Forex. Weather forecast for the week 17-21 October 2016
Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 17-21.10.2016
In the first half of the week the precious metal may show weakness against the strengthening of the American currency. On Tuesday, the release will be posted on inflation in the US in September, which may please investors strong data on the background of the increase in consumer spending, as well as the growth of the producer price index in September to its highest level in 20 months.
Since gold and the dollar move in opposite phase, the precious metal will be under pressure and may test the 1231 mark of $ / ounce. Then you can expect a corrective upward movement amid falling US stock market. Reducing the "risk appetite" positive impact on the value of the yellow metal as a safe asset.
Gold recommendation of the week: Investors should sell the metal on the growth of quotations Sell to 1253/1266 and take profit around 1231.
Brent oil forecast for the week 17-21.10.2016
Investors - three reasons to sell raw materials.
The first published report from the US Department of Energy have on the growth of oil reserves at 4.85 million. Barrels, after a 5-week inventory reduction. Baker Hughes has reported about the growth of the number of drilling rigs in the United States and Canada on the 4 and 3 points respectively. Thus, in both countries, the number of active drilling rigs is at its maximum level, February 12, 2016. Because oil futures are now near yearly highs, the oil companies will continue to increase production capacity, which is a negative factor for oil prices.
Second, last week, the French bank Societe Generale has reported that its customers are actively selling Call options and Put options bought wishing to hedge against a possible fall in prices for black gold. Oil producers do not believe that the growth of quotations of black gold will continue in the medium term.
Third, strengthening of the dollar on the currency market is a negative factor for oil, as energy costs are denominated in US currency.
Oil - advice for investors: In a new week of market participants in the auction is to sell brent Sell on the growth of quotations to 52,60 / 54,00 and 50,20 mark to record profits.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week 17-21.10.2016
Investors - two reasons to sell Sell S & P500.
First , the first week of the new corporate reporting season could not please the traders strong data. Total reported 31 Corporation and the ratio of the better / worse than the consensus forecast of the same. It should be noted that for 5 consecutive quarters there is a decline in quarterly corporate earnings in the United States. In the second quarter of 2016 fell by 5.8%. Thus, the US stock market is overvalued, since the value of the shares and profit are closely correlated with each other, then broke away from the issue price of the enterprise economy and return to their original positions is inevitable.
Second , expectations of rising interest rates intensified in the US, which in turn is also a negative factor for the stock market. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds over the past two weeks has increased by 0.2%, which increases the attractiveness of investment in the bond market and in this context the tools can expect capital outflows from the stock. This is indicated by growth in securities and "protective" utilities sector, which last week was the growth leader.
S & P500 recommendation of the week : Investors should sell the index at a new week Sell on growth of quotations to 2135/2153 and take profit around 2109.
Aleksandr Goryachev analyst FreshForex