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Main » 2016 » March » 26 » Forex forecast for the week of March 28 - April 1, 2016: Sell gold XAU / USD and buy oil BRENT
Forex forecast for the week of March 28 - April 1, 2016: Sell gold XAU / USD and buy oil BRENT

Forecast on Forex week of March 28 - April 1, 2016

Gold forecast for the week XAU / USD 28.03 - 01.04.2016

March has ended and if you look at the history of the last ten years, this month "yellow metal" can not take credit. In seven out of ten cases, we observed a decrease in prices.



Whether this trend will continue during this time? In my opinion, and the fact there are three reasons. The first reason - is the strengthening of the US dollar in the currency market. Investors are increasing their long positions on pullbacks, since the reduction in interest rates in the euro area and Japan causes market participants to go into US bonds, which, although moderately, but still grow in profitability. The second reason - it is the relationship of the precious metal and inflation. Published last week of releases on inflation in the UK and Japan also can not please the "bulls" on the precious metal. At the G-7 economies are still not observed growth in inflationary pressures, which deprives gold strong support, because there is no need to hedge inflation risks. The third reason is the disregard of this geopolitical tensions. Despite the terrorist attacks in Brussels last week, gold ended lower quotations for 3%. Investors ignored the background, which is also a wake-up call for the noble metal fans. 


Gold recommendation of the week : Traders should open Sell position at the price of gold rise to 1225/1245 and the objectives for 1193.


Gold recommendations for a week


Oil BRENT forecast for the week 28.03 - 04.01.2016

Quotes of oil last week closed in the "red zone": the price reduction was 2.24%. In this context, many traders appeared logical question: we can expect a new wave of sales or just a technical correction at all? Personally, I lean toward the latter for three reasons. Firstly, investors are still waiting for key events of the first half years- meeting leading players in Qatar on April 17, and to this date no one will build up short positions. Secondly, Baker Hughes once again reported about the reduction in the number of drilling rigs operating. During the last week of the number of plants was reduced to 15 units in the United States and Canada in one unit. Third, gasoline inventories are reduced for the fifth consecutive trading week. During this period the stocks were reduced by 13.6 million. Barrels. Inventories of crude oil are rising, but the growth rate is more modest than the previous year: the beginning of this year, reserves increased by 45.12 million barrels, which is 44.4% less than the same period last year..  Recommendations for oil traders for a week : Lower oil prices to 40.00 / 38.50 is used to open and close purchases Buy transactions at the level of 42.50.


 Recommendations for oil traders for a week


S & P500 Index forecast for the week

On the new week by index traders should zhdatumerennogo growth of quotations. The final release of the US GDP for the 4th quarter was able to please investors as positive data: the figure was revised to increase by 0.4%. The continuing demand for "black gold" will contribute to the growth of quotations of shares in the energy sector, which will support the American equity market. You can not ignore the outflow of capital from the "safe" assets: Last week, the Japanese yen and gold, has lost 1.37% and 3%, respectively, despite the increase in geopolitical tensions. Capital usually leaves the "safe harbor" in risky assets, which also allows the calculation of the growth of S & P500 index. However, there is also a negative factor. Report on portfolio investment in Japan indicates an increase in demand in the sector of the bonds and capital outflows from the stock market.Japanese institutional investors are among the active players on the US stock market. In this regard, we should not rely on the strong growth of quotations on the week and choose a more conservative approach to trade.


Trading recommendations for SP500 week 28.03-01.04.2016 : Players should buy Buy Index on the decline of quotations to the 2028/2005 and purpose at the level of 2050.

Trading recommendations for SP500 week


Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »


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