Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/18/2016
The mood in the global markets continues to set the raw materials, where the speaker once again deteriorating. Brent has constantly updates the minimums already threatening the level of $ 29 per barrel. Besides lifting of sanctions against Iran, and output to, and already crowded market, to 1 million. Barrels of oil daily can lead to a collapse in oil prices, followed by collapse, and prices for raw materials.
This situation provoked at auction on Friday exodus of investors from risky assets, the sale of which has caused the rapid growth of the single European currency. In addition, support for the main currency pair and has published negative economic data from the US: the fall retail sales and weak data in industrial production and manufacturing production.
In these circumstances, the pair euro / dollar again broke the key resistance level of 1.09 and tested on the rise, so-called "neck line" graphic reversal patterns "Inverted Head and Shoulders" - 1.0984 (4-hour timeframe).
Break up this level - if it takes place - will lead to further growth of the single currency and the testing of new key levels of 1.10 and 1.11.
Further, in the American session players took profits on the eve of "long" weekend (Monday in the US holiday - Martin Luther King Day) closed a deal to buy the single currency. The pair started on this background correction and ended the day at a price level 1.0912.
The euro dollar today assume the completion of the current decline in the price zone couples 1.09 ÷ 1.0875.Then forward to the resumption of the upward movement of the pair to target levels 1.0950, 1.0985, and 1.10.
Forex. The forecast for the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today
The Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday, did not change the set in March 2009, the level of interest rates, keeping at a record low of 0.5% per annum. The Bank of England also did not change and the amount of the asset purchase program, leaving unchanged at 375 billion pounds. The only member of the Committee on monetary policy, voted in favor of an immediate rate increase of 0.5%, as before, has become Ian McCafferty, whose position was that the decline in the pound negative impact on inflation and therefore is a powerful argument for the need to increase rates .
In addition, at this meeting, the Bank of England cut its forecasts for economic growth to 0.5% in the 4th quarter 2015 and 1st quarter of 2016. Thus, the British regulator once again left its monetary policy unchanged, but without the support of the national currency.
The market reacted adequately and at auction on Friday began again to sell the British pound against the US dollar. From the opening day level 1.4425 the pair was on the decline around 180 points and closed trading at new multi-year low 1.4248.
Pound today expect a corrective retracement of the pair to target levels 1.4312 and 1.4370.
If the "bulls" on the pound will be able to push this level, then the pair will continue to rise to the key resistance level of 1.44 or higher.
Forex. Gold rate forecast for today
"Bulls" in gold on the auction on Friday managed to recover losses the previous day and lock on the rise a new 3-day high of $ 1097.30 per ounce. Metal driver of growth were the statements of President of St. Louis Fed James Bullard. He expressed doubts about the necessity of the next rate hike in March. This statement has weakened the dollar and sparked buying of the metal.
In addition, as it became known, it began to grow again, gold exports to Asian countries. According to customs data, in November, Switzerland exported nearly 189 tons of gold. And, although the YoY is 16% less, but compared with the previous month, the volume of shipments increased by 47%. Of these, eighty percent of all the gold was sent to Asia, with particularly significant on the eve of holiday festivals increased exports to India (to 81.5 tons).
Against this background, the activity of the "bulls" throughout the day was high, which made it possible to minimize the correction and complete trades have reached a maximum.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of $ 1089 weekly reversal ounce.
The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following objectives - $ 1099, $ 1104 and $ 1109 per ounce.
Immediate support for the gold price level is located at 1085 $ an ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels to $ 1080, $ 1077 and $ 1071 per troy ounce.
In our forecast for Monday is expected to further increase in the metal to target the above-mentioned resistance levels.
Forex. The forecast rate of silver today
Silver at auction on Friday showed a similar trend. On the eve of the achieved level ($ 13.74) quotations of the metal rose in the area and tested the previous high level of $ 14.12 per ounce.
The new fall in commodity prices before the lifting of sanctions against Iran, and a sharp increase in the supply of oil supply (up to 1 mln. Barrels - daily) provoked a swift pullback value of the metal, which is a course at the end of trading dropped to $ 13.89 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver is held in terms of weekly reversal 13.94 $ per ounce.
If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 14, $ 14.20, $ 14.25 and $ 14.40 per ounce.
Immediate support for silver settled at a price level of 13.87 $ per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 13.70, $ 13.60 and below.
In our forecast on silver metal we look forward to the resumption of recovery and growth of its value to the above target levels of resistance.
The economic calendar Monday, you can highlight the publication of Australian inflation data for December;January's housing price index - in the United Kingdom; Japanese industrial output data, the capacity utilization rate and the index of business activity in the service sector in November.
The European Central Bank will announce the weekly purchases of securities, and Italy will publish a final trade balance and the trade balance with the EU in November.
In addition, France will hold an auction for the sale of 3, 6 and 12-month government debt. In the United States today is a holiday - Martin Luther King Day. Markets are closed, the statistics will not be published.
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