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Main » 2016 » March » 1 » Forex forecast for today 01/03/2016: In Europe, deflation again!
Forex forecast for today 01/03/2016: In Europe, deflation again!

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/03/2016

Yesterday data on inflation in the euro area have been published, according to which consumer prices have dropped to "minus" 0.2% in the region in February, against the "plus" 0.3% - in January.

For the first time since September last year in the euro zone returned deflation. This had a negative impact on the euro, increasing the chances of the introduction of more aggressive stimulus measures of the European Central Bank at a meeting on 10 March.



In addition, the continued fall in prices is extremely alarmed investors because the ECB is buying assets and conducting combat deflation program for a year, and no progress as there was no and no.


After the publication of the data rate of  the euro / dollar  down correction the pair and resumed its decline.From the maximum level of 1.0962 in early trading in Europe, the quote currency fell to its lowest level 1.0859.

Another factor that markets had high expectations and did not load. The summit "Big Twenty", convened for coordinated action to prevent the decline of the world economy, was left behind. The result is zero.

Instead, market participants receive a statement which spoke of the need for financial and structural support in the event of a further weakening of the economy.

Thus, on the eve of the ECB meeting, the market situation is quite dismal. Investors' attention is on this background is switched to the assets of the security zone - gold, yen, US Treasuries, leaving the rate of the euro / dollar traded sideways.

The euro exchange rate against the dollar in the forecast for today, expect the resumption of decrease in pair and try to "bear" the euro to overcome the previous local low 1.0859.

If the breakdown takes place, then the rate of the pair will continue to decline towards the key level podderzhki1.08.

At this level, we expect a reversal of the course of the single European currency to rise to the following purposes: 1.09, 1.0930, 1.0955, 1.0988 and higher to the resistance level of 233-day moving average 1.1026, hour timeframe.

Do not rule out the resumption lift the pair to the above-mentioned purposes and on the current price levels at the opening day trading.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 01/03/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Emotional speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at the Shanghai summit of "Big Twenty" has supported the British currency. The course  of the pound sterling  in yesterday's trading stop loss and resumed growth. In his remarks Carney spoke against negative interest rates and said that among all the major Central Banks of the Bank of England will be the last person to consider the possibility of their introduction into the monetary policy of the state. This attitude of the regulator confirmed to the market that the Bank of England does not seek to weaken the national currency and as a result became a driver corrective recovery couples.

Against this background, the British currency reversed from the low of the European session 1.3835 and closed trading at a price level 1.3945.

The pound against the dollar today in the forecast we assume a short-term pullback pair from its yesterday's rise, and then turn and further growth of the British currency to the following target levels: 1.3965, 1.40, 1.4041, and 1.4074.

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Forex. Gold price forecast for today 01/03/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

Gold is again a favorite of financial markets. precious metal surpassed all major assets, including higher-yielding investment grade bonds the two months of this year, the state. bonds, currencies and major stock indexes in the developed and developing countries.

The reason for this was the rapid dynamics of periodic panic arising in the markets - something about the devaluation of the yuan, then the referendum in the UK, on ​​the Fed's interest rate. Fleeing from risk, investors flee to safe assets, as a result, it leads to an increase in net long positions in gold to the highest levels this year.

At yesterday's auction interest in gold remained. Demand for safe assets has provoked new metal purchases, the rate of which has risen in price on the day at $ 24.37 to the level of $ 1240 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes on the price level of $ 1243 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following objectives - $ 1247, $ 1253 and $ 1258 per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at the level of daylight turn $ 1232 per ounce. If it is passed, in which case it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels of $ 1225, $ 1221 and $ 1214 per troy ounce.

In our forecast for Tuesday forward to the completion of the current rise in price zone 1250 $ 1255 $ ÷, and then be followed by the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.

Forex. Forecast Silver today 01.03.2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver in yesterday's trading as demand. As a result, completed the previous 2-week decline in the price level of $ 14.60 per ounce, the metal quotations resumed their growth.

By the end of the day the price of May silver futures reached a level of $ 14.90, the biggest Asian consumers India and China almost did not participate in this process. The most active metal is bought on the European and US sessions.

Thus, the demand potential is preserved, as evidenced by the dynamics of today's Asian session.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver held by the level of $ 15 a week turn an ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15, $ 15.10, $ 15.25 and $ 15.40 per ounce.

Immediate support for silver settled at $ 14.80 a reversal day per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 14.70, $ 14.60 and $ 14.40 per ounce.

In our forecast for silver we assume the completion of the current expansion in the key resistance level of $ 1.15 per ounce, and then the resumption of reducing the value of silver to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar on Tuesday in the center of market attention will be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be maintained at the same level - 2%.  
Other very important indicators will be the publication of the February index of business activity for the production sector in the United States, Japan, Australia, China, Great Britain, Switzerland and Canada.  
The corresponding figures will be published in the Eurozone, . as well as the region's leading economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain,  
considerable interest will cause the publication ISM manufacturing index in the United States, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in China; GDP volume growth in December in Canada; German labor market data, including changes in the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 6.2%).  
Unemployment rates are also published in the euro area (10.4%) and Italy (11.3%). 
New Zealand is to publish the terms of trade index for . 4th quarter of last year,  
Australia will publish the balance of the current account balance of payments, changes in the volume of building permits issued and the share of net exports in GDP. 
Japan will present the data in January of the labor market, including the level of unemployment (previous rate - 3.3%), the share of economically active population, as well as changes in the volume of capital expenditure for the 4th quarter and the January level of household expenditures.  
in Switzerland, will be released January data of the real volume of retail trade.  
Italy will report on the December GDP growth.  
but in the US will be published the January changes in the amount of expenditure in the construction sector.






Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.

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