Forex. Market forecast weather for the week of 14-18 November 2016
Forex rate forecast gold XAU / USD on the week 14-18.11.2016
Quotes of the metal closed trading last week, a decrease of 5.8%, this is the maximum weeks of the fall of this year. Initially, the media represented by Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones scared the collapse of the American players and a strong increase in gold if he wins Trump on the US presidential election. In fact, everything turned out the opposite!
The dollar index last week renewed a maximum of the last nine months! The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds exceeded the level of 2%, for the first time since January 29 this year. The dynamics of futures on interest rates Fed points to 82% probability of a rate hike at the meeting on December 14 is the highest level in the current year! What is positive for the greenback, the negative for gold - it is an axiom of the financial markets and in this regard, on the metal market participants should not expect the continuation of negative trends. It should be noted that traders are selling in the commodities market, not only gold, which indicates a strong trend, which usually is prolonged.
Gold Recommendations : Players should sell the metal Sell 1235/1244 with a view to take profit in 1216.
Brent oil forecast for the week 14-18.11.2016
Oil prices closed the third consecutive week trading in the red. But this background, many players a natural question arises: can the trend has exhausted itself down and worth buying oil at current levels? On this week, oil prices continue to fall for two reasons.
The first reason , oil production from the major players in the market is growing by the week. November 11, OPEC has reported an increase in production to 240 thousand. Bar. / Day by the end of October to the level of 33.6 million. Bar. / Day. United States on Wednesday signaled a five-month high in oil production. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday reported on the growth of drilling platforms in the US and Canada on 2 and 13 units, respectively, and in this regard, market participants will again have reported growth of oil supply in the market, which is traditionally a negative for the stock.
The second reason , greenbacks strong growth throughout the market will have a downward pressure on share prices.
Oil recommendations : Players should sell Brent Sell 45,40 / 46,70 for the purpose of take profit 44,00.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week 14-18.11.2016
The US stock market is showing growth, while open position Buy Now players will likely not necessary, as strong growth in Treasury yields reduces the attractiveness of investing in the stock market. Stocks and bonds have traditionally compete for funds from investors, today and bonds show attractive returns for institutional investors that can raise capital on the bond market and promote the outflow of capital from the equity market. In the first half of the coming weeks, players can see the growth of quotations on the background of optimism in the growth of the securities of the banking, oil and health sectors due to the victory of Trump on the US presidential election and the release of positive data on retail sales for October, against a background of increasing incomes. On Thursday, there are data on inflation for October, which will cause new growth of government bond yields, and against this backdrop, traders will take profits on the "Long". On the new week the players to act as follows: if the index is updated historical maximum (2194.4), it is worth to open short positions with regard to the above factors.
The S & P500 : Sell 2194,5 / 2210 with a view to take profit in 2169.
Author Aleksandr Goryachev Analytics FreshForex