Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today December 1, 2015
Yesterday's trading the forex market, the euro \ dollar continued its decline against the background of investors' expectations of the ECB meeting. Earlier, speaking at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the December meeting, the regulator will assess the sustainability of the factors that slow down the growth of inflation to the target level of 2%, and if achieving the target level of consumer prices will remain under the threat will be use of all tools available to the Central Bank.
Given that Draghi has repeatedly warned of the increased risks to the economic growth of the Eurozone, the prospect of new stimulus measures on this background was the driver of monotonic decline of the euro, in particular, has been demonstrated at yesterday's auction, during which the rate of Euro \ dollar fell 28 points, to the level of 1.0564.
Analyzing the situation on the eve of the meeting, it is worth noting that the mood of the market changes in the coming monetary policy of the European Bank actually quite high. In addition, the market has leaked information that the regulator is prepared to consider the introduction of a number of additional measures to stimulate - from the two-tier penalty fees for banks, placing surplus funds in securities (rather than put them on lending to businesses), to buy up regional and municipal bonds. Apparently, the ECB seriously set to flood the European economy of liquidity, which is certainly a negative for the euro. However, we do not believe that the meeting of the Central Bank itself can cause a noticeable change in foreign exchange rates. If the controller is limited to the reduction of deposit rate by 10 basis points and the extension of the program of fiscal stimulus for 2017 (which is already fully priced in), and will not apply in this case more aggressive additional incentives, the euro could reverse the decline and turn the correction necessitated long overdue. Thus, on the eve of the meeting of the market it is still in a situation of uncertainty, and therefore, the price dynamics of the pair before the promulgation of the decisions made will remain very moderate.
The euro dollar today in the forecast assumed - the completion of decrease in pair, turn and lift euro exchange rate to the target levels: 1.06; 1.0630 and 1.0660.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today December 1, 2015
Risk aversion and demand for the dollar on expectations of a December rate hike US Federal Reserve caused the morning fall of the British currency to the new 7-month low of 1.4992. However, in European trading situation has changed. The sharp strengthening of sterling in tandem with the single European currency has strengthened demand for the pound against the US dollar, which caused the "bulls" on active buying of the currency. Furthermore, an additional driver of demand for the British currency was the publication in Britain of positive data on mortgage lending and lending to private individuals. As a result of the progress in the reduction of the minimum rate of the pair turned on the rise and by the end of the day fixed the maximum at the level of 1.5067, while retaining the potential for further growth currency.
Today the GBP / USD forecast to assume - continued rise of the British currency to the upper boundary of the triangle correction. Target levels rise: 1.5085; 1.51; 1.5120; 1.5146 and 1.5170. *** If the sellers will be able to repay the British currency demand and overcome the "bullish" on the local minimum resistance of 1.4992, could be followed by a further decline of the pair to the lower boundary of the correction range of 1.4930, which, then, we expect renewed rise to the above target levels.
Forex. The forecast price of gold today 01/12/2015
Gold futures rose on Monday, but it has not changed significantly reducing the monthly price for the metal. The monthly decline was the highest in more than 2 years. The background for the price reduction, as before, were waiting the December Fed rate hike. December futures for gold at the end of yesterday rose $ 7.50, to the level of $ 1064.11 an ounce. February futures, which are currently the most actively traded, rose $ 9.10, to the level of $ 1065.30 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of 233-day moving average - $ 1073 per ounce, hour timeframe. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal target levels - $ 1077; $ 1080 and $ 1088 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of daily and weekly rotation - $ 1063. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1053 and $ 1044 per ounce.
Rate of gold today in the forecast assumed - continued growth in the value of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Forex. The forecast rate of silver at today 01/12/2015
Under the influence of the same factors similar dynamics in the auction on Monday demonstrated and silver.Cost of December futures for the metal rose 1 cent to the level of 14.07 $ per ounce. March delivery, the most actively traded in the market, rose 3.8 cents to $ 14.90 price level per troy ounce. As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of its daily and weekly rotation - $ 14.10 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.20 and $ 14.40 per ounce. Immediate support for silver settled at a price level - $ 13.95 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the next target - $ 13.80 and below.
Silver today in the forecast are expecting - the resumption of growth in the value of the metal to the above target levels of resistance.
The economic calendar on Tuesday - the focus of the market would be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be maintained at the same level - 2%. Other very important indicators will be published in the United States, Japan, Australia, China, Great Britain, Switzerland and Canada - October index of economic activity for the production sector. Similar figures will be published in the Eurozone, as well as the region's leading economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
Significant interest is also - the publication of Canadian data on GDP growth for September and 3rd quarter of this year, and the US - ISM manufacturing index for November. It should also pay attention to the publication in October of Australia changes the volume of building permits issued and the balance of current account Balance of Payments for the 3rd quarter and in the statistics from China - to publish an index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector.
No less important for investors in this day and will be published in the German labor market data, including: changes in the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 6.4%).Similar figures will be published in the euro area (10.8%), Italy (11.8%) and in Switzerland. Moreover, in Switzerland there are data on the volume of GDP for the third quarter and changes in the real volume of retail trade in October.
Among other economic news - New Zealand is to publish quarterly terms of trade. Japan will report on changes in the volume of capital expenditure for the third quarter. The Bank of England will publish the December report on financial stability and the results of stress tests of major banks in the country. And in the US will be released changes in the volume of spending in the construction sector in October. Today will be the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
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