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Main » 2016 » June » 26 » Forex forecast for the week of June 27 - July 1, 2016: Brent Oil - three reasons to sell!
Forex forecast for the week of June 27 - July 1, 2016: Brent Oil - three reasons to sell!



The forecast for the week June 27 - July 1:

The forecast rate of gold XAU / USD for the week

Panic in the financial markets - the ideal environment for the precious metal. Historically, gold is regarded by investors as a safe asset. When the storm all markets go into this "safe haven." In this regard, after the correction is necessary to build up short positions, as investors spooked by uncertainty over much of the European and the British economy. S & P 500 VIX fear index rose by 49.33% on Friday, June 24, indicating that the panic on the financial markets. This capital flight from risky assets will now be the main driver for the growth of quotations of "yellow metal". However, the strengthening of the US currency will deter the onslaught of strong bulls, and in this regard, it is difficult to count on the strong growth of gold prices. 


Against this background, this week should be open Buy position on the reduction of quotations to 1310/1285 and take profit around 1345 .




Brent oil forecast for the week

The last two weeks of trading black gold finishes in the "red zone" and, in my opinion, we should expect the continuation of the downward trend. Firstly, Brexit forced investors to sell riskier assets including listed and oil.Secondly, the USDX dollar at the end of last week, the index rose by 1.36%, showed the maximum weekly gain this year. Strengthening of the dollar will have a negative impact on energy costs, as the cost of raw materials denominated in US currency. Third, in spite of the driving season in the United States, where there is traditionally a strong decline in crude oil inventories, as reported by the Department of Energy moderate reduction of stocks. Last Friday, the oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported about reducing the number of drilling rigs in the United States by 7 units and increase drilling in Canada for 8 units, respectively.Canadian oil companies are actively expanding production capacity in the last month, and apparently American colleagues will join them. 


Against this background, this week should be open Sell position on the growth of quotations in the area of ​​49.00 / 50.50 and take profit around 47.30.


S & P500 Index forecast for the week

Brexit it held that spooked investors, who began to get rid of stocks worldwide. The financial sector was the clear outsider on all the world's leading stock exchanges. fear index S & P 500 VIX trading at the end of last week rose by 32.7%, to the level of 25.76. Spread Index may occur in the area of ​​32.09, the highest level this year. Many traders may be a logical idea that the response to Brexit already put in quotes and fall may continue only in European stock markets and the US stock market will live their lives and the current low levels are attractive for purchase. In my view, this assertion is not true, because the stock market, as well as the global economy is strongly globalized and in this regard, the problem on the same continent quickly spread to the whole world. The coming week will be rich in important macroeconomic statistics. It should only allocate a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector from the ISM. This indicator has reached the "bottom" in the first quarter and now demonstrates a moderately positive trend. The growth of quotations of commodities, which is observed in the last five months, helps to increase the production capacity in the energy sector, which should also have a positive impact on sentiment of purchasing managers. Thus, during the week should expect a decrease in quotations, and on Friday, we may see some pullback on profit taking by shorts after the publication of the ISM data. 

Against this background, this week should be open Sell position on the growth of quotations to 2045/2070 and take profit around 2005.


Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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