Gold (XAU / USD) the forecast for the week 19-23.12.2016
Three reasons for investors to wait for growth in the new week:
The first reason, according to the US dollar on profit taking on long positions probably worth waiting for correction. USDX Dollar Index traded baskets at a maximum since January 2003, and investors may begin to take profits before Christmas.
The second reason, the likely correction in the US stock market is also a positive for gold. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds 6 weeks in a row shows growth (from 1.83% to 2.6%), and therefore capital can withdraw from the stock market to the bond market.
Reason Three, the world is gradually rising inflation expectations, it is into the hands of the buyers of the yellow metal. In the UK, the eurozone and the US inflation in November rose to a peak in the last two years. Of course, no excessively high inflation in the countries of G-7 is not observed, but the CPI growth may also be perceived as a factor for the correction. Gold falls for six consecutive weeks and overdue technical correction.
Gold recommendation of the week: Buy 1133/1120, take profit in 1143.
Brent oil forecast for the week 19-23.12.2016
The participants of the commodity market, oil is worth waiting for the downward trend against the background of growth of oil production in the United States. OPEC countries and non-OPEC decided all questions regarding the decrease in production volume and this factor has been included in quotes. American oil companies at the same time increase production capacity - production is already at the maximum in the last six months. Baker Hughes once again reported about the growth of the number of drilling rigs in the United States by 12 units, to the level of 510. I recall that at least one year on May 13 at 318 rigs. Thus, for seven months, the number of drilling increased by 60.3%. The players probably should not expect to continue this trend against the background of high oil prices. The dynamics of oil prices and the number of towers have a direct correlation to the US. In this regard, in the development vozmzhno correction area 52, $ 5 / barrel in the next two weeks. That is correct, rather than large-scale sales of oil.
Oil recommendations for the week: Investors Sell 56,00 / 58,00 take profit 53,50.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week 19-23.12.2016
At the auction of a new week, it is worth noting reports on orders for durable goods and expenditure on private consumption in November, which will be released on 22 December. Both figures will be released on the median forecast level, the volume of retail sales showed growth of only 0.1%. It is necessary to wait for the development of the downward trend in S & P500 on the background of a significant increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. First, the yield on 10-year bonds rising past six trading weeks for the S & P500 is a strong bearish signal index. The correlation between the bond yield and index of wide market reversed and now there is a noticeable discrepancy that needs to be mitigated. Second, the current level of profitability of 10-year bonds is 2.6%, with inflation of 1.7%. In this way, US investors receive a real rate of return of 0.9% when investing in bonds than can not boast of investors from Great Britain, Germany, Japan, France. Since this is the last week before Christmas, we can expect a capital withdrawal in the bond market due to the high real rate of return.
S & P500 index recommendations for a week: Sell 2264/2285 and take profit 2237,5.
Alexander GoryachevAnalitik Company FreshForex