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Main » 2016 » June » 18 » Forex forecast for the week 20 - 24 June 2016 Brent: the second wave correction
Forex forecast for the week 20 - 24 June 2016 Brent: the second wave correction



Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week

The last three weeks of trading gold completed in the "green zone" on the background of capital flight from risky assets. Brexit may happen as early as this Thursday, and then we can see the mark of $ 1,400 / ounce. Otherwise, we can expect a strong decline in precious metal prices.



How to trade in this case? As uncertainty is very high, it is reasonable to wait for the outcome of the referendum in the UK and then to open trading positions. It should be noted that whatever the outcome of the market reaction will be very strong and prolonged, and every trader can capitalize on this event. However, if the United Kingdom will remain as part of ES, the gold sales will be stronger, because the precious metal has increased significantly in recent years and is at high levels.

Trading recommendation on gold for the week:

Buy, when leaving the UK from ES June 23 with take-profit $ 30.

Sell, if the United Kingdom will remain in the ES June 23 with take-profit $ 50.


Brent oil forecast for the week

So, the first wave of a downward correction of the maximum level of seven months passed. In my opinion, within a week we should expect a second wave correction. The main driver for the decrease in quotations are the expectations for production growth in the United States. Friday's release of oil services company Baker Hughes once again disappointed investors: The number of drilling rigs in the US increased by 9 units, which indicates an increase in production volume. It should be noted that this trend is not a random, one-off - increase in the number of drilling rigs has been observed for three consecutive weeks, during which time the number of drilling increased by 21 units. It is impossible to ignore the decline in Baltic Dry Index (this Baltic Dry Index, which reflects the demand for sea freight costs through the logistics), which indicates the absence of strong demand for raw materials. This index is one of the most objective indicators of economic activity. That review, business activity in the world is still low and therefore, the increase in production volume would have a negative impact on the quotes black gold. 

Recommendations for Brent for the week: Investors in the new trading week quencies Sell sell oil on the growth of quotations in the area of ​​50.00 / 51.00 and take profit around 47.50.


S & P500 Index forecast for the week

Coming weeks can be divided into two segments. First - this time to the announcement of the outcome of the referendum in the UK, the second - this time after the referendum. In the first period of time, in my opinion, we should expect a moderate decline in prices. At the meeting of Fed D. Yellen, in a press conference, said that the UK release of the risk of ES It was one of the key factors determining the decision not to raise interest rates.However, the head of FED added that the Committee can easily respond to the unexpected acceleration of inflation and raise the stakes! Index core CPI for six consecutive months is higher than 2% and the trend is formed fairly stable. Investors go into a "safe haven", which is a negative factor for the stock market. fear index S & P 500 VIX rose 13.9% over the past week, and last month the increase was 18.8%. Investors are very scared Brexit possible and get rid of risky assets. In the second period of time the bidding to determine the outcome of the referendum: if the UK comes from the ES, the nose expects a new wave of sales, otherwise we will see a strong upward movement. 

SP500 forecast for the week: by index traders in the auction of the week is to sell Sell on the growth of quotations to 2078/2089 and take profit around 2055.


Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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