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Main » 2016 » August » 28 » Forex forecast for the week 29 August to 2 September, 2016: Investors, oil and gold - selling!
Forex forecast for the week 29 August to 2 September, 2016: Investors, oil and gold - selling!



Forex. Weather for the week 29 August to 2 September 2016


Gold XAU / USD forex forecast for the week:


Investors in gold on a new week is to sell the metal as greenbacks formed by a steady upward trend, it is traditionally perceived negatively by investors who conduct transactions in gold.



As a joke, gold traders call the "anti-dollar". Why wait for the growth of the dollar? The main driver of growth of profitability will make 2-year US Treasury bonds, which is closely correlated with the Fed rate. Today is the yield at the maximum in the last two and a half months, which suggests USDX Dollar Index increased by 2% from current levels. After the speech, Yellen on economic symposium in Jackson Hole yield of short-term treasury securities went up sharply. 


The main thesis of my head of the US Federal Reserve:

- Grounds for a rate hike have increased in recent months. 
- The US economy is close to the maximum target employment and stability. - The economy continues to grow due to the strong increase in household expenditure.


Which of this conclusion? The Fed is ready to raise rates this year, despite the fact that many investment banks do not expect this step due to increased external risks (GDP growth slowing in China and Brexit). 


XUA / USD recommendation of the week: Gold Investors in the new week is to sell Sell on the growth of quotations to 1322/1334 and take profit around 1307 .



Brent oil forecast for the week 29.08-02.09.16

Investors in oil in a new week, three reasons to build up short positions on pullbacks . 


First , once again there is no unity in OPEC, it would put pressure on share prices, since mid-August, traders were buying black gold, waiting for freezing production levels at a meeting in Algeria, to be held in late September. For investors comes disappointment. Iran has announced its readiness to participate in this summit, but to freeze the level of their production will not be as a country in dire need of financial resources, and the sale of hydrocarbons to the main source of financing the budget. OPEC Secretary Mohammed Barkindo said the market do not help - it will adjust itself. In other words, no action is taken - it is necessary to live according to the law of supply and demand. 


Second , in the United States are growing stocks of crude oil, gasoline and distillates, is traditionally perceived negatively by investors. In the US driving season, and in this period, oil and petroleum products should be reduced, but the picture is different. Over the past 5 weeks, crude oil inventories increased by 4.13 million. Barrels. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday indicated that the number of drilling rigs in the United States remained the same 406 units, with an increasing number of platforms in Canada by 19 units, to a level of 84. It is worth noting that three months ago in Canada operated 14 drilling rigs . Oil is growing in Canada and the United States the main market. Against this backdrop, the US market supply of oil will increase again, and demand is still not keep up with this trend.


Third, the rising dollar on the forex traditionally puts pressure on the price of raw materials, as the price of oil is denominated in dollars. 


Oil Brent recommendations on weekly oil investors in the Navoi week is to sell Sell an asset to the growth of quotations in the area of 50.10 / 52.00 and take profit around 47.80



S & P500 Index forecast for the week 29.08-02.09.16


index of wide market S & P500 trading last week closed down 0.62%, the maximum drop in the past two months. Market participants take profits on long positions, as the rise in interest rates in the credit markets. Today we see a banal process of shifting assets: capital withdraw from the stock market to the bond market. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bonds since the beginning of the second half of the year increased by 0.26%, while the S & P500 index over the same period increased by 3.39%, setting a new historical maximum. P / E of the total market at the level of 25.27, while in the last year figure was 19.86. The company's profit decreases and the price increases - a process called "inflating the bubble." Against this background, perhaps soon we will see a strong correction in the 10-155 level with the historical high or moderate correction in the range of 2-4%. 


S & P500: recommendations of the week: Investors in S & P500 Index is a broad sell Sell market growth of quotations to 2174/2186 and take profit around 2153.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst FreshForex

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