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Main » 2016 » January » 6 » Forex forecast for today 01/06/2016: In the euro pushes low inflation
Forex forecast for today 01/06/2016: In the euro pushes low inflation

Currency market forecast for January 6, 2016, EUR / USD

News forex traders today:

12.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the services sector in December (the previous value of 55.9, forecast 55.6).

16.15 MSK. US: Change in the number of employees from ADP in December (the previous value of 217K; forecast 193K).

16.30 MSK. US trade balance for November (the previous value -43.89B; forecast -44.0B).

18.00 MSK. USA: A composite index for the ISM non-production sphere in December (the previous value of 55.9, forecast 56.0).

18.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy (previous value 2,629M; forecast -0,500M).

22.00 MSK. US: Publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. 



The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD Forecast 01/06/2016


Forex traders on the euro with dollars in a first half of trading worth waiting predominance "bearish." Weak data on inflation in the euro area in November contributed to the expansion of the yield differential of US and German government bonds, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the old world, and will be pressure on the euro. In the second half of the trading dynamics of the pair define reports from the ISM services and US Department of Energy on crude oil stockpiles. These indicators are among the leading and need to trade upon. If business activity in the services sector will better consensus forecast, and commercial stocks of crude oil will increase - we expect a further decrease in quotations of the single European currency.Otherwise, the American trade we will see a partial profit taking on short positions and some rolled back up. In view of the negative dynamics of the quarterly index of ISM, as well as reducing the number of operating rigs in the United States in December to 46 units - we expect it is the second scenario. Late in the evening will be published minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. In my opinion, the market reaction to this event will not be significant since the December meeting of the FED was accompanied by a press conference the chairman, as well as an overview of the economic key points and all investors have already received. 

Recommendations for the euro dollar: This player is selling a pair euro dollar Sell on price increases to 1.0780 / 1.0810 and target at the level of 1.0725.


The course of sterling to the greenback today GBP / USD forecast for 1/6/2016

Yesterday's positive PMI data for the construction sector did not have the strong support of the British, that signals the presence of strong sellers in the pound dollar pair. Today, Markit will publish a third report by the UK - this time we will get data on the service sector. This indicator in the past two months shows moderate growth, but today, to see a strong demand for the pound final value must be higher than 56.6 n. (Consensus 55.6). Otherwise, we will again see how investors will increase short positions on short-term rise in prices. We should also note profit-taking on long positions in the cross-rate EUR / GBP. After a six-week upside traders to close long positions, which is supporting the British currency. It is worth noting the fact that the bond market is now set against the Bulls on the pound: the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets. It is impossible to ignore the report, which today publishes US Department of Energy. Market participants predict that crude oil inventories fell by 0.5 mln. Barrels and if such a scenario is realized in practice - we expect growth of quotations of the black gold, which in turn adversely affect the value of the US currency. In general, the commodity market is now seen positive mood - rising quotations of industrial and precious metals, which indicates the continuation of a correctional phase. 

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair: Today traders for the sterling bass worth the wait to the flat trading within the range of 1.4620 -1.4735.


The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY forecast for 01/06/2016

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Yesterday, the stock markets of Europe and North America, the leaders of growth were the shares of utilities and consumer goods. High-yield cross-rates from the beginning of the trading week also show weakness. This positioning signals the reluctance of traders to build positions carry trade. Against this background, we see the flight of capital into "safe assets" - primarily gold and the Japanese yen. As noted earlier, the chances that today the United States will be pleased with the market participants positive macroeconomic statistics are relatively small and therefore, during the day we can expect the downtrend to continue.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today the players in the forex market is to sell a couple Sell on the growth of the dollar, the yen to levels of 119.35 / 119.70 and closed at 118.90 transaction.

Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»



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