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Main » 2016 » September » 4 » Forex forecast for the week Forecast 5 - 9 September 2016: Gold - Flete, oil - sale, the SP500 - buy!
Forex forecast for the week Forecast 5 - 9 September 2016: Gold - Flete, oil - sale, the SP500 - buy!



Forex. Weather for week 5 - 9 September 2016


Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week


In the metal at the auction of the week formed a mixed background. There is an increasing "appetite for risk", traditionally a negative impact on quotations of gold, as investors use gold as a safe asset.



World stock markets closed trading last week in the black, just growing and highly profitable sector of cross-rates.Thus, there is an increase in the number of transactions carry trade and against this background, market participants derive capital from safe assets. Although, the forex traders should wait for the weakening of the American quotes after a disappointing labor market data in the US in August, gold is a positive signal. The cost of the precious metal is denominated in US dollars and when the US currency drops, gold price gradually go up. 


Gold traders recommendations for the week : Investors in gold at the auction of the week should not expect sideways trading range in the flat in district amkah range of 1307 -1337.




Brent oil forecast for the week


Investors in oil, at the beginning of the new week of trading on profit taking on positions of gentle worth waiting for corrective upside black gold prices. On Friday, market participants after weak macroeconomic data from the United States began to close the sale, and in the first half of the week week should expect to continue this trend. Then, is likely to continue decline. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes once again reported about the growth of the US drilling rigs by one, to the level of 407. It seems, nothing critical about it. But it is worth remembering press releases of the leading American companies in oil shale mining (Devon Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources), who claimed to increase investment in new drilling rigs in September. September has arrived and the new week the rig growth is likely to accelerate. We should not forget the seasonal factor: the US driving season is coming to its logical conclusion, it traditionally attracts the growth of oil reserves. Stocks usually fall in August and grow moderately in September, this year up to August crude oil reserves have increased by 3.3 million barrels.. For example, in September 2015 oil inventories rose by 2.4 mln. Barrels. Growth stocks is a negative factor for oil quotations and after upward correction, investors may again start to form shorts at attractive levels. 


Oil recommendations for the week : oil investors in the new week is selling Brent Sell on the growth of quotations to 47.20 / 48.00 and take profit around 45.45.




S & P500 Index forecast for a week for investors


The US market is ready to establish a new historical maximum. The chances of such an outcome have increased after the release of NFP data on the labor market in August. Market participants do not see strong data, which could clearly talk about increasing the interest rate on the DCF meeting on 21 September. Stock Market Traders were relieved and ready to conquer new peaks. Increasing interest rates have traditionally painful perceived by investors on the NYSE, and today they can safely open long positions. Should we expect a strong growth of quotations, or after a new peak, we will see a downward spiral? There are two reasons for the development of the second scenario. 


First, P / E multiple for the S & P500 index is now at historical highs, and at any time a strong correction may happen. 


Second, September bad month for the US stock market. Over the past five years, four out of five market closed in the red. Last year, a decrease of quotations in September was 2.72%. But this background, institutional investors first can chase the market up to sell the assets at the top of the retail traders.


S & P500 Index recommendations : Shopping Buy's reduction of quotations to 2175/2165 and take profits around 2194. Then, open positions and take profits Sell around 2170.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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