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Main » 2016 » January » 6 » Forex forecast for today 01/06/2016: The optimal strategy - selling EUR / USD correction
Forex forecast for today 01/06/2016: The optimal strategy - selling EUR / USD correction

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/06/2016

In yesterday's trading the currency market Forex EUR / USD lost 125 points, declining confidence in the European and US sessions. Consecutive sample revealed levels of support to the single currency sellers all new opportunities for earnings than they used successfully, not hurrying to close short positions.Achieving a local minimum at the level of 1.0710 that was the point at which the majority of investors, it was decided to fix the profit, which was the trigger for the start of the correction.



Today's auction will be held under the influence of quite unidirectional both technical and fundamental factors.Growth in consumer prices in the European Union has not met the expectations of most economists about the growth of the inflation rate at the end of 2015. The result was the formation of opinion among market participants that during 2016 the European Central Bank will go to the expansion of economic stimulus measures. It is worth noting that during the previous month the regulator has reduced the deposit interest rate, which had previously been negative, and extended quantitative easing program until March 2017. At the same time, assessing the prospects of the currency pair EUR / USD, it is not necessary forget the potential to continue to increase the refinancing rate by the Federal Reserve, which clearly increases the demand for the US dollar. Thus, the strategic investor expectations surely line up in one direction - the depreciation of the currency of the Old World with respect to the new currency.



The euro dollar today in the forecast: From a technical point of view, in the first half of the current trading session, we expect a continuation of the correction rate to the level of 1.0780, which, with high probability, be replaced by the resumption of the downtrend. The impetus for opening short positions will be information about the lack of growth of business activity in Europe. The objectives will be to reduce support levels 1.0710 and 1.0630.

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Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 01/06/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The cost of greenbacks  to the US dollar since the beginning of the current trading week in a classic downtrend consistently updating minimum values. Despite this, the relatively low dynamics indicates a lack of confidence among market participants about the prospects for further reduction of the currency of the United Kingdom.

The reason for such behavior of market participants is a complex of two factors. On one side is the growth in demand for the US dollar due to the Fed's policy direction and growth of the US economy. On the other, waiting for the gradual tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England, which is considered by most analysts to be expressed in a gradual increase in the refinancing rate in the next two years. A study conducted by one of the world's largest consulting companies Deloitte has witnessed two important sight. First - this is the confidence of financial directors of the largest British companies enough stability of the corporate sector and its willingness to deal with the deterioration of credit conditions, and hence the support for the action of the regulator. The second fact revealed by the study is to decrease among large business among the supporters of the UK's membership of the European Union. This added reason to spread rumors about the possibility of transferring a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom from the European Union for the current year. The given opinions for the moment, are the rumors and expectations, but at this stage have a certain support for the currency pair GBP / USD exchange rate of not allowing an empty peak after other dollar assets.


Pound dollar today in the forecast: Taking into account the above-described situation in the market in today's trading session, we expect an even greater slowdown in the downward trend and a sufficiently high probability of the transition rate to the sideways trend, with a lower limit on the local minimum 1.4630. The level of resistance, which can be an upper limit of the possible horizontal band, is at around 1.4700.

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Forex. Forecast the price of gold and silver today 01/06/2015

XAU / USD, 4:00.

The price of an ounce of gold at the auction on January 5 showed low multidirectional dynamics. The reason for this was formed the technical picture - for the past month, gold continues to be in the medium-term trend with the top horizontal border near the current value - $ 1080 per ounce. To reach the mark, in conjunction with the fundamental reason is the extremely formidable obstacle for continued growth. The immediate prospects for the precious metals market, as well as other types of commodities, will be determined by the general state of the global economy. In this context, it is important to take into consideration the state's two largest economies in the world, located on the opposite shores of the Pacific Ocean. On the one hand the United States show a gradual increase in economic performance, as a result, the Fed is tightening monetary policy, which has a positive effect on the demand for dollars and raises its price relative to resources. On the other hand, the instability of the economy of China has been clearly demonstrated by this year's first trading session, during which the main stock indexes in China lost an average of 7% which led to a halt of trading. It is important to bear in mind that the Celestial Empire, today is the world's largest consumer of minerals, and thus weakening its economy will lead to a reduction of the actual demand for resources, including gold. Thus, the strategic prospects of the price of the precious metal does not look rosy, and reaching the level of $ 1,000 an ounce is probably enough in the current quarter.

With regard to the dynamics of today's trading session, it is in harmony with the strategic direction. Reaching the upper limit of the current sideways trend $ 1080 and the formation on the hourly chart technical reversal patterns gives good reason to believe that today we will see decline in gold prices to the levels of support for $ 1070, $ 1066 and perhaps $ 1060 per ounce.

The cost of silver is still in the framework of horizontal corridor bounded below $ 13.70 support level, and the top resistance $ 14.40 per ounce. At the same time, from a fundamental point of view of the impact of the course it has the same affect on the gold set of factors. This risks reducing actual consumption due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the transition from speculators lose in the price of commodity assets in confidence rising in price the dollar.

Consequently, effective and safe strategy to be aggressive trade silver metal when the sale price of its upper limit of the current range at $ 14.40 per troy ounce.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAG / USD, 4:00.

Forex. news

In an economic environment in calendar focus of the market will be published in the minutes of the last meeting of the US Fed rates. Other very important indicators will - December change in the number of employed in the private sector of the US economy - from the agency ADP; Publication of the composite index for the ISM non-productive sphere, including - the index of employment in the non-manufacturing sector for December; as well as the totals of the November trade balance of the USA and Canada.  
A significant investor interest will attract publication in China, Japan, Australia, the UK and the US index of business activity in the service sector, as well as the composite index comprising the combined data on both sectors of the economy of these regions . Similar rates are also published in the Eurozone and in leading regional economies -Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Among other economic news - The United Kingdom introduced the December index of retail prices and housing prices. The eurozone will report on the dynamics of producer price index for November. And the US will publish the November data on volumes of production orders; the dynamics of the index of mortgage lending in December, and the data on stocks of gasoline, crude oil and distillate - from the US Department of Energy.


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