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Main » 2016 » July » 1 » Forex forecast for today 01.07.2016: GBP - the weakest link!
Forex forecast for today 01.07.2016: GBP - the weakest link!



Weather forex July 1, 2016

Forex news traders today:

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the manufacturing for June (the previous value of 50.1, forecast 50.2).

17:00 MSK. US: ISM manufacturing index for June (the previous value of 51.3, forecast 51.6).

Forex. Forecast EUR / USD today July 1, 2016

Today, the euro against the dollar generated a mixed background.


On the one hand, the credit markets the yield on 10-Feeds German government bonds rising in relation to their counterparts in the US and in Great Britain's, which indicates an upward trend for the single European currency.The growth of cross-rate EUR / GBP will also provide support to the euro against the dollar. On the other hand, from the ISM report on the US manufacturing sector may please investors strong data that will support the demand for the dollar. Why today we can see the strong data? First, the correction by the dollar index, which was observed in the first quarter, a positive impact on the trade balance and a report on factory orders demonstrates the positive trend. Second, the US economy has traditionally demonstrates the acceleration of economic growth and key macro-economic indicators signaled that this year, this trend will continue in the second and third quarter. Third, the rise in prices of raw materials helps to increase the production capacity in the energy sector, which should also be welcomed by the managers in the industrial sector procurement. 


EUR / USD recommendation: Today in the forex players on the euro dollar is worth waiting for sideways trading in the range 1.1040 -1.1180.


Forex. Forecast GBP / USD today July 1, 2016

Players on the pound against the greenbacks in the first half of currency trading you should pay attention to the report of the PMI index of industrial sphere UK. In our view, the indicator will be worse than expected median, it will put pressure on the pound.

Firstly, Brexit is a negative factor for the economy of the United Kingdom and the respondents Markit will not leave this fact without attention.

Secondly, factory orders are down, signaling a reduction of production capacity.

Thirdly, the British investment company declining for two consecutive quarters. Corporations go to such measures, when the expected economic slowdown or recession.

Fourth, a quarterly business confidence index is again in the negative area, indicating that the decline in business activity. The United States on the other hand, as noted earlier, today can please investors moderately positive data that embolden the bears to build short positions. In the credit markets, the yield on 10-year British government bonds demonstrates a strong decline in relation to the German and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the Kingdom of assets. 


GBP / USD Recommendations: Players on the pound against the US dollar today, the forex market is a pair of quotations Sell on rise to 1.3350 / 1.3500 and take profit at the level of 1.3150.



Forex. Forecast USD / JPY today July 1, 2016

In the first half of the trading dynamics will determine the inflation report in Japan in May. "High base" in May 2015 can not be expected to yield positive data. It is impossible to ignore the decline in gasoline prices at the end of May by 1.8%, as well as the strengthening of the national currency (the first five months of 2016 the yen rose against the dollar by 7.9%), which traditionally has a negative impact on consumer prices. Consumer demand in the Land of the Rising Sun is still low: retail sales in May decreased by 1.9% y / y, the negative trend observed during the last three months. Thus, weak data put pressure on the yen in the first half of the day as the market again there will talk about the need for new stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. In the afternoon, the United States can please the traders a positive report on the ISM manufacturing sector index, which also plays into the hands of "bulls". Thus, we have a strong buy signal, but there is one factor that worries me greatly. USD / JPY The pair continues to ignore the growing "appetite for risk" and barely came up to the eve of the upper boundary of the 4-day the flat 101.39 -103.25. Ignoring positive background is only possible if many sellers on the market. If this hypothesis is confirmed, the growth of quotations to 103.30 / 103.70, these sellers will be used to build short positions. Thus, until the US trading session better not to trade and see how things develop. If the European session we will see a decrease in quotations, from the opening of trading in New York will also need to "short". 


USD / JPY recommendations: Forex Traders pair yen dollar today is worth waiting for trade in a flat within the range of 101.50 -103.50.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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