Currency market forecast for January 19, 2016, EUR / USD
Forex traders news today:
05.00 MSK. China: Volume change in real GDP for the 4th quarter (the previous value of 1.8% q / q, 6.9% y / y, forecast 1.8% q / q, 6.9% y / y).
12.30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index for December (the previous value of 0.1% y / y; the forecast of 0.1% y / y).
13.00 MSK. Germany: Sentiment in the business environment of the ZEW institute in January (the previous value of 16.1, forecast 8.2).
13.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer price index for December (the previous value of 0.2% y / y; the forecast of 0.2% y / y).
The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD forecast for 01/19/2016
In financial markets, the world came the day "X". Today, trading in Asia, in China, there are data on GDP for the 4th quarter of 2015, which will determine the dynamics of trading the forex market. Leading indicators point to a significant slowdown in economic growth. Markit PMI industrial sphere in the past year was only just above the level of 50% - in February. There is growing pessimism and among purchasing managers in the services sector. People's Bank of China in 2015 spent 513 billion. Dollars from foreign reserves to maintain the stability of the financial system, this factor also should not be left unattended. In 2015, China spent 13.3% of its "Potbelly", while in 2014 there was an increase of gold reserves at 0.56%. Although there are positive: the trade surplus last year reached 603.34 billion US dollars, up 59.04% more than in 2014. Today, data is likely to come out in China, slightly worse than the consensus forecast, which will cause a new wave of sales "risky assets". This factor will support the quotation euro as currency funding. Final data on inflation, will be released within the median forecasts, and will not cause a strong reaction on the part of traders. Today, market players will focus attention on the macroeconomic statistics from China.
Recommendations for the euro dollar today as traders in the euro worth buying an American couple Buy's price cut to levels of 1.0880 / 1.0850 and 1.0960 on the objectives.
The pound against the dollar today GBP / USD Forecast 01/19/2016
Today the main event for the players as for the sterling, the output report Albion CPI for December. In England, the labor market generates mixed data. Increasing employment, which is an indicator of inflation. However, the growth in average wages reduced that negative factor for consumer prices. In recent months, oil market seen strong sales, which will have a downward pressure on the CPI. The Bank of England in the review of the last meeting signaled he expects decline in inflation in the short term. In America, yesterday was a holiday in the debt market, and in this regard, we are left with no differential in yields of US and British bonds. This yield spread on 10-year German bonds English and expanded it for the sterling positive factor. Taking into account the factors identified short-term growth of the British traders should be used to build short positions.
Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today as traders on the pound to sell a couple of greenbacks worth Sell on growth of the pound to the levels of 1.4300 / 1.4340 and 1.4245 at Target.
The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY Forecast 01/19/2016
Since the yen is the currency of funding №1 operations carry trade, and China, as noted, is unlikely to please the players forex strong GDP data for the fourth quarter of last year, today in the USD / JPY pair is likely the development of descending again trengda. Negative data from China will contribute to the prevalence of bearish sentiment on the world's leading stock markets. Reducing "risk appetite" among investors will cause the demand for protective assets: primarily the Japanese yen, gold and the euro. Yesterday's auction of the Old World stock indicators closed in the "red zone": DAX30 index lost 0.25%, FTSE 100 sank 0.42%. It is worth noting the fact that the shares of Deutsche Bank fell 3.42%, while the market capitalization of one of the leading UK banks Barclays declined by 2.16%. Banking sector feels much worse than the market, which traditionally indicates a decrease in "risk appetite" among investors.
Recommendations for the dollar against the yen today: Players pair dollar, the yen is trading within a couple of sell Sell on growth rate to 117.40 / 117.70 and closed at 116.79 transaction.