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Main » 2016 » September » 1 » Forex forecast for today 01.09.2016: EUR / USD - Flete, GBP / USD - three reasons to sell!
Forex forecast for today 01.09.2016: EUR / USD - Flete, GBP / USD - three reasons to sell!



Forex. Weather forecast on September 1, 2016


The main events forex today:

  • 11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the production sector in August (the previous value of 48.2, forecast 49.1).
  • 15.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in August (the previous value of 261K; 265K forecast).
  • 17:00 MSK. US: ISM manufacturing index for August (the previous value of 52.6, forecast 52.0).


Forex. Forecast exchange rate of the currency pair EUR USD EUR / USD today on September 1


Given a pair of euro dollar mixed pattern formed today.



In the credit markets, the yield on 10-year German government bonds rising American and British counterparts, it increases the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the Old World. In the midst of Europe's trading traders should wait for the cross-rate of growth of quotations EUR / GBP on the back of weak data from Albion, this will provide additional support for Euro-currency in the pair with the American. But in the second half of trading on the foreign exchange market should not expect positive data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector of the ISM, it will support the US currency. This last four months, the indicator shows a positive trend against the background of increasing production capacity should not expect a continuation of the trend. Do not leave without attention and the fall in commodity prices, oil and metals, which can help amrikantsa quotes, as raw material costs are denominated in US dollars. 

EUR / USD recommendation Traders should wait for the flat in the range 1,1120-1,1190.



Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound dollar GBP / USD today on September 1


The British currency has three trading days in the forex market traded in the flat, and probably in the near future we will see a way out of this range down. When will it happen? Either today or tomorrow in the second half of trading on the news on the US labor market. Why move down? Three reasons for this. 


First , today, is to wait for the weak PMI data for the UK manufacturing sector, which is negative for the pound. The indicator of business confidence fell to its lowest level in seven years in the third quarter, while the volume of factory orders fell strongly after the announcement of results of the referendum on membership in ES 


Second , in the credit markets, the yield on 10-year British government bonds decreased in relation to the German and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the Kingdom of assets. 


Third , strong sales in the oil market after the negative data out of the US States will have additional pressure on the quotation GBP / USD. Oil reserves in the United States increased by 2.27 million. Barrels when the consensus forecast of 1.31 million. Barrels. Oil consumption has decreased by 0.06 million. Barrels / day, which alarmed the market participants. As a result, quotations of Brent slipped by 3.7%, after oil pulled down the other instruments of the commodity market.


GBP / USD recommendation: pound Investors should prodavta couple today GBP / USD  the Sell on the growth of quotations to 1.3140 / 1.3180 and take profit at the level of 1.3070.


Forex. The forecast of the dollar, the yen USD / JPY today 01/09/2016

The dynamics of trading in the credit and stock markets indicates the development of a downward correction in the dollar yen pair. The differential in yield of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds is reduced, it reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets. In global stock markets negative dynamics was observed in the environment - the main indices closed in the "red zone". The largest decline in the United States against the backdrop of a strong drop in oil prices were shares of the energy sector. VIX fear index the day before showed an increase of 3%, which also confirms the decrease in risk appetite. After the employment data from ADP on Wednesday began to increase the yield of short-term US Treasury bonds, it is a negative factor for the US stock market. Thus, a technical correction in the currency pair is overdue. Although the massive sales of the dollar is not worth waiting, as America continues to make investors and positive data on the market are waiting for good data on employment on Friday, September 2, which causes investors to build long positions on pullbacks and not allow the pair to fall too much. 


USD / JPY recommendations : The players who invest in a couple of dollar, the yen, today worth waiting lateral trade in the range of 102.80 -103.80






Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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