Rate of gold forecast for the week XAU / USD 7-11 March 2016
Gold prices, traders are wondering what will happen next? Some point to a strong overbought "yellow metal" and predicted correction. Others say that the growth rate of gold is not yet complete and likely to increase the psychological level of 1300. As it is not paradoxical sounds, but the truth is somewhere in the middle.
For a start look at the dynamics of greenbacks, as the price of gold denominated in US dollars, its value is highly dependent on currency quotations States. At the end of last week, the dollar indices lost 0.96% on the back of weak data on the trade balance and the ISM indices for the manufacturing sector and the service sector.To gold has fallen in price the dollar should rise. However, now the US currency in the short term there are no drivers for growth. Macroeconomic statistics in general moderately negative, from March 16 FOMC no investor expects to raise interest rates. Thus, the dollar index USDX basket until the end of the month will be in flat 94.00 -99.00, which is a positive factor for the precious metal. You can not ignore the positive dynamics of the entire commodity market: the CRB index at the end of last week rose by 4.18% - is the maximum weekly gain in the last six months. Investors are building up long positions in commodities, and gold, of course, will receive dividends from this. We talked about the positive factors, now let's talk about the risks. On Thursday March 10 the ECB will hold its regular meeting, where you can expect the easing of monetary policy. This factor, in turn, will support the demand for "risky" assets, and will put pressure on the precious metal as a "safe" asset.
Forex recommendations on gold for a week : Player XAU / USD is trading wait in flat in 1230 -1290.
BRENT price forecast for the week of 7-11 March 2016
On the new trading week at trederov by BRENT two reasons to open long positions.
First , last Wednesday, investors ignored the negative report of the US crude oil reserves of energy. In the last week of February, inventories rose by 10.37 mln. Barrels, the highest level for the whole winter. So weak data had to cause a sharp decline in prices for nef, but negative market reaction to this event was fairly low-key, and after a while began to quote once again show growth. Against this background, one can infer the presence of a large number of buyers in the market, which build the "Long" on pullbacks and do not allow much to leave quotations down.
Second , in the second half of the month (around March 20) in Russia may take meeting the world's leading exporters of oil to stabilize the market. This will be the second meeting, the first held on February 16 in Doha, which participated in the negotiations of the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar. The second meeting is expected of participants is much greater. The first negotiations leading players in the market upward momentum given quotes black gold, expect the same outcome from the meeting, and in Russia.
Trading recommendations for BRENT week : Oil traders at the auction of the week is to buy Buy on BRENT at lower prices to 37.70 / 36.30 and 39.60 at Target.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week of 7-11 March 2016
The growth leader last week in the US stock market was the energy sector, which quotes rose by 7.66%. And this despite the fact that most of the energy companies have shown weak quarterly reports. Revenue and profit of the company data falls on the background of lower commodity prices. It is impossible to ignore the published releases from the ISM for the manufacturing and service sectors. Industrial PMI for the fifth month in a row is below 50%, indicating that the decline in business activity, and the PMI services sector demonstrates the weakness of the past four months, but the growth of business activity still persists. Against this background, the conclusion that the rapid growth of the US economy came to its logical conclusion, and this year we expect a slowdown in economic growth, which will be negatively perceived by the participants of the stock market. In the new five days is not expected to important macroeconomic statistics and, in this regard, one should pay attention to the dynamics of the debt market. Over the past three trading weeks yield 2-year Treasury bonds rose by 14 basis points to the level of 0.86%, which is a negative factor for the stock market. Yield debt securities and stock market have historically had an inverse correlation. On Friday, the S & P500 was unable to close the trading above the psychological level of 2000 n., Which also confirms this trend. Do not leave without attention and the upcoming ECB meeting, where the monetary authorities of the euro area may go for further easing of monetary policy, which will have a short-term support as the European stock markets and the US.
Trading recommendations for SP500 week : Players should expect from SP500 trading in a flat within the 1950-2050 range.