Currency market forecast for January 13, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
13.00 MSK. Eurozone: Industrial Production for November (the previous value of 0.6% m / m forecast -0.2% m / m).
18.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in January (previous value -5,085M; forecast 2,504M).
The euro exchange rate against the US dollar today EUR / USD Forecast 01/13/2016
Today in the first half of the trading day will be released by Eurostat report on industrial production in the Eurozone. Leading indicators are mixed background. Positive Manufacturing PMI gives a chance to rely on the data output bit better consensus. However, in Germany and France (half of the eurozone economy) in November recorded a decrease of industrial production, which signals the development of a negative scenario. No clear trend on the bond market: bond yields in Germany decreased in relation to the securities of the United States, but it is growing in relation to the British bonds. Yesterday, trading on exchanges in the United States are in the red zone: Paper energy sector dragged down the sales of black gold, which has a negative impact on the major stock indexes. Closing of carry trade positions for the euro, as the funding currency is a positive factor.
Recommendations for the euro dollar today: Players on the euro with the American side should not expect trading in the range 1.0820 -1.0925.
The course of sterling to the British today GBP / USD Forecast 01/13/2016
Sellers are pound in the forex market. They have reason to - again to increase short positions on short-term growth rate of the pound dollar. Yesterday's weak industrial production data for November in England disappoint market participants. Total Score decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. Corporation Albion suffer from weak external demand and a strong exchange rate of sterling against the euro. Taking into account the reduction in factory orders and the reduction of the index Manufacturing PMI, and in December, we should not expect strong data. In this regard, we find a negative trend of the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter.Since the market is working ahead of the curve - investors are beginning to lay in quotes pessimistic expectations for the GDP of the United Kingdom for the fourth quarter 2015. Or slightly better situation for the British and the credit markets: the yield on 10-year British government bonds decreased to US and German, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in assets England. Oil traders are preparing to test the psychological level of $ 30 / bbl for Brent, as the cost of raw materials denominated in US currency, it is positive for the greenback.
Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today: a player with bucks a pound worth selling a couple Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.4505 / 1.4545 and a target at 1.4445.
The dollar and the yen today USD / JPY in the forecast 01.13.2016
Bidding for the pound dollar pair again today will determine the presence of investors' appetite for risk. " In the world's major stock markets yesterday saw an increase in quotes for the yen as a funding currency is a negative factor. Although the Shanghai Composite Index on the Chinese stock exchange barely managed to close trading in the "green zone", which indicates the absence of strong buyers. Since China started to panic on global stock markets began, and the stabilization of the market share in China, will signal to investors about the end of the period of high volatility. Another good indicator of the demand for "risk assets" - the index MSCI Emerging Markets, which yesterday even managed to show a negative trend, when almost all stocks were in the "green". Thus, the conclusion is that the growth of quotations on Tuesday at the world's stock markets is a correction, and soon the players once again expects a new wave of sales "risky assets". The elimination of carry trade deals is traditionally positive for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. On the debt market, a decline in the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the rising sun. It is worth noting that in the USD / JPY pair three times in a row is rolled back from the region of 118 pieces, which indicates the presence of strong sellers are gaining short positions and preparing for the strong downward movement.
Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today. Traders on the dollar with the yen should sell a couple Sell on price increases to the levels of 117.80 / 118.20 and closed at 117.00 transaction.