Forex forecast for the week 15 - 19 February 2016
Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week
The last four weeks of trading precious metal shows strong growth of quotations on the background of the weakness of the US dollar and the flight of capital from the "risky assets". It should be noted that the S & P500 broad market dipped by 8.78% since the beginning of the year, the dollar basket index has lost 2.8% and the gold for the period increased in price by 16.49%."Yellow metal" climbed very high and in my opinion, further growth without correction will be very difficult.
At least overdue correction, and a maximum spread of the medium-term uptrend. The closest "neighbor" of gold in precious metals platinum during the period potyazhelela at 7.49%, which is 2.2 times less. In the coming week we will report on inflation in the US in January, which could support the US currency. Firstly, a strong labor market has always increasing inflation and in this context, can be expected to yield data on the core CPI at 2.1% median forecast in annual terms. Last Friday we received a positive report on retail sales. Sales volume grew by 0.2% in January, while the December figure was revised from -0.1% to + 0.2%. In this connection, we can expect positive inflation data, which will boost yields 2-year US Treasuries and make the bulls on gold to take profits on long positions.
Recommendations for gold in the week of 15-19 February 2016 : Traders sell the metal Sell on XAU / USD on the growth of quotations to 1245/1257 and take profit around 1210.
XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week
During the week, we should expect the predominance of "bearish". Negative dynamics in industrial output in the countries of G-10 indicates that in the first quarter of the current so do not expect a strong demand for industrial metals. The same trend is confirmed copper, demand for which is regarded by market participants as a strong leading indicator. Last week copper quotes slipped by 3.14%, and since the beginning of the year price decline of 1.78%. This trend is at odds with the platinum group metals, which at the end of last week strengthened more than 3.5%. Another great leading indicator for the global industry - an index Baltic Dry, who continues to update the multi-year lows. This indicator is one of the most objective indicators of economic activity, as the measures the demand for raw materials in real time, while many economic indicators considering what has already occurred in the relatively recent past. Platinum and palladium recommendation of the week : Players should open positions Sell for XPT / USD on the growth of quotations to 960/975 and take profit around 930 and open Sell position for XPD / USD on the growth of quotations to 528/540 and take profit around 510.
Prediction of S & P500 for the week 15-19.02.2016
In the first half of the week we can expect the prevalence of "bullish" for two reasons. Firstly, the positive macroeconomic data on retail sales and applications for unemployment benefits, which we received last week, indicates that it is not necessary to bury the US economy in the first quarter. The volume of retail trade for the "control group" in January increased by 0.6% (consensus 0.3%). This indicator is closely correlated with the indicator of consumer spending, which is the basis of US GDP. Second, 10% of Friday's increase in oil quotations on the background of a moderately positive news background can count on the continuation of an upward trend, which in turn will support the demand for the securities of the energy sector and thus will push up the index quotes. You can not ignore the positive quarterly reports of leading US corporations: PepsiCo and Coca-Cola reported an increase in net profit in the 4th quarter of 20115, compared to the same period of 2014 to 31.29% and 59.74%, respectively. Disney Company announced the receipt of a record revenue in the company's history, which amounted to 15.24 bln. Dollars on a background of the success of "Star Wars" at the box office. Net profit for the 4th quarter of 2015 increased by 28.34% compared to the same period in 2014. However, the report on inflation in January, which is scheduled for February 19 can cool the ardor of the "bulls". As noted earlier, we can expect the release of positive data, which in turn is a negative factor for the stock market. You can not ignore the problems of the European banking sector, which can again cause a flight from "risky assets".
Recommendations SP500 week : Traders should expect the flat within the range of 1810 -1910.