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Main » 2016 » June » 1 » Forex forecast for today 01.06.2016: GBP - referendum approach increases volatility!
Forex forecast for today 01.06.2016: GBP - referendum approach increases volatility!



Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 


After a weak adjustment in the beginning of the week, yesterday the pair eevro / dollar continued to decline and was fixed at 1.1135 support level.Demand for the US currency continues to be high. The dollar index against a basket of 6 major currencies listed within the band 95.52 - 95.97, which determines the overall downward trend for this pair.



Proposals Mario Draghi to strengthen the quantitative easing economy Evrozonydayut results. Chances are that the ECB economists forecast which will be published tomorrow, will enhance the assessment of inflation prospects.


On 8 formed technical characteristic figure of the hourly chart. 50-period moving average crossed the 200-period trend line from top to bottom. This is a very strong signal, which indicates the continuation of the downward trend of the united currency in the near future. Themselves quotations currency pair below the moving average, also confirm this.

What today has an impact on the currency pair?

First of all, today in the afternoon, will be published index of business aktivnostiISM, which is based on a survey of about four managers in the US purchasing. It assesses the level of the economic health of the industry. The forecast level of the index is above 50, which indicates a strengthening of the US industry. If the forecast is expected to confirm the movement of quotations pair down by 20-40 points.

In anticipation of the ECB's decision on the deposit rate and the press conference Chairman of the monetary policy of the euro area, which will be held on Thursday, the euro will continue to fall in price. According to analysts the ECB is not to change the interest rate, but inflation forecasts will be reviewed against the background of rising oil prices and the return of the economy to pre-crisis levels for the first time since the beginning of the implementation of the quantitative easing program.

These factors indicate the continuation of the downward trend for the pair EUR / USD. It is possible that the pair close to the strong support level of 1.1074.

In the event of breakdown following levels will be at levels 1.1057 and 1.0985.

In the case of correction the pair will move to the resistance level at 1.1191, and possibly to the next level of 1.1213.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The British pound  continues to show high volatility. Since the beginning of the week it was about 160 points.Approaching a referendum on leaving the UK from the European Union glows situation surrounding its possible consequences.

Results of last week showed an increase in British currency quotations from the 1.4476 level to the 1.4729 level. And all this against the background of the publication of quarterly GDP of the United Kingdom on Thursday, May 26, and a small adjustment to the level of 1.4604 at the end of the week.

Today's trading also expected volatility. On the 8-hour chart the 50, 100 and 200-period moving averages are below quotations and directed upward, confirming the forecast of growth of quotations of the pair.

Today, a significant factor likely to affect the quotes will be published PMI manufacturing index in the United Kingdom. The index is published monthly on the first working day, and is based on a survey of 600 leading purchasing managers. It is a leading indicator of economic health of the manufacturing industry of the country.

According to the forecasts it is expected to slow development of the industry. Previous publications of the index given the volatility of 150-200 points in the first hour after the reporting. But against the background of the publication of the same index in the United States and strengthening the American economy today, the reaction can be multidirectional.

the pair continued upward trend can test the resistance level at 1.4717. In the case of breakdown the next frontier - 1.4749. Lines of support are quotes 1.4588 and 1.4488. In the case of overcoming the next strong level is at 1.4444.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold today

XAU \ USD, 4:00.

The results of last week's trading in gold showed a steep dive. The price of gold fell by almost $ 40, breaking a major support level of $ 1229.4. Earlier this week, it has been tested abroad support $ 1202.7, after which the price corrected to $ 1215 item.

Two strong factors continue to put pressure on the gold price above.

The first - the performance of Janet Yellen, who confirmed the possibility of raising interest rates by the Fed's June session. This strengthens and increases the attractiveness of the dollar relative to other currencies and commodities.

The second - a sharp reduction in net long positions of traders at the end of last week, which has become the highest in the last 10 years.

On the 8-hour chart 50 and 100-period moving crossed the 200-period. This characteristic signal, and that the quotes are trading significantly below average, continuing the downward trend for the pair of gold / dollar.

At present, formed the support level $ 1202.7. In the event of breakdown may continue movement to the borders of 1191.3 and $ 1175.2 $.

If the price adjustment will continue, we can expect resistance testing position at the Quote $ 1222.2. The next levels are 1234.5 and $ 1249.5 $.

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Forex. The forecast for oil (WTI) for today.

OIL WTI, for 1 hour.

Today's trading in crude oil continue to test the psychological barrier of 50 dollars. On the eve of tomorrow's summit of OPEC quotes have a great chance to finish the formation of the major uptrend for 4 months.

From the meeting in Vienna tomorrow is not expected to achieve a production level of frozen arrangements.Saudi Arabia, a major player in the market is unlikely to agree to reduce its share in the background of the gradual growth in production level in Iran.

The recent publication of a decrease in the number of active rigs in the United States, as well as reducing production in Canada and Nigeria supported the uptrend price.

But today there is a strong factor acting in the opposite direction. In the US shale industry a lot of drilled and abandoned wells. In the event that oil will stay above $ 50, their profitability will be sufficient for the commissioning. This can increase the production of oil in the USA at 400,000 barrels a day, according to Citigroup analysts. Therefore, today's rise in oil prices may be short-lived.

In addition to the psychological resistance level at $ 50, the next will be $ -50.40.

If the trend will unfold, then the expected support price is 49.06 dollars. In the case of the mark following the breakdown - $ 48.83 and $ 47.75.

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