Forex forecast for the week 14-18 March:
Gold forecast for the week XAU / USD
During the week, we should expect reducing the precious metal quotations for two reasons. Firstly, the ECB held a further easing of monetary policy, which supported the demand for "risky" assets. Eurozone monetary authorities went to the decrease in the discount rate, bringing its level to zero.
None of the participants in the financial markets did not expect such actions from Mario Draghi and his colleagues. Since gold is regarded by investors as a "safe" asset, the increase in "risk appetite" will contribute to the outflow of capital from the XAU / USD. Nor can we ignore the fact that the ECB has lowered its forecast for inflation in the eurozone by 2016 - 2017, GG, which also does not add optimism "bulls" on the yellow metal, as gold has traditionally been used as a means of protection against inflation risks. Secondly, on Wednesday held the central event of the week - a meeting of the FOMC. From the Fed no one expects rising interest rates and the omission of monetary control can not greatly upset the market, since such expectations are already in quotes. It should be noted that Janet Yellen might once again hinted that the US monetary authorities will be ready to raise interest rates at its next meeting. Positive macroeconomic statistics on the labor market FED leaves room for maneuver. Yield 2 Treasuries, which reflects investors' expectations for Fed rates since the last session increased by 12.3 bps to a level of 0.96%. In this connection, we can expect a moderate strengthening of the dollar, which will have a negative impact on gold as the price of commodities denominated in the US currency.
Forex recommendations on gold for a week : the player is to sell the metal Sell on growth to 1265/1280 and the purpose at the level of 1230.
Oil BRENT forecast for the week
The last four trading weeks in a row, oil prices show an upward trend and many traders has matured quite a logical question is: when will the correction? In my opinion, this is not necessary to count on a strong decrease in quotations, and pullbacks, investors will again build long positions for two reasons. First, market participants have two weeks in a row to ignore weak statistics from the United States. Crude oil reserves for the period increased by 14.25 million. barrels when the consensus forecast of 6.9 million. barrels. The deviation from the median was a bit no less 106%, but traders did not think to sell oil contracts, and on the other hand, built up long positions. This pattern indicates the presence of strong vendors who have deep pockets, ready to buy again subsidence on soft news. In the old days, when we saw the sale on the market, such statistics are more than enough for a decrease in quotations of at least 5%. Secondly, the International Energy Agency on Friday revised its outlook on the market. Now the expected steady decline in production outside of OPEC, especially in the US.Making big bets on the IEA review is not necessary, as this organization, though authoritative, yet often change their forecasts. However, this factor can be counted as a short-term positive. Goldman Sachs Bank again adds "fuel to the fire." A month ago, the bank economists actively campaigned for a new decrease in quotations to $ 20 / barrel. Now, a new forecast, which indicates that the "black gold" forms the bottom. This is a highly respected investment bank in the exchange environment, and it is possible that some of the speculators, "listen to the advice" and will close the short positions, which also have a positive impact on energy costs.
Recommendations for oil traders for the week : Investors should buy Buy on BRENT at lower prices to the 39.00 / 37.00 and 41.00 at Target.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week
In the first half of the week is expected to continue upward trend against the background of "risk appetite" of investors. Easing monetary policy of the ECB has been welcomed by members of the European and American stock markets and in this regard, one can expect capital inflows to the equity markets. On Tuesday, attention should be paid to the publication of the retail sales report. In January, average earnings rose by 0.5% m / m, which allows to count on growth in consumer spending, as in the United States the rise in real incomes. Positive expectations and confirms the rising dynamics of the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. In this connection, we can expect the release of data slightly better than median forecasts, which will further support the stock market. However, on Wednesday the trend may change in the evening. On the one hand, from the US Federal Reserve now, no one expects to increase the discount rate, which is a positive factor for the stock market. However, these expectations have been present for over a month, and for the most part laid down in the quotation. On the other hand, at a press conference the head of FOMC Janet Yellen will bypass a strong labor market and will signal to investors about a possible increase in interest rates at the next meeting. Core CPI index last three months is at a level of 2% and, according to the consensus forecast in February, the figure will once again be above this mark. In this connection, the traders of the stock market will close long positions, and we will see the development of the downward trend. The same trend is confirmed by the increase in short-term Treasury yields. Traders recommendations on the index for the week: worth waiting for the flat within the 1970-2070 range.