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Main » 2016 » January » 5 » Forex forecast for today 01/05/2015: Black currency market on Monday was!
Forex forecast for today 01/05/2015: Black currency market on Monday was!

Currency market forecast for January 5, 2016, EUR / USD

News forex traders today:

12.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the construction sector in December (the previous value of 55.3, forecast 56.1).

13.00 MSK. Eurozone: Evaluation of the consumer price index for January (the previous value of 0.2% y / y; the forecast of 0.4% y / y).



The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD forecast for 1/5/2015

On the first day of the new year on forex trade was conducted with high volatility. The reason for this weak data from China and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Despite the rise in the dollar on Monday - Today the euro in tandem with amrikantsem formed a mixed background. Weak preliminary data on inflation in Germany in December suggest that today we do not expect a pan-European index better than the consensus forecast, which plays into the hands of the sellers evro.Dannye States disappoint. The ISM manufacturing sector for two consecutive months below 50%, indicating a slowdown in business activity. In December the index fell to its lowest level since June 2009. The price component of the index for 14 consecutive months below the 50% mark of 13 out of 18 industries reported about the price cuts. Since industrial production is coincident economic indicator - the downtrend for two months in a row indicates a reduction in the volume of real GDP is negative for the dollar. Capital flight from "risky assets" also do not leave unattended. Yesterday, there were massive sell-off in equity markets in Asia, Europe and North America, and it is positive for the euro, the yen and gold as a safe asset. 

Recommendations for euro dollar: Today, traders on the euro to the dollar during trading should not expect sideways trading in the 1.0770 -1.0880.


The course of sterling against the dollar today GBP / USD forecast for 1/5/2015

The pair Pound Dollar currency market players in the first half of the session is waiting for a moderate upward correction against the background of positive data on the PMI for the construction sector. Net mortgage lending in November was 3.9 bln. Pounds, which is 85.7% more than in the same period in 2014. In the first eleven months of 2015 the growth of mortgage lending was 29.6%. The number of mortgage approvals in November 2015 amounted to 70.4 thous., Which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. Mortgage market main driver of growth of real estate sector and taking into account the positive dynamics of today is to wait for the PMI data for the construction sector within the consensus forecast, which will support the British. But this short-term growth rate of the pound, is used to open short positions. On the debt market is still pessimistic about the British assets: the yield on 10-year British government bonds lower against the American and German. 

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair: Today traders Briton with greenbacks in trading forex is to sell a couple Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.4750 / 1.4795 and a target at 1.4695.


The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY forecast for 01/05/2015

Yesterday's trading forex investors have been dubbed as "Black Monday." The last "black monday" in the financial markets was August 24 - when the fault began large-scale sell-off in the stock market of China. Once again, the trouble came from China. After the release of Markit data on business activity in the industrial sector - the CSI 300 stock index fell by 7%, while the yuan has fallen by more than 2%. PBOC no choice, how to go on a smooth devaluation of the national currency, based on the future of revival of economic growth through increased exports and reduced imports. These events caused a flight of capital from "risky assets" as investors hastily closed the purchase of shares and high-yield cross rates. Closing the carry trade deals is traditionally the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Given the fact that large-scale sell-off does not end in a single trading day - today we can again expect a withdrawal of capital in the "safe haven". 

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair: Today traders dollar with the yen at the auction is open to sell a couple Sell on growth rate USDJPY to 119.65 / 120.05 and 119.05 at Target.



Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»


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