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Main » 2016 » March » 20 » Forex forecast for the week 21-25 March 2016: Traders buy oil!
Forex forecast for the week 21-25 March 2016: Traders buy oil!

Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 21-25.03.2016

Commodities are in steady demand, but the "yellow metal" is beginning to take their positions. On the positive influence exerted gold decline of the US currency over the past three weeks the dollar index basket (USDX) has lost 3.15%. And inflation expectations, against the backdrop of rising energy prices. As we can see positive background remains the same: the dollar fell after the FOMC meeting, and oil, in spite of the correction in the first half of last week, was able to complete trades in the "green zone". So, you need to open a Buy position and wait for the growth of quotations?  



In my opinion, no. This is a positive background is able to provide short-term support for the precious metal, you want to use to open Sell position. "Growth" risk appetite "will put pressure on gold as a" safe "asset. In March, it formed a positive environment for global equity markets: The ECB went on further easing of monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve lowered its forecast to raise interest rates. When two leading central bank maintain "a policy of cheap money" - the bulls rush to stock exchanges and buying shares. Dynamics XAU / USD and S & P500 index confirms this trend: in the last five weeks of trading gold gained weight 1.36%, while the broader market index on weight by 9.74%. 


Against this background, during the day should be opened Sell position on the growth of quotations to1262/1276 and take profits at the level of 1227.




BRENT price forecast for the week 21-25.03.2016

Oil shows price growth over the past five trading week and investors are actively buying back subsidence, indicating a steady uptrend. In my view, this week should be open Buy position for two reasons. First, the US Federal Reserve lowered its forecast change in interest rates for the current year, which is a negative factor for the dollar and positive for the black gold as the price of oil is denominated in US currency. If in December, the Fed was planning to raise interest rates in 2016 to 1%, now expected to increase by 0.5%. Second, the key players of the global market agreed to meet in Doha on 17 April to reach a consensus on freezing oil. Now investors continue to increase their long positions ahead of the summit, which contributes to the growth of quotations. You can not ignore the reduction of stocks of gasoline in the United States. Over the past four weeks, inventories fell by 8.97 million. Barrels. 

Thus, positive background is maintained and in this regard, it should be open Buy position on the reduction of quotations to 40.70 / 39.70 and take profit around 42.50.


S & P500 Index forecast for the week 21-25.03.2016

On Monday, we can not exclude reduction of quotations as overdue technical correction: index quotes grow last five trading weeks, however, this reduction should be used to build long positions. US Fed did not disappoint members of the US stock market. Monetary authorities are reluctant to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which plays into the hands of "bulls". The yield on two-year Treasury note, which reflects the expectations of FED rate and moves out of phase with the stock market, at the end of last week decreased by 0.11%. In my view, this factor is positive in the short term, before the season of corporate reporting, which starts in two weeks. The second week in a row in the American stock market is dominated by the energy sector, which pulls up the market: the growth of quotations of oil contributes to a strong demand for the shares of the oil and gas sector. As noted earlier: on "black gold" retained a positive background and can be expected to continue the upward trend. 

Against this background, during the week should Buy position on the reduction of quotations to2028/2005 and take profit around 2060.


Aleksandr Goryachev


Analyst « FreshForex »
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