March 10 further easing of monetary policy in case of need, it is a negative factor for the euro currency and the statement of Mr Draghi is not surprising. Low oil prices help to reduce inflation expectations in the euro area."We have the ability, the desire and the determination to act," - said the head of the ECB. Pessimism eurozone monetary authorities contributed to the expansion of the yield differential of US and German government bonds by 5 basis points, which increases the attractiveness of investment in assets States.
Recommendations for the euro dollar today: euro Currency traders paired with amrikantsem should sell the euro dollar Sell on growth rate of the euro to 1.0895 / 1.0935 and take profit at 1.0780.
The pound against the dollar today GBP / USD Forecast 01/22/2016
Forex traders pound with greenbacks in the first half of the session will pay attention to the output data on retail sales for December in the UK. In the first eleven months of 2015 the growth rate of sales in the retail sector made up 4.34%, while in the same period a year earlier was recorded an increase of 3.81%. The increase in sales was made possible thanks to the growth of the labor market. The unemployment rate in the UK is 5.1%, is the lowest level in 10 years. That growth of average earnings in the fourth quarter of last year, though reduced, but still higher than a year earlier. Today totals probably come a little better than consensus forecast, as the British could increase their spending on the eve of the Christmas holidays. Debt market also do not leave unattended. For the second trading day yields on 10-year government bonds rising British against the German and American, it increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of Albion, and support the demand for sterling. It is worth noting that at the press conference of the ECB Mario Draghi said that a steep dive in the oil market is forcing the regulator to a change in monetary policy in March. In fact, in the first month of spring will not be possible to change, but the market has lived with rumors, and now this factor is sufficient for correction in the cross-rate EUR / GBP, it is also in the hands of the British customers.
Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today: Player sterling to the US dollar should buy the pair Pound Dollar Buy's price cut to levels of 1.4190 / 1.4150 and a target at 1.4310.
The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY Forecast 01/22/2016
Forex traders on the dollar in tandem with the currency of the country of the Rising Sun is waiting for predominance today "bullish" sentiment. At yesterday's auction the world has seen the demand for "risky assets": the leading stock markets showed some growth of quotations, oil and industrial metals showed stronger growth. European stock markets helped the ECB - Monetary regulator announced its readiness to further easing of monetary policy. Leading German DAX30 index finished trading in the "green zone" - an increase of 1.94%. Stimulating the economy traditionally warms up demand for equities. Inflation in the euro zone at the end of 2015 was 0.25%, and the ECB is willing to further stimulation. In Japan, at the end of eleven months the rate of CPI growth is 0.19%. Most likely, similar comments we hear from the head of the Bank of Japan on January 29 when a meeting of the regulator. It's all well aware, market participants and will be proactive, thereby putting additional pressure on the yen. America, in the second half of the session, to publish data on housing sales in the secondary market. Release from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates output data worse than the consensus forecast. Refinancing index fell by 5.06% amid rising mortgage rates. FOMC Meeting on December 16 raised the discount rate by 0.25%, which is reflected in the mortgage market. At the same time in November registered a decline of real wages in the US by 0.1%. Negative data will contribute to the short-term pressure on the greenback.
Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today: the player is worth buying a couple of dollar yen Buy on dips to levels of 117.15 / 116.85 and 118.00 at Target.