Forex Forecast for the week November 23-27:
The price of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week
On Tuesday November 24 necessary to open short positions in precious metals, for two reasons. Firstly, this day will be published the second estimate of US GDP for the third quarter. Revised data for most macroeconomic indicators point to a possible revision of the index upwards.
A positive report would support the dollar, as have less than a month, a meeting of the Federal Reserve where monetary control can go on raising interest rates. The more strong data we will receive in the remaining time until December 16, the more confidence investors will change with respect to monetary policy in the United States. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds, which reflects expectations for interest rates FED, for five consecutive trading weeks shows an upward trend that will certainly be a positive effect on the value of the dollar and, in turn, will put pressure on the gold price. Secondly, on the agenda still is the question of a significant imbalance of the global supply and demand on the oil market. Investors are already beginning to "lay in quotes" factor of negative outcome of OPEC meeting. All last week in the news there were hearings on the topic that the OPEC summit in Vienna in early December, the parties will not agree to reduce production quotas.In my opinion, these rumors are viable, given the failure of the last meeting in mid-October, as well as increasing production key players. Thus, the fall in oil prices will help reduce inflation expectations, which ultimately will reduce the price of gold XAU / USD.
Recommendations for traders of gold a week: For the new trading week, traders should sell gold Sell XAU / USD to rise in prices for 1081/1091 and purpose on 1065.
Platinum, palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week
At the auction of the week for speculators platinoids not wait predominance bullish sentiment. On the last trading day of the week, Britain has reported a significant increase in car production in the first ten months of this year. This is not surprising, since the positive dynamics contributes to a strong labor market: income growth helps to increase consumer spending. This fall, the positive trend in the automotive industry is also observed in the United States and China, but the platinum group metals have ignored this factor against the backdrop of the global decline in prices on the commodity market. It should also be noted that the strong labor market data in the US in October (fall in unemployment to the level of 5%, and the growth of average earnings by 0.4% compared to September) will contribute to the demand for cars in during November and December, which should also provide support for platinum group metals. In our previous review it pointed to a possible stabilization of the market of industrial metals, but in the period from 16 to 20 November for the correction XPT / USD and XPD / USD was fairly low-key.
Recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: Traders on PGMs is to buy Buy for XPT / USD on the price reduction to 849/839 and 879 aim to buy Buy for XPD / USD on dips to 553/543 and 579 profit.
S & P500 index forecast for the week
On the new week in the first half of trading on the index traders there are two reasons to wait for the predominance of "bulls".
Firstly, on Tuesday will be published the second estimate of GDP for the third quarter and you can expect a review of the index upwards against the background of positive macroeconomic indicators refined.
Secondly, last week, there was steady demand for "risk assets" on all continents, enabling customers to test the strength of the psychological level of 2100. But then, perhaps, traders waiting for the downward movement against the background of the closure of long positions. Positive GDP release on the one hand will support the stock market in the short term, and the other will add downside risks as the debt market can be expected to increase the yield of two-year Treasury bonds. At the end of the last trading week yield "two-year" increased by 10 bps and the continuation of an upward trend will force stock traders close "Long". Historically, the strong growth in bond yields perceived negatively by investors in the securities market, as increased expectations of tighter monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It is impossible to ignore the reduction in net profit of the majority of leading corporations in the background of a revaluation of the national currency. Dollar index basket close to the maximum value of the current year (100.27) and the continuation of the upward trend will have a negative impact on the financial performance of US corporations in 2016, and the market, as it is known, takes into account all the factors in advance.
Recommendations traders SP500 week: According to the index in the new week traders should wait lateral trade between 2040 -2115.